2023 · Quick Lane Bowl · Dec 26, 2023 · Ford Field
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:39 · Mark Crawford punt for 44 yds, downed at the BGSU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 9:20: Cole Kramer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +12.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:18: Cole Kramer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 7 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +11.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:10: PaSean Wimberly run for 18 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +20.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:03: Darius Taylor run for 17 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +8.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:33: Connor Bazelak run for 2 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 7:49MINN 4th & 2 at BGSU 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.1%56% to convertField goal55.8%−0.287% to makePunt54.2%−1.8average punt
- Q1 1:02BGSU 4th & 7 at MINN 34, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.3%37% to convertField goal43.2%−0.147% to makePunt42.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:11MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 43, down 1Close callPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:55BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 15, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it41.9%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q2 8:57MINN 4th & 7 at BGSU 12, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snapGo for it57.6%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call57.9%86% to makePunt53.6%−4.2average punt
- Q2 5:58BGSU 4th & 18 at MINN 48, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it37.6%−1.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%average punt
- Q2 3:49MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 24, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it60.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 2:54BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 34, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it36.7%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.7%average punt
- Q2 1:38BGSU 4th & 10 at MINN 15, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it38.8%−1.227% to convertField goalTheir call40.0%83% to makePunt33.7%−6.3average punt
- Q2 0:29MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 28, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snapGo for it51.1%−1.447% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.6%average punt
- Q3 7:49BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 16, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it25.6%−5.010% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.6%average punt
- Q3 1:58BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 40, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.4%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q4 14:39MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 36, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snapGo for it89.9%−1.034% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%average punt
- Q4 11:50BGSU 4th & 3 at MINN 31, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%52% to convertField goal10.0%−0.654% to makePunt8.3%−2.3average punt
- Q4 5:14BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 46, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.9%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 13:47BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.1%97% to makeGo for two42.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:56MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick58.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call58.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:20MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.1%97% to makeGo for two67.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:18MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.8%97% to makeGo for two85.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:10BGSU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call17.2%−0.497% to makeGo for two17.6%45% to convert
- Q4 8:03MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:33BGSU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%−1.197% to makeGo for two8.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0538% → 39%
MINNDrive 2TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:3961% → 62%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
61.2%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 3 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
60.8%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 8 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+15
60.7%
Kramer, Cole pass incomplete to Jackson, Daniel, PENALTY BOWLGREEN roughing passer (Ferguson, Davon) 15 yards to the BOWLGREEN19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+3
59.9%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 3 yds to the BGSU 11Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.5%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3DOWNS14 plays · 41 yds · 4:4239% → 41%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 3 yds to the BGSU 28Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
60.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 14 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+7
58.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 7 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4260% → 60%
BGSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0941% → 40%
MINNDrive 6FG8 plays · 42 yds · 2:5161% → 64%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
61.2%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 2:3738% → 36%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
61.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 23 yds to the BGSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
60.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 9 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
59.5%
Bowling Green Penalty, False Start (Cedric Dunbar II) to the MINN 45Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-8
60.6%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Jah Joyner for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 47Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 23
OWN 47
+5
63.2%
Lucian Anderson III run for 5 yds to the MINN 48 Bowling Green Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
64.0%
Jackson Kleather punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0165% → 63%
BGSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5137% → 35%
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
63.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for no gain to the BGSU 34 Bowling Green Penalty, Illegal Touching (Yards) to the BGSU 34Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
65.0%
Jackson Kleather punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-28
65.2%
Cole Kramer pass intercepted Darius Lorfils return for 28 yds to the MINN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11FG5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5842% → 47%
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
58.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5854% → 52%
Q2 0:29
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
52.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD13 plays · 78 yds · 5:2957% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2727% → 25%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
72.6%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Tyler Stolsky for a loss of 11 yards to the BGSU 14 Bowling Green Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the BGSU 14Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+10
73.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 10 yds to the BGSU 24Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
74.2%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Jah Joyner for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 16Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+27
75.1%
Jackson Kleather punt for 38 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 27 yds to the BGSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD6 plays · 27 yds · 3:2277% → 90%
Q3 4:18
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
89.7%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 7 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1212% → 11%
MINNDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0790% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:209% → 29%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
89.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 39Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaison Patterson for no gain to the MINN 39Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+8
91.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 8 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+13
92.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 13 yds to the MINN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4886% → 97%
Q4 8:48
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+11
87.2%
Kramer, Cole pass incomplete to Geers, Jameson, PENALTY BOWLGREEN pass interference 11 yards to the BOWLGREEN26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21TD20 plays · 75 yds · 5:225% → 13%
Q4 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
95.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 10 yds to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
95.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaylon Tillman for 2 yds to the BGSU 40Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
95.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 6 yds to the BGSU 46Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+6
96.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 6 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
95.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jaison Patterson for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 49Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+29
96.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 29 yds to the MINN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
96.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 15 yds to the MINN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+1
95.8%
Bazelak, Connor pass incomplete to Tillman, Jaylon, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference 1 yards to the MINNESOTA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22END OF GAME5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4895% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:10
PaSean Wimberly run for 18 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
-20.1
TD · Q3 9:20
Cole Kramer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q3 4:18
Cole Kramer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 7 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+11.1