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KU

Kansas 49 at UNLV 36

UNLV
2023 · Guaranteed Rate Bowl · Dec 26, 2023 · Chase Field
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:53 · Marshall Nichols punt for 57 yds, downed at the KU 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior−27.5Home team on offense+1.7Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:15: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +10.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:30: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 37 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +15.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 14:52: Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 40 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — KU win probability +13.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:06: Jacob De Jesus run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNLV win probability +20.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 11:10: Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 56 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — KU win probability +15.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:00KU 4th & 5 at KU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:53UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:16UNLV 4th & 5 at KU 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:03UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:37KU 4th & 11 at KU 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:45UNLV 4th & 19 at KU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:52KU 4th & 1 at UNLV 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−6.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:49UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 46, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:27UNLV 4th & 3 at midfield, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:00KU 4th & 7 at UNLV 22, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:07UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:05KU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:37KU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:57KU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:21KU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:15UNLV Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:30UNLV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:52KU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:06UNLV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:10KU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:16KU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:27UNLV Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:4320% → 23%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
19.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 18 yds to the KU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
20.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the KU 47Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
20.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 13 yds to the KU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
20.3%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the KU 32Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+23
21.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 23 yds to the KU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
21.2%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds to the KU 4Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
21.5%
Jacob De Jesus run for 1 yd to the KU 3Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4577% → 75%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
23.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 9 yds to the KU 36Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-10
22.9%
Kansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Calvin Clements) to the KU 26Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
23.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 6 yds to the KU 32Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
24.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
24.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0725% → 26%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
24.7%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (Alani Makihele) to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-4
24.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+1
25.1%
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+10
25.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 10 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
26.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 57 yds, downed at the KU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 4:3774% → 75%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
26.5%
Devin Neal run for 5 yds to the KU 7Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+4
27.2%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the KU 11Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+2
27.9%
Jason Bean run for 2 yds to the KU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+36
28.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 36 yds to the KU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
27.6%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
28.1%
Quentin Skinner run for 6 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
28.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 23 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
28.2%
Devin Neal run for 12 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
24.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5INT
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:4027% → 30%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.1%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
26.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 15 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
28.3%
Kansas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
28.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
28.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 8 yds to the KU 34Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+4
28.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 4 yds to the KU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
29.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the KU 32 lat. to Timothy Conerly for 3 yds to the KU 32Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+8
30.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 8 yds to the KU 24Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-15
29.7%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Cobee Bryant return for 15 yds to the KU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:3873% → 78%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
27.2%
Kansas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the KU 20Similar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.9%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
28.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 15 yds to the KU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
28.2%
Jason Bean run for 5 yds to the KU 40 Jason Bean fumbled, recovered by KU Jason BeanSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+60
22.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 60 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:0424% → 24%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.9%
Jacob De Jesus run for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
24.9%
Kansas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
25.3%
Jacob De Jesus run for 3 yds to the KU 48Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
25.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 9 yds to the KU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
25.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds to the KU 34Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
26.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
25.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
24.2%
Jose Pizano 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:1077% → 83%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
22.6%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
22.9%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+51
23.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 51 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
20.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for no gain to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
16.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 15 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
17.1%
Kansas Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the KU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
17.2%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Craig Young return for 4 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:5684% → 84%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
16.3%
UNLV Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
16.2%
Devin Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
16.2%
Jason Bean pass intercepted, touchback. Jaxen Turner return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3517% → 17%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
17.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
16.9%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+8
16.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
16.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+11
16.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 57 yds , Trevor Wilson returns for 11 yds to the KU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3283% → 92%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
16.7%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the KU 34Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+11
16.5%
Jason Bean run for 11 yds to the KU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
15.8%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the KU 49Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-1
15.8%
