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CAL

California 14 at Texas Tech 34

TTU
2023 · Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl · Dec 16, 2023 · Independence Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:09 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TTU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense+3.3Pregame prior+9.2Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:19: Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 27 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +3.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:38: Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +5.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:16: Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 15 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +6.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:49: Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 14 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +5.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:36: Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +10.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:08TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30CAL 4th & 2 at TTU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:31CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:09CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:11TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:07CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:49TTU 4th & 22 at TTU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:20CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03TTU 4th & 7 at CAL 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39TTU 4th & 11 at CAL 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:25CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:11CAL 4th & 1 at TTU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−2.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:24TTU 4th & 3 at CAL 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.5%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:10TTU 4th & 9 at CAL 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:10TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:08TTU 4th & 9 at CAL 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:33CAL 4th & 23 at CAL 12, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:14TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:45CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:19TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:38CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:16TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:49TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:36TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
64.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 25 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3364% → 64%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 2 yds to the TTU 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
64.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
64.1%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 36Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
63.9%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+5
63.8%
California Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TTU 41Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
63.9%
Behren Morton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
63.8%
Austin McNamara punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:2736% → 39%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
63.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 12 yds to the CAL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
63.6%
Jeremiah Hunter run for 9 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
63.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 4 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
63.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 8 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
62.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
50
+26
62.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 26 yds to the TTU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
62.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 11 yds to the TTU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
61.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the TTU 8Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-5
61.6%
Ott, Jaydn rush for 3 yards to the TEXASTECH5, PENALTY CALIFORNIA illegal formation 5 yards to the TEXASTECH13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-4
61.5%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 4 yards to the TTU 17Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 14
OPP 17
+12
61.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 12 yds to the TTU 5Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 2
OPP 5
-2
61.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 4:0661% → 65%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
61.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TTU 13Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+5
61.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TTU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
61.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the TTU 14Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+7
60.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the TTU 21Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+5
60.5%
California Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TTU 26Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
60.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
60.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for 24 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
61.2%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Xavier WhiteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
61.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 17 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
61.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 8 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-5
61.4%
Texas Tech Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+27
65.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 27 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:2237% → 43%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
63.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+16
63.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 16 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.4%
Fernando Mendoza run for 3 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+51
62.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 51 yds to the TTU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:5559% → 65%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TTU 38Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
59.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 42Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
58.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TTU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
58.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
59.1%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
58.8%
Behren Morton run for 1 yd to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
58.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
58.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 5 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+6
58.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
58.7%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 30 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Personal Foul (David Reese) to the CAL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
65.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 15 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3338% → 37%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
62.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
62.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
62.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
63.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TTU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:3164% → 71%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
64.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 4 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+41
64.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 41 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
65.5%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Coy EakinSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
65.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for no gain to the CAL 14Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
70.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 14 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3431% → 30%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
69.3%
Monroe Young run for 13 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
68.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
68.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+2
68.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 2 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
69.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TTU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:5471% → 70%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
71.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 22 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
72.4%
Texas Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TTU 38Similar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
71.6%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Drae McCraySimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
71.5%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+7
70.8%
Behren Morton run for 7 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
70.3%
Austin McNamara punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5530% → 28%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
70.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-1
70.0%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 22Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-10
71.3%
Mendoza, Fernando pass complete to Endries, Jack for 18 yards to the CALIFORNIA40, PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
71.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for no gain to the CAL 12Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
72.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 30 yds, downed at the CAL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0774% → 71%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
73.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
73.7%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Mason TharpSimilar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-14
73.0%
Behren Morton sacked by Nate Burrell for a loss of 14 yards to the TTU 46Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 22
OWN 46
0
70.5%
Austin McNamara punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2029% → 27%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
71.2%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Amier Washington for a loss of 6 yards to the CAL 14Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-7
71.7%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Amier Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 7 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, forced by Amier Washington, recovered by CAL Fernando Mendoza , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 23
OWN 7
+12
72.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 12 yds to the CAL 19Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
72.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Xavier White at the TTU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:0074% → 75%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
73.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+23
74.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 23 yds to the CAL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
74.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the CAL 15Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
74.8%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Xavier WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+9
73.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 9 yds to the CAL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
74.8%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Mason TharpSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
74.9%
Coy Eakin pass incomplete to Behren MortonSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
73.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 7Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
75.0%
Gino Garcia 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the CAL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:1625% → 24%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
75.5%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 24Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
75.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 4 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
77.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 8 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
76.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 5 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
76.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 8 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
75.9%
Mendoza, Fernando rush for 1 yard to the 50 yardline, PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+13
77.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 13 yds to the TTU 48Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
75.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Tyrique Matthews return for no gain to the TTU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 4:4779% → 80%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
78.8%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Drae McCraySimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
78.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 3 yds to the TTU 36Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+8
78.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for 8 yds to the TTU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
80.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the TTU 49Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
80.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 4
50
+5
80.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.5%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Mason TharpSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
81.4%
Morton, Behren pass complete to Boyd, Brady for 6 yards to the CALIFORNIA39, PENALTY TEXASTECH ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 15
50
+5
80.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Brady Boyd for 5 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-1
81.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
80.0%
Austin McNamara punt for 42 yds, downed at the CAL 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0319% → 17%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
80.6%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 4Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+1
80.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 1 yd to the CAL 5Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
82.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+24
82.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 34 yds , Xavier White returns for 24 yds to the CAL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:3883% → 93%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
83.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the CAL 7Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
93.4%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:208% → 7%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.1%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Quincy Ledet Jr. and Harvey Dyson III for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 24Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
92.4%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 22Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+21
92.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 21 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
92.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-1
92.4%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+13
92.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 13 yds to the TTU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
92.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 7 yds to the TTU 34Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
91.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for no gain to the TTU 34Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
92.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the TTU 32Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-1
93.1%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:5295% → 96%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
94.6%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 8 yds to the TTU 41Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
95.0%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 4 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for no gain to the TTU 45Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
95.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
96.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for no gain to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+11
95.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Xavier White for 11 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for no gain to the CAL 37Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
96.5%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+15
96.4%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 15 yds to the CAL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
96.5%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 1 yd to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
96.6%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Coy EakinSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
96.5%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
96.2%
Gino Garcia 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:164% → 4%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
96.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 7 yds to the CAL 28 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, forced by Jacob Rodriguez, recovered by TTU Malik DunlapSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.7%
Behren Morton pass intercepted, touchback. Lu-Magia Hearns III return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24INT
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:164% → 4%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
96.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 27 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
95.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 7
50
+18
96.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 18 yds to the TTU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Jacob Rodriguez return for no gain to the TTU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:5497% → 97%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
97.1%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 34Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-1
96.9%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 33Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+5
97.4%
California Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TTU 38Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
97.5%
Behren Morton pass incomplete to Drae McCraySimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Austin McNamara punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:123% → 3%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
96.7%
Fernando Mendoza run for 8 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 2
OWN 27
-10
96.6%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by E'Maurion Banks for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 17Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-12
97.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted C.J. Baskerville return for 12 yds to the CAL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2798% → 99%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
98.1%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the CAL 19Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
98.2%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the CAL 19Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
98.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for no gain to the CAL 19Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
99.3%
Gino Garcia 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:301% → 0%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Joseph Adedire for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-9
99.5%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Amier Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 12Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 48 yds , Xavier White returns for no gain to the TTU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.6%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 5 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
99.6%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 1 yd to the TTU 46Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
99.7%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 3 yds to the TTU 49Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
99.7%
Cam'Ron Valdez run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:36
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 12:16
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 15 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 9:49
Behren Morton pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 14 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com