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MISS

Ole Miss 38 at Penn State 25

PSU
2023 · Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl · Dec 30, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:35 · Riley Thompson punt for 51 yds, downed at the MISS 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense−2.2Score differential−1.0Pregame prior+7.1Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:34: Theo Johnson 2 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick) — PSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:58: Caden Prieskorn 37 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick) — MISS win probability +9.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:45: Nicholas Singleton 48 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Alex Felkins Kick) — PSU win probability +13.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: One-score game).
  4. FG · Q3 10:48: Caden Davis 52 Yd Field Goal — MISS win probability +5.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:10: Quinshon Judkins 14 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jaxson Dart Pass to Caden Prieskorn for Two-Point Conversion) — MISS win probability +18.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 14:15MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:17PSU 4th & 4 at MISS 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16MISS 4th & 11 at PSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:17MISS 4th & 1 at PSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:34PSU 4th & 2 at MISS 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:33MISS 4th & 9 at PSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:36MISS 4th & 3 at PSU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−2.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:35PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:33PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:48MISS 4th & 14 at PSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:39PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:07PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:44MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.3%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:54MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:55PSU 4th & 17 at MISS 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:08MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:28MISS 4th & 12 at midfield, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:21PSU 4th & 10 at MISS 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 0:30MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:34PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:58MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:45PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:10MISS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:29MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:14PSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2736% → 36%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
64.0%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 22Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
64.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
64.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 14:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
64.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:4664% → 65%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
64.0%
Singleton, Nicholas rush for 11 yards to the PENNST38, PENALTY PENNST holding 10 yards to the PENNST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 20
OWN 17
0
63.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+18
63.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 18 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+9
63.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
64.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 12 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
64.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+24
64.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 24 yds to the MISS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
64.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
64.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
64.5%
Alex Felkins 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 1:4836% → 37%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
64.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 12 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
64.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
64.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+34
63.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 34 yds to the PSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
63.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-6
63.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the PSU 24Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+5
64.1%
Penn State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PSU 19Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
63.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
63.2%
Caden Davis 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3463% → 62%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
63.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 17Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 17
-1
63.3%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 16Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+12
62.8%
Drew Allar run for 12 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
63.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
63.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 29Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
62.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 48 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for no gain to the MISS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:2737% → 45%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
62.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+21
63.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 21 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
61.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
61.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the PSU 49Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
61.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+15
61.7%
Jordan Watkins pass complete to Jaxson Dart for 15 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
60.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the PSU 31Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+25
60.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 25 yds to the PSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.0%
Caden Prieskorn 6 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4657% → 63%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
57.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 30 Penn State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hunter Nourzad) to the PSU 20Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+75
56.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 75 yds to the MISS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
59.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 6Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
57.9%
Beau Pribula run for 4 yds to the MISS 2Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.4%
Theo Johnson 2 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:2638% → 41%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
61.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 21Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
61.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 5 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
62.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
61.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 24 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
59.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds to the PSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
59.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
58.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the PSU 23Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-5
59.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Victor Curne) to the PSU 28Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
59.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
59.2%
Caden Davis 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1160% → 61%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
60.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
58.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 12 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
60.8%
Drew Allar pass intercepted Daijahn Anthony return for no gain to the MISS 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:4042% → 55%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
58.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 20 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
57.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
55.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
55.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-10
54.6%
Dart, Jaxson pass complete to Wade, Dayton for 32 yards to the PENNST10, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (McIntyre, Reece) 10 yards to the OLEMISS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
55.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-4
55.1%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Jeremy James) to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+8
56.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 8 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+7
56.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
54.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the PSU 37Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
45.0%
Caden Prieskorn 37 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1546% → 59%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
45.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 14 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
46.1%
Beau Pribula run for 12 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
59.3%
Nicholas Singleton 48 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Alex Felkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:0345% → 44%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
53.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
53.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
53.0%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
54.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
