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MEM

Memphis 36 at Iowa State 26

ISU
2023 · AutoZone Liberty Bowl · Dec 29, 2023 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-7.9ISU 87.8%Rocco Becht pass complete to JaylinNoel for 23 yds for a TD (Two-PointConversion failed)AWAY 26 - HOME 36 · Q4 9:55
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:55 · Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense+18.1Pregame prior+3.8Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:25: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 29 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — MEM win probability +5.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:19: Chase Contreraz 22 Yd Field Goal — MEM win probability +5.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:38: Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 5 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — ISU win probability +7.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:59: Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 48 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK) — ISU win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:55: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MEM win probability +7.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:53ISU 4th & 1 at MEM 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−0.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45ISU 4th & 11 at MEM 32, up 13
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:22MEM 4th & 10 at ISU 28, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%
    60% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:44MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.9%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:52ISU 4th & 10 at MEM 20, up 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.8 ptsPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%
    75% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:00ISU 4th & 15 at MEM 25, up 16
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.9 ptsPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%
    66% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:00MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 20, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:24MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    68% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:41ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:53ISU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:30ISU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:25MEM Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:38ISU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:59ISU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:01MEM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:55MEM Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4928% → 28%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
72.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 4 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
72.2%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 30Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+70
72.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 70 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:4273% → 73%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
72.7%
Iowa State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ISU 15Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+16
72.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 16 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
72.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
72.9%
Rocco Becht run for 6 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
73.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
73.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+9
72.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the ISU 46Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
72.9%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the ISU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:2928% → 24%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
72.2%
Blake Watson run for 14 yds to the ISU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
72.5%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+9
72.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 9 yds to the ISU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
72.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 24Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+4
72.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 4 yds to the ISU 20Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+8
73.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 8 yds to the ISU 12Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+1
73.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the ISU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
76.2%
Seth Henigan run for 11 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4578% → 79%
Q1 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
78.1%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 2Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
78.4%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the ISU 5Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+28
78.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 28 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
78.9%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 32Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
79.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
79.1%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson HansenSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
78.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 52 yds, downed at the MEM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:4524% → 19%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
76.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 11 yds to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
76.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 18 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
77.5%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+51
81.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 51 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3684% → 81%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
83.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
84.2%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 40Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
84.7%
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
50
+12
85.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
85.5%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+11
85.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 11 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+29
80.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 29 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3822% → 21%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
77.6%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 28Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
77.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Blake WatsonSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
78.6%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Demeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 10
OPP 28
0
79.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:3683% → 76%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
82.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 4 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
82.8%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 36Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+53
82.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 53 yds to the MEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
81.8%
Abu Sama III run for 7 yds to the MEM 4Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 3
OWN 4
-2
82.1%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 6Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+2
81.8%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the MEM 4Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 3
OWN 4
+22
76.2%
Chase Contreraz 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:5825% → 22%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
74.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 14 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
75.8%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
75.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 1
50
+4
76.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
76.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the ISU 39Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
76.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
76.8%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the ISU 38Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+1
78.1%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the ISU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:4181% → 75%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
80.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 30 yds to the MEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
79.5%
Rocco Becht run for a loss of 5 yards to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
78.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+17
79.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 17 yds to the MEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.1%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
79.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
78.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+39
74.7%
Chase Contreraz 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:2230% → 21%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
70.3%
Blake Watson run for 21 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
72.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 17 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
76.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+49
79.4%
Tanner Gillis 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5880% → 79%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
80.1%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 20Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
80.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
79.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 10
OPP 20
0
78.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:4725% → 12%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
74.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 5 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+55
75.5%
Blake Watson run for 55 yds to the ISU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 0
OWN 5
0
80.3%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the ISU 5Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 0
OWN 5
+5
87.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 5 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0089% → 89%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
88.7%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 31Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-5
89.4%
Iowa State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ISU 26Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 14
OPP 26
-6
89.6%
Rocco Becht sacked by Chandler Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the ISU 20Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+5
89.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the ISU 25Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+9
88.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 34 yds , Koby Drake returns for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:5513% → 4%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
50
0
86.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
50
+2
87.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 2 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+48
96.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 48 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:1696% → 93%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
96.1%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 16Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+10
96.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 10 yds to the ISU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
96.5%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 24Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-14
96.6%
Rocco Becht sacked by William Whitlow Jr. for a loss of 14 yards to the ISU 10Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+35
97.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 35 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
97.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 40 yds to the MEM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
92.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Easton Dean for 15 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:4111% → 6%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.2%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 30Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+24
89.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 24 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
90.8%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-3
91.0%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 46Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+17
91.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 17 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
91.9%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the ISU 20Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 20
0
92.0%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the ISU 20Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
92.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Anthony LandphereSimilar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+2
92.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
93.0%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the ISU 15Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
93.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jamauri Chislom for 2 yds to the ISU 13Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
93.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+31
93.9%
Tanner Gillis 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5096% → 88%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.9%
Jaylin Noel pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
95.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 11 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+46
96.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Beni Ngoyi for 46 yds to the MEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.7%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the MEM 23Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+23
87.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19DOWNS
21 plays · 73 yds · 9:1016% → 5%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Sutton SmithSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
85.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+10
87.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
86.2%
Sutton Smith run for 12 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
87.2%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
50
+22
88.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 22 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
91.1%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the ISU 26Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+4
92.0%
Blake Watson run for 4 yds to the ISU 22Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+7
93.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 7 yds to the ISU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
92.8%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 18 Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by MEMSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+11
94.6%
Seth Henigan run for 11 yds to the ISU 7Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 2
OWN 7
+1
95.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the ISU 6Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 1
OWN 6
+2
94.7%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the ISU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 0
OWN 4
0
94.9%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the ISU 4Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 0
OWN 4
+1
94.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the ISU 3Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 0
OWN 3
+1
95.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the ISU 2Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 0
OWN 2
0
95.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Jamauri ChislomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20Uncategorized
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:3898% → 98%
Q4 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+12
98.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds to the ISU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden HigginsSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+15
98.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 15 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Beni NgoyiSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
98.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Easton DeanSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
98.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 11 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-98.2
TD · Q3 7:59
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 48 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q4 9:55
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com