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MIZ

Missouri 14 at Ohio State 3

OSU
2023 · Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · Dec 29, 2023 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:31 · Riley Williams punt for 38 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 2 yds to the OSU 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+2.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:55: Ohio State Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the OSU 10 — MIZ win probability +5.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 14:55: Cody Schrader run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +26.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:48: Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — OSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:59: Cody Schrader run for 11 yds to the OSU 10 for a 1ST down — MIZ win probability +5.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:12: Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +14.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:56OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:11MIZ 4th & 8 at OSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09OSU 4th & 21 at OSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:47MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:12OSU 4th & 3 at MIZ 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:12MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:13OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:35MIZ 4th & 1 at OSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−1.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:41MIZ 4th & 17 at OSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:37OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:30MIZ 4th & 2 at OSU 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:10OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:38MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:28OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:31MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 12:24OSU 4th & 8 at MIZ 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:39MIZ 4th & 23 at MIZ 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:25OSU 4th & 10 at MIZ 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:22OSU 4th & 11 at MIZ 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:32MIZ 4th & 1 at OSU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−5.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−18.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:02OSU 4th & 1 at MIZ 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−2.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:27MIZ 4th & 1 at OSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q4 14:55MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:12MIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5966% → 66%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 23Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
66.3%
Devin Brown pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
66.3%
Devin Brown pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
66.3%
Ohio State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OSU 18Similar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
66.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 53 yds, downed at the MIZ 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3934% → 34%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
66.3%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+17
66.2%
Brady Cook run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
50
+1
66.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 1 yd to the OSU 49Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
66.0%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the OSU 48Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
65.9%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
66.1%
Riley Williams punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 4:5866% → 65%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
66.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OSU 13Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+7
66.1%
Devin Brown pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
66.0%
Devin Brown pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the OSU 28Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+12
66.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 12 yds to the OSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
66.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 39Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-5
66.0%
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (Josh Simmons) to the OSU 34Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+1
65.6%
Devin Brown pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 1 yd to the OSU 35Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-5
65.3%
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (Josh Fryar) to the OSU 30Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 20
OWN 30
-1
65.2%
Devin Brown sacked by Darius Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 29Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 21
OWN 29
0
64.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 61 yds, downed at the MIZ 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1735% → 34%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
65.4%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+1
65.4%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 17
-7
65.5%
Brady Cook sacked by JT Tuimoloau for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 10 Missouri Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the MIZ 10Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
65.9%
Riley Williams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:2566% → 66%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
66.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 20 yds to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
66.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-4
66.5%
Devin Brown sacked by Jaylon Carlies for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 30Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+4
66.1%
Devin Brown pass complete to Carnell Tate for 4 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
66.4%
Jayden Fielding 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:5034% → 34%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.4%
Missouri Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 20Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
66.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
66.0%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
65.8%
Brady Cook run for 10 yds to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
64.9%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
64.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
64.6%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
65.6%
Riley Williams punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5165% → 64%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
65.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 9Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+6
65.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OSU 15Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 4
OWN 15
-7
64.8%
Devin Brown sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the OSU 8 Devin Brown fumbled, forced by Johnny Walker Jr., recovered by OSU Devin Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 11
OWN 8
0
63.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the MIZ 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 4:2936% → 34%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
64.2%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the OSU 47Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
63.9%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the OSU 44Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
63.8%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the OSU 43Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
64.7%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the OSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
63.7%
Brady Cook sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 41Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-1
64.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 42Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-3
65.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Ty Hamilton for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 45Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
66.0%
Riley Williams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5865% → 64%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
64.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OSU 6Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-2
65.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 4Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+6
64.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OSU 10Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+1
64.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 59 yds , Kris Abrams-Draine returns for 1 yd to the MIZ 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5935% → 35%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
65.0%
Brady Cook run for 12 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
63.7%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
63.9%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
63.3%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Cody SchraderSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
65.3%
Riley Williams punt for 37 yds, downed at the OSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1366% → 64%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
66.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the OSU 15Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
66.1%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+2
65.0%
Lincoln Kienholz run for 2 yds to the OSU 17Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
64.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the MIZ 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1734% → 33%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
65.7%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
65.6%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
66.0%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+56
67.4%