55.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Daequan Hardy at the PSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3555% → 54%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
55.4%
Trey Potts run for 11 yds to the PSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
55.7%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
55.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Trey PottsSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-1
53.9%
Drew Allar run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 25Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 51 yds, downed at the MISS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:1946% → 50%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
54.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
53.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
53.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 18 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
50.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 20 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST down lat. to Tre Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1755% → 52%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
55.0%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the PSU 29Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
53.7%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
52.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:2747% → 54%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 14 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
51.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+16
52.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
50.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 15 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
48.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the PSU 31Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-4
48.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Zuriah Fisher for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 35Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 14
OPP 35
0
51.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+52
46.3%
Caden Davis 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5447% → 45%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the PSU 25Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
46.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 3 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
45.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:0558% → 84%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
42.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 15 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
40.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
39.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Hudson Wolfe for 5 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
38.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 48Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+13
38.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 13 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
37.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 12 yds to the PSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
36.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 12 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
35.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the PSU 14Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
34.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
16.4%
Quinshon Judkins 14 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jaxson Dart Pass to Caden Prieskorn for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5322% → 20%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 26Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Khalil DinkinsSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
20.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaden SaundersSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
20.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 54 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 7 yds to the MISS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0684% → 87%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
15.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-2
15.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
14.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 6 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+8
13.8%
JJ Pegues run for 8 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
12.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
12.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
12.0%
Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete, PENALTY PENNST offside (Dennis-Sutton, Dani) 5 yards to the PENNST49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-2
12.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 49Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
12.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Daequan Hardy at the PSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 3:2517% → 15%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
16.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 11 yds to the PSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
16.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 15 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PSU 37Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
17.2%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Drew Shelton) to the PSU 32Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+5
15.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 5 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+13
15.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
50
-15
17.7%
Allar, Drew pass incomplete to Evans, Omari, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Evans, Omari) 15 yards to the PENNST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+22
15.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 22 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+16
18.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 16 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
19.1%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the MISS 39, lateral to Allar, Drew for -12 yards to the OLE39, out of bounds.Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 22
OPP 39
+5
16.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 5 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 17
OPP 34
0
16.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+51
15.0%
Alex Felkins 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Zxavian Harris Felkins, Alex field goal attempt from 51 blocked, recovered by OLEMISS Warren, Caleb at OLEMISS36 spot at OLEMISS36 (blocked by Harris, Zxavian), Walton, Zamari for loss of 1 yard to the OLEMISS35. Zamari Walton return for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1993% → 99%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
7.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 36Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
7.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+12
7.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 12 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
5.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
5.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
5.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 44Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
5.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+37
5.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 37 yds to the PSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
4.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 5 yds to the PSU 2Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.9%
Jaxson Dart 2 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 7 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+19
1.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 19 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
1.5%
Drew Allar sacked by Akelo Stone for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 47 Drew Allar fumbled, forced by Akelo Stone, recovered by MISS Jared Ivey , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the MISS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -7 yds · 0:1999% → 99%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
0.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-1
0.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 49Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-6
0.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 12
OWN 45
-5
0.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
0.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:321% → 7%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
0.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Drew Allar for 11 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
0.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 21 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
0.5%
Drew Allar run for 24 yds to the MISS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
5.3%
Harrison Wallace III 14 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Beau Pribula Pass to Nicholas Singleton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
6.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deantre Prince) to the MISS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:1297% → 98%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
3.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-3
3.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 49Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-1
2.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 12
50
0
1.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
1.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 29 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.1%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
2.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+15
1.9%
Drew Allar run for 15 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
2.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
2.1%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
2.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:10
Quinshon Judkins 14 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jaxson Dart Pass to Caden Prieskorn for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.3
TD · Q2 2:45
Nicholas Singleton 48 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Alex Felkins Kick)
+13.2
TD · Q2 4:58
Caden Prieskorn 37 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com