Devin Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the KU 48Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+9
15.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 9 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
15.5%
Hishaw Jr., Daniel rush for 1 yard to the UNLV42, PENALTY UNLV substitution infraction 5 yards to the UNLV38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 5
OPP 38
-7
14.3%
Jason Bean run for 3 yds to the UNLV 35 Kansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 12
OPP 45
+44
14.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 44 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.8%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
7.6%
Kansas Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the KU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13END OF HALF
11 plays · 38 yds · 1:0912% → 13%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
11.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
11.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 1 yd to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-10
11.3%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+15
10.3%
Kansas Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+15
11.0%
Kansas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the KU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
11.3%
Kansas Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the KU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
11.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
11.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+40
12.8%
Jose Pizano 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5389% → 89%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
10.7%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-4
10.6%
Devin Neal run for a loss of 4 yards to the KU 17Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
10.8%
Jason Bean pass intercepted Cameron Oliver return for no gain to the KU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:3514% → 23%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
13.5%
Jacob De Jesus run for 12 yds to the KU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
13.7%
Jayden Maiava run for 10 yds to the KU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
13.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the KU 15Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
13.1%
Jacob De Jesus run for 4 yds to the KU 11Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+6
12.8%
Davis Jr., Vincent rush for no gain to the KANSAS11, PENALTY KANSAS face mask 6 yards to the KANSAS5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNLV.Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3880% → 80%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
20.2%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the KU 16Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
19.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Devin Neal for 3 yds to the KU 19Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
20.2%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 6
OWN 19
-5
20.3%
Kansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KU 14Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+23
20.3%
Damon Greaves punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 48 Kansas Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the KU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
35.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 37 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18INT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3469% → 67%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
30.7%
Kansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KU 16Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+4
31.2%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 4 yds to the KU 20Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 16
OWN 20
0
31.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Kardell for no gain to the KU 20Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 16
OWN 20
0
33.0%
Jason Bean pass intercepted Cameron Oliver return for no gain to the KU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4537% → 32%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-11
36.5%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Cobee Bryant for a loss of 11 yards to the KU 47Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 21
OPP 47
+1
34.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 1 yd to the KU 46Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+1
33.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Vincent Davis Jr. for 1 yd to the KU 45Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 19
OPP 45
0
32.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 44 yds, downed at the KU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 6:4667% → 84%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
32.6%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the KU 5Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+11
33.0%
Devin Neal run for 11 yds to the KU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
31.9%
Devin Neal run for 5 yds to the KU 21Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+13
31.1%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 13 yds to the KU 34 Daniel Hishaw Jr. fumbled, recovered by KUSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
28.7%
Kansas Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the KU 29Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+2
29.8%
Jason Bean run for 2 yds to the KU 31Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+20
30.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 20 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
26.0%
Kansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KU 41Similar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+5
27.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the KU 46Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-2
28.5%
Jason Bean sacked by Darius Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 44Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+16
29.6%
Devin Neal run for 16 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+40
15.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 40 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+15
16.0%
UNLV Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 2:2416% → 33%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
16.0%
Jayden Maiava run for 7 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-9
16.4%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+38
15.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 38 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
17.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 15 yds to the KU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
18.4%
Jayden Maiava run for 10 yds to the KU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
20.4%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+16
19.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 16 yds to the KU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.6%
Jacob De Jesus run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
32.5%
UNLV Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:4076% → 92%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
24.1%
Devin Neal run for 5 yds to the KU 44Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+56
8.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 56 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0715% → 13%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
14.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
14.4%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+8
12.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 8 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
13.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:2693% → 98%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
7.0%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
6.8%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+43
1.8%
Luke Grimm 43 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:324% → 9%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
3.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+15
3.9%
Kansas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
4.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
3.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 5 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
4.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 3
50
+50
9.1%
Senika McKie 50 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26DOWNS
16 plays · 48 yds · 6:1595% → 98%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
5.1%
Devin Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 21Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
5.1%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the KU 21Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+13
5.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 13 yds to the KU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
4.4%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 2 yds to the KU 36Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
3.3%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 3 yds to the KU 39Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+17
3.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 17 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
2.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+15
2.6%
UNLV Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
2.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
2.0%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-1
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-1
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
-7
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:06
Jacob De Jesus run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+20.6
TD · Q4 11:10
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 56 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q3 10:30
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 37 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com