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ARIZ

Arizona 38 at Oklahoma 24

OU
2023 · Valero Alamo Bowl · Dec 28, 2023 · Alamodome
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-3OU 36.6%Tyler Loop 38 Yd Field GoalAWAY 13 - HOME 0 · Q2 13:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:05 · Tyler Loop 38 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense−8.8Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−3.4Pregame prior−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:42: Gavin Sawchuk 18 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +9.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 2:53: Nic Anderson 10 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +12.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:29: Brenen Thompson 63 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +13.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:02: Gunner Maldonado 87 Yd Fumble Return (Noah Fifita Pass to Montana Lemonious-Craig for Two-Point Conversion) — ARIZ win probability +18.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:28: Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 57 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +30.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:57ARIZ 4th & 10 at OU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46OU 4th & 4 at OU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37ARIZ 4th & 15 at OU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05ARIZ 4th & 6 at OU 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:32ARIZ 4th & 22 at OU 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:27ARIZ 4th & 22 at ARIZ 13, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00OU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:11ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 47, down 8
    Close callPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:59OU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 4, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−10.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:28ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:09OU 4th & 9 at OU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:40ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 28, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:49ARIZ 4th & 19 at OU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−5.4
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−11.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:55OU 4th & 4 at OU 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:41OU 4th & 28 at OU 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 10:33ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:42OU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:53OU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:29OU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:02ARIZ Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:28ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:5154% → 54%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kevin Green Jr.Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+40
45.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 40 yds to the OU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
45.9%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+15
46.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the OU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
46.0%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Raymond Pulido) to the OU 28Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-2
46.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 30Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
46.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tanner McLachlanSimilar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+7
46.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the OU 23Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+39
46.4%
Tyler Loop 39 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1146% → 46%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Jackson Arnold pass intercepted Genesis Smith return for no gain to the OU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
44.6%
Jacob Cowing 35 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4145% → 44%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
44.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the OU 25Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 6 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
44.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 58 yds, downed at the ARIZ 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:5856% → 57%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
44.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 16 yds to the ARIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
44.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 12 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
43.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+24
43.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 24 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Jonah ColemanSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
43.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-10
42.9%
Arizona Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joseph Borjon) to the OU 44Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
43.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Malachi RileySimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
43.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0144% → 42%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
43.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+14
43.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 14 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
44.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 35Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
43.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Drake Stoops for 10 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
44.3%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
43.3%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Sexton) to the OU 38Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+2
42.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 18
OWN 40
0
42.0%
Jackson Arnold pass intercepted Gunner Maldonado return for no gain to the ARIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:1058% → 63%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
41.6%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+6
41.0%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
40.9%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
40.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+16
40.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 16 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
40.3%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the OU 37Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
40.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+12
40.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 12 yds to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
39.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the OU 19Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-2
39.6%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 21Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
39.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tanner McLachlanSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
36.6%
Tyler Loop 38 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1839% → 47%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 8 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
39.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 8 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
39.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (McKade Mettauer) to the OU 36Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+7
38.0%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the OU 43Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
38.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 8 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
39.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Tawee Walker for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+4
38.9%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
38.7%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
38.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Jayden GibsonSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+20
38.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 20 yds to the ARIZ 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
47.4%
Gavin Sawchuk 18 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3258% → 58%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 5 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
41.7%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Kani Walker return for no gain to the ARIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
47.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 26 yds Jalil Farooq fumbled, forced by Martell Irby, recovered by ARIZ Gunner MaldonadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:0857% → 59%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
43.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Malachi Riley for 8 yds to the ARIZ 16Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
41.0%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+42
41.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 42 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
38.5%
Michael Wiley run for 12 yds to the OU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
38.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
38.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-12
38.6%
Noah Fifita sacked by Marcus Stripling for a loss of 12 yards to the OU 41Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 22
OPP 41
0
40.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:3242% → 60%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
42.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the OU 10Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+62
42.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 62 yds to the ARIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
46.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 9 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 1
OPP 19
-10
