2023 · TaxAct Texas Bowl · Dec 27, 2023 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreTA&M score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:20 · Nik Constantinou punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:29: Gunnar Gundy run for 10 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK) — OKST win probability +9.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:35: Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Ward KICK) — OKST win probability +7.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:44: Amari Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +13.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:17: Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 18 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK) — OKST win probability +11.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:08: Marcel Reed run for 20 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +14.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 13:20TA&M 4th & 5 at OKST 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it44.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%average punt
- Q1 8:38OKST 4th & 2 at TA&M 2, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.9%48% to convertField goalTheir call55.7%−0.294% to makePunt54.7%−1.3average punt
- Q1 4:34TA&M 4th & 9 at OKST 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snapGo for it42.7%−0.430% to convertField goalTheir call43.1%77% to makePunt41.0%−2.1average punt
- Q2 11:31TA&M 4th & 4 at OKST 7, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.2%41% to convertField goalTheir call37.9%−0.391% to makePunt33.7%−4.5average punt
- Q2 7:45TA&M 4th & 5 at OKST 41, down 11Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it32.4%42% to convertField goal31.6%−0.732% to makePuntTheir call31.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 4:39OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 45, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 70.8% before the snapGo for it71.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%−1.3average punt
- Q2 3:12TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snapGo for it26.4%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.8%average punt
- Q2 1:24OKST 4th & 2 at TA&M 33, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.8%57% to convertField goal74.1%−0.749% to makePunt73.1%−1.8average punt
- Q3 1:48OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 34, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snapGo for it81.5%−3.014% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.5%average punt
- Q4 9:34TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 22, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q4 8:04OKST 4th & 12 at midfield, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.3%average punt
- Q4 5:07TA&M 4th & 14 at OKST 33, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.9%19% to convertField goalTheir call6.8%−0.149% to makePunt6.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:17OKST 4th & 3 at TA&M 30, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.652% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%56% to makePunt92.6%−1.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:21OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.6%97% to makeGo for two60.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:29OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.3%97% to makeGo for two67.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:35OKST Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:44TA&M Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.3%97% to makeGo for two19.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:17OKST Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.9%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:08TA&M Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.5%97% to makeGo for two16.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3054% → 54%
OKSTDrive 2FG10 plays · 85 yds · 4:1747% → 48%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
46.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds to the OKST 21Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
47.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 17 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+30
47.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 30 yds to the TA&M 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+12
47.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 12 yds to the TA&M 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3FG12 plays · 56 yds · 3:5152% → 52%
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
48.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 14 yds to the OKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+22
48.5%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 22 yds to the OKST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
48.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 1 yd to the OKST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD11 plays · 65 yds · 3:5949% → 56%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
48.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 3 yds to the OKST 38Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+10
50.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
51.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 4 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
56.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 13 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5FG9 plays · 68 yds · 3:3946% → 49%
OKSTDrive 6TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4653% → 65%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 2 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+26
51.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 26 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+34
54.9%
Brennan Presley pass complete to Rashod Owens for 34 yds to the TA&M 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 34 yds · 1:3038% → 37%
OKSTDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0164% → 66%
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+15
64.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 8, Texas A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Taurean York) to the OKST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
65.9%
Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shemar Stewart) to the OKST 41Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
67.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 1 yd to the OKST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0333% → 31%
Q2 3:12
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+1
69.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 51 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 1 yd to the OKST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD14 plays · 83 yds · 2:1769% → 79%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
69.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 10 yds to the OKST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+9
67.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
70.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 21 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
71.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the TA&M 33Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+14
69.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the TA&M 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+17
71.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Braden Cassity for 17 yds to the TA&M 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12INT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4381% → 86%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
80.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 10 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
83.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 4 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
85.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 3 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
86.0%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Dalton Brooks return for no gain to the TA&M 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0119% → 30%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
81.5%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Max Wright for 8 yds to the TA&M 48Similar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
50
+40
81.7%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Max Wright for 40 yds to the OKST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 0
OPP 5
+3
83.6%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Trey Rucker) to the OKST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0877% → 91%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
76.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 15 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
77.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
50
+32
78.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 32 yds to the TA&M 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
91.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 18 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5711% → 25%
OKSTDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0782% → 82%
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
82.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 11 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-15
82.7%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Personal Foul (Ollie Gordon II) to the OKST 34Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
81.7%
Wes Pahl punt for 42 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for no gain to the TA&M 24 Moose Muhammad III fumbled, recovered by TA&MSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17FUMBLE8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3418% → 21%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+15
82.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Micah Tease for 15 yds to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+17
82.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 17 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+34
79.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Amari Daniels for 34 yds Amari Daniels fumbled, forced by Xavier Benson, recovered by OKST Nickolas MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18INT7 plays · 41 yds · 2:4286% → 87%
Q4 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+33
85.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 33 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
87.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 1
50
-10
87.8%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dalton Cooper) to the OKST 40Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
87.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 2 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
87.4%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Sam Mathews return for no gain to the TA&M 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2114% → 10%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
85.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Micah Tease for 4 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-10
87.3%
Marcel Reed sacked by Collin Clay for a loss of 10 yards to the TA&M 22Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 16
OWN 22
0
90.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1691% → 90%
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
91.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 3 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 7
OPP 45
-5
90.0%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 12
50
+15
89.6%
Hudson Kaak punt for 45 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 15 yds to the TA&M 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21FG7 plays · 47 yds · 2:4310% → 11%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
90.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Rueben Owens for 8 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+9
88.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 9 yds to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
90.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 34 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-5
90.2%
Marcel Reed sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 5 yards to the OKST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22MISSED FG17 plays · 45 yds · 4:3893% → 99%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 3 yds to the OKST 28Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
93.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+10
95.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Cale Cabbiness for 10 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
94.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the TA&M 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:08
Marcel Reed run for 20 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 9:44
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 7:17
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 18 yds for a TD (Logan Ward KICK)
+11.8