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AUB

Auburn 13 at Maryland 31

MD
2023 · TransPerfect Music City Bowl · Dec 30, 2023 · Nissan Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:56 · Colton Spangler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the AUB 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+28.9Score differential+15.0Garbage-time factor+14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Pregame prior−0.8Time remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:58: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +4.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:24: Cameron Edge pass complete to Dylan Wade for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +8.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:34: Payton Thorne pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +15.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:20: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 26 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST down — MD win probability +4.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:05: Payton Thorne pass intercepted Glendon Miller return for 44 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +9.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 8AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:24AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:50AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:19AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:29AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.4%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:42AUB 4th & 4 at MD 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:30MD 4th & 15 at AUB 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:33MD 4th & 1 at AUB 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:08MD 4th & 10 at AUB 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:00AUB 4th & 22 at AUB 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−4.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:33MD 4th & 10 at MD 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:50MD 4th & 15 at AUB 35, up 24
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:52AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:43AUB 4th & 5 at MD 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:01AUB 4th & 12 at MD 26, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:33MD 4th & 8 at MD 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:51MD 4th & 1 at MD 41, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:56MD 4th & 14 at AUB 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:45AUB 4th & 7 at MD 15, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:11MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:58MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:24MD Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:34AUB Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:05MD Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:53AUB Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4141% → 43%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Kaden PratherSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.5%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
41.6%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+61
41.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 61 yds to the AUB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3857% → 56%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
42.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
42.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 1 yd to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
43.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+45
43.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 35 yds, downed at the MD 35 Maryland Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MD 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1544% → 52%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
44.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 14 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
45.3%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the MD 45Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
45.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
45.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+17
47.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 17 yds Octavian Smith Jr. fumbled, forced by Caleb Wooden, recovered by MD Gottlieb Ayedze for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
47.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 17 yds to the AUB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
47.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
47.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the AUB 5Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5649% → 48%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
50.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
51.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
51.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Brandon FrazierSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
52.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:1653% → 64%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
53.3%
Tai Felton run for 16 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+57
54.4%
Cameron Edge pass complete to Kaden Prather for 57 yds to the AUB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.2%
Cameron Edge pass complete to Dylan Wade for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 6:3038% → 28%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
62.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Caleb Burton IIISimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
62.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+5
62.9%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+10
64.0%
Oscar Chapman run for 10 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
65.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 7 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
66.8%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
67.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 6 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q2 14:29
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
67.8%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
68.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
69.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 4 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-1
70.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 48Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
72.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Damari AlstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 4:0376% → 81%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
76.3%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 44Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+15
76.6%
Cameron Edge pass complete to Dylan Wade for 15 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
78.2%
Jeshaun Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+6
80.7%
Edge, Cameron pass incomplete to Howard, Preston, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference 6 yards to the AUBURN36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
80.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
81.5%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-9
82.2%
Cameron Edge sacked by Austin Keys for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
81.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:5022% → 36%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.6%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
78.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
78.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jeremiah CobbSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
79.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
78.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
78.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Caleb Burton IIISimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
79.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
79.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds to the MD 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
78.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
79.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 3 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+15
80.2%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Fairweather, Rivaldo, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference 15 yards to the MARYLAND26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
79.1%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+18
79.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 18 yds to the MD 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
80.1%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the MD 3Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:1272% → 77%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
72.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 26 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
74.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 2 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
75.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
75.3%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
74.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
76.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
75.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
74.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
76.7%
Jack Howes 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:5522% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 26Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-13
80.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Taizse Johnson for a loss of 13 yards to the AUB 13Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
81.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2181% → 81%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
81.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
80.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Eli MasonSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+11
80.7%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 11 yds to the AUB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13INT TD
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2019% → 8%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
80.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Caleb Burton IIISimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
81.7%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+5
81.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-44
91.6%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Glendon Miller return for 44 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
91.6%
Maryland Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MD 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:5092% → 93%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+6
92.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
93.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Shaleak KnottsSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
93.0%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-7
93.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Zykeivous Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 35Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
92.8%
Colton Spangler punt for 32 yds, downed at the AUB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:516% → 3%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
93.8%
Damari Alston run for 7 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 10
0
94.0%
Damari Alston run for no gain to the AUB 10Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+16
94.5%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 11 for a 1ST down Maryland Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
94.5%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
94.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 4 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
94.8%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+5
95.4%
Thorne, Payton rush for 1 yard to the AUBURN36, PENALTY MARYLAND offside 5 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
95.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Perry Fisher for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+2
96.3%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:1097% → 98%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
97.0%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
97.3%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 24Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+7
97.4%
Cameron Edge pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 7 yds to the MD 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-30
97.8%
Cameron Edge pass intercepted Caleb Wooden return for 15 yds to the AUB 46 Auburn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17INT
17 plays · 44 yds · 4:292% → 2%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 6 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
97.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 36Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
97.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 8 yds to the AUB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Caleb Burton IIISimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+4
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 4 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+15
98.2%
Thorne, Payton pass pass intended for Brown, Camden intercepted by Trader Jr., Dante at the MARYLAND25, Trader Jr., Dante return 0 yards to the MARYLAND25, PENALTY MARYLAND roughing passer 15 yards to the MARYLAND37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.2%
Holden Geriner pass incomplete to Damari AlstonSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
98.2%
Holden Geriner pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
98.2%
Holden Geriner pass incomplete to Micah RileySimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.2%
Maryland Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MD 32Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+8
98.2%
Holden Geriner pass complete to Micah Riley for 8 yds to the MD 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.0%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the MD 20Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-1
98.1%
Damari Alston run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 21Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
98.3%
Holden Geriner pass incomplete to Damari AlstonSimilar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 7
OPP 21
-5
98.4%
Auburn Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MD 26Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 12
OPP 26
0
98.5%
Holden Geriner pass intercepted Lavain Scruggs return for no gain to the MD 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
98.5%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MD 8Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
98.6%
Cameron Edge pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 7
OWN 8
-1
98.6%
Cameron Edge sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 7Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 8
OWN 7
+5
98.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 30 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 5 yds to the MD 32 Keionte Scott fumbled, recovered by MD Sean GreeleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
98.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
99.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+18
99.0%
Brenden Segovia punt for 43 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 18 yds to the AUB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:491% → 4%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
99.1%
Hank Brown pass complete to Camden Brown for 12 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+53
99.2%
Hank Brown pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 53 yds to the MD 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4998% → 98%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
98.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 49Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incomplete to Braeden WisloskiSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the AUB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:002% → 2%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
97.8%
Hank Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 13 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
97.8%
Hank Brown pass complete to Camden Brown for 15 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.8%
Hank Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 4 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+24
97.9%
Hank Brown pass complete to Jay Fair for 24 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
97.5%
Hank Brown pass complete to Shane Hooks for 11 yds to the MD 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
97.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the MD 15Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
97.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the MD 15Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
97.9%
Hank Brown pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 7
OPP 15
0
98.0%
Hank Brown pass incomplete to Shane HooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 2:0999% → 99%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
98.8%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the MD 20Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
99.1%
Eli Mason run for 8 yds to the MD 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.2%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:34
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q3 11:05
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Glendon Miller return for 44 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q1 3:24
Cameron Edge pass complete to Dylan Wade for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com