46.8%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gavin Freeman) to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+19
46.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 19 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
46.8%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the ARIZ 10Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
59.7%
Nic Anderson 10 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 1:1846% → 43%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
54.3%
Arizona Penalty, Offensive Holding (Raymond Pulido) to the ARIZ 15Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
54.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 5 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-7
55.0%
Noah Fifita sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 13Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
55.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 22
OWN 13
-2
56.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 57 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:2055% → 55%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
55.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
55.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+10
56.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 10 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
58.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
58.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-1
57.5%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Russell Davis II for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
55.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 48 yds, downed at the ARIZ 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2156% → 70%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.3%
Gavin Freeman run for 12 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
70.0%
Brenen Thompson 63 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0833% → 31%
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.5%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
67.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
68.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 12 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
67.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
66.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 3 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
66.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Jonah ColemanSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
69.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 3:5171% → 78%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
70.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 20 yds to the OU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
71.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
73.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Gavin SawchukSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
72.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Tawee Walker for 6 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
73.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+31
72.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Drake Stoops for 31 yds to the ARIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
75.0%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+15
75.3%
Arizona Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DJ Warnell Jr.) to the ARIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
75.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.2%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
78.1%
Zach Schmit 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1223% → 20%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
76.9%
Noah Fifita sacked by Kip Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
77.6%
Noah Fifita run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0680% → 79%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
80.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 3 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
80.9%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 30Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
80.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
79.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2021% → 18%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
79.3%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+8
81.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
80.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
82.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:3381% → 68%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Austin StognerSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
81.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Drake Stoops for 9 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+15
81.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
50
-10
83.8%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Walter Rouse) to the OU 40Similar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+16
83.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Drake Stoops for 16 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+21
84.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 21 yds to the ARIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+87
68.1%
Gunner Maldonado 87 Yd Fumble Return (Noah Fifita Pass to Montana Lemonious-Craig for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0937% → 47%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Jayden GibsonSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-23
53.4%
Jackson Arnold pass intercepted Martell Irby return for 12 yds to the OU 0 Oklahoma Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (McKade Mettauer) to the OU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23FG
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:5647% → 49%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.4%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the OU 11Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
54.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the OU 6Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
56.9%
Arizona Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) to the OU 6Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-14
56.9%
Noah Fifita sacked by Kendel Dolby for a loss of 14 yards to the OU 20Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 19
OPP 20
+37
51.0%
Tyler Loop 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4554% → 56%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the OU 28Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
54.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 14 yds to the OU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
58.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Stogner) to the OU 32Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+5
54.4%
Tawee Walker run for 5 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
54.8%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the OU 37Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+11
53.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Drake Stoops for 11 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
56.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARIZ 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 4:1749% → 87%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
51.0%
Noah Fifita run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 10Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+7
51.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 7 yds to the ARIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
50.3%
Noah Fifita sacked by Kendel Dolby for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 10Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+15
51.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+16
49.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 16 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
44.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-3
43.8%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+57
12.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 57 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:3721% → 20%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Nic Anderson for 6 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
23.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
22.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 13 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
24.7%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OU 39Similar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 20
OWN 39
0
21.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 20
OWN 39
0
21.0%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 20
OWN 39
+4
20.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Isaiah Ward for a loss of 16 yards to the OU 19 Jackson Arnold fumbled, forced by Isaiah Ward, recovered by ARIZ Jacob Kongaika , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the OU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:4291% → 97%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
9.4%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the OU 19Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
2.7%
DJ Williams run for 19 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:063% → 2%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
2.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
2.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 20 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
2.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-10
2.5%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OU 41Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 20
OWN 41
-8
2.3%
Jackson Arnold sacked by DJ Warnell Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the OU 33Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 28
OWN 33
+20
2.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 20 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:28
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 57 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
-30.9
TD · Q3 0:02
Gunner Maldonado 87 Yd Fumble Return (Noah Fifita Pass to Montana Lemonious-Craig for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.1
TD · Q3 14:29
Brenen Thompson 63 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Zach Schmit Kick)
+13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com