Riley Williams punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 14 Ohio State Penalty, Illegal Block (Calvin Simpson-Hunt) to the OSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 1:0467% → 66%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
66.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 4Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 13
OWN 4
-3
66.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 1Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 16
OWN 1
+16
65.7%
Lincoln Kienholz run for 1 yd to the OSU 2 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Walker Jr.) to the OSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
66.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 17 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
67.3%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
67.2%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to TreVeyon HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
67.4%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Jayden BallardSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
66.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 45 yds, downed at the MIZ 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:1929% → 31%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
70.8%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+17
69.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 17 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
68.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
67.3%
Missouri Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 47Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
68.8%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2434% → 31%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
66.2%
Brady Cook sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 9 yards to the MIZ 16Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+4
66.7%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 20Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
67.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
68.6%
Riley Williams punt for 38 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 2 yds to the OSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:0170% → 67%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
69.5%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 24 yds to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.7%
Emeka Egbuka pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
70.6%
Lincoln Kienholz run for 2 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
69.5%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Brandon InnissSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
67.4%
Jayden Fielding 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:4134% → 32%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
65.7%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
65.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 2 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+17
66.2%
Brady Cook run for 17 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
62.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the MIZ 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MIZ Brady CookSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+3
65.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 15
OWN 46
-8
66.2%
Brady Cook sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 8 yards to the MIZ 38Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 23
OWN 38
+47
68.0%
Riley Williams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 25 Ohio State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nolan Baudo) to the OSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:1067% → 66%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
67.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 15Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
67.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the OSU 18Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+11
66.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 11 yds to the OSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
67.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the OSU 37Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+15
69.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 15 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
71.1%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Gee Scott Jr.Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
70.7%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the MIZ 48Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
68.7%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
66.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the MIZ 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 4:2432% → 65%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
67.7%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 9Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 9
-1
68.0%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 8Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+7
69.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
68.0%
Cody Schrader run for 10 yds to the MIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.8%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Armand Membou) to the MIZ 20Similar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
68.0%
Brady Cook run for 15 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
66.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 50 yds to the OSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
60.8%
Ohio State Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the OSU 10Similar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 5
OPP 10
-5
60.8%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Xavier Delgado) to the OSU 15Similar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
60.7%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the OSU 7Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
34.7%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:2645% → 42%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
44.6%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
50
+8
48.9%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+1
49.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
48.6%
Lincoln Kienholz run for 2 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
48.9%
Lincoln Kienholz run for 2 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-3
48.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 40Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
45.0%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
41.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the MIZ 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 6:0562% → 92%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
37.9%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 12Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
35.8%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the MIZ 18Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
36.3%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
34.8%
Brady Cook sacked by Jordan Hancock for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 14Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+31
35.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 31 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
30.5%
Cody Schrader run for 8 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Josh Proctor) to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
27.6%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the OSU 31Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
26.5%
Cody Schrader run for 8 yds to the OSU 23Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
25.2%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the OSU 23Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
28.3%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the OSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
23.1%
Cody Schrader run for 11 yds to the OSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
22.9%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the OSU 7Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
8.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22FUMBLE
12 plays · 29 yds · 1:5211% → 8%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
10.6%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 18 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
11.7%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
11.2%
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (Xavier Johnson) to the OSU 38Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+7
10.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+7
10.1%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 7 yds to the MIZ 48Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+4
11.0%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 4 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
8.3%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
8.0%
Missouri Penalty, Defensive Offside (Darius Robinson) to the MIZ 39Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
8.7%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to TreVeyon HendersonSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-7
8.2%
Lincoln Kienholz sacked by Daylan Carnell for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 46 Lincoln Kienholz fumbled, forced by Daylan Carnell, recovered by MIZ Joe Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23END OF GAME
13 plays · 40 yds · 2:4395% → 98%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
4.8%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+11
3.8%
Cody Schrader run for 11 yds to the OSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.4%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the OSU 40Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
3.4%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the OSU 35Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
3.1%
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+20
2.1%
Luther Burden III run for 20 yds to the OSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 12Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-1
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 13Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 12
OPP 13
-1
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-26
TD · Q4 5:12
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-14.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:48
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com