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TXST

Texas State 45 at Rice 21

RICE
2023 · SERVPRO First Responder Bowl · Dec 26, 2023 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:46 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 54 yds, downed at the RICE 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense−3.1Score differential−1.2Pregame prior−6.3Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:36: AJ Padgett pass intercepted Brian Holloway return for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +6.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:07: Dean Connors run for 3 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +10.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:40: Dean Connors run for 28 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +14.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:57: Nash Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +11.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:16: AJ Padgett pass intercepted Brian Holloway return for 48 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +11.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:32RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:59RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:54TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:04TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00TXST 4th & 14 at RICE 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−8.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:54TXST 4th & 2 at RICE 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−1.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:02RICE 4th & 15 at RICE 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:00TXST 4th & 13 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:21TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:31TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:34TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:21TXST 4th & 10 at RICE 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:15RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 3, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:25TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:54RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:22TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:36TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:07RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:40RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:57TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:16TXST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:01TXST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2758% → 59%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
41.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 26 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
41.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the RICE 47Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
41.7%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+9
41.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
41.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
41.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+29
41.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 29 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4642% → 41%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
41.6%
AJ Padgett sacked by Terry Webb and Jordan Revels for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 35Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
41.5%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+9
41.4%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 9 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 5
OWN 44
-5
41.4%
Rice Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
41.2%
Conor Hunt punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5159% → 59%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
41.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 5 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+1
41.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 20Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
41.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Konner FoxSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+23
41.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 42 Texas State Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the TXST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:3242% → 45%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
41.8%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the TXST 42Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+12
41.9%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 12 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
42.2%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
42.1%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-GoelzSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+13
41.8%
Luke McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the TXST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
42.4%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the TXST 17 Texas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (8 Yards) to the TXST 9Similar
Q1 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
42.4%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the TXST 7Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.1%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:2256% → 61%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
43.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+12
43.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
43.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+21
43.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 21 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
42.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 32 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
42.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the RICE 2Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the RICE 1Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1141% → 39%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
40.9%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 11 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.2%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Kobie Campbell for no gain to the TXST 49Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
40.9%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Juma OtovianoSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-8
40.1%
AJ Padgett sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 8 yards to the RICE 43Similar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 18
OWN 43
0
38.9%
Conor Hunt punt for 37 yds, downed at the TXST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0760% → 59%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
39.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 19Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
39.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+3
40.2%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
40.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 54 yds, downed at the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-36
33.8%
AJ Padgett pass intercepted Brian Holloway return for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4934% → 34%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
34.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
33.8%
Texas State Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (5 Yards) to the RICE 43Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
34.0%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 44Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
33.6%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
33.5%
Conor Hunt punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4169% → 69%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
31.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 37Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
31.5%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
31.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
31.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, downed at the RICE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:4431% → 37%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.2%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
31.0%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the RICE 23Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+15
30.5%
Texas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.6%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+34
30.8%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 19 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
31.7%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-10
31.5%
Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TXST 40Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 22
OPP 40
+2
30.3%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 2 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 20
OPP 38
+15
29.7%
AJ Padgett pass incomplete for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
31.0%
Juma Otoviano run for 6 yds to the TXST 17Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
30.6%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the TXST 17Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+14
29.8%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 14 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
40.5%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
37.0%
Rice Penalty, Illegal Kicking (-5 Yards) to the RICE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5163% → 62%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
36.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-1
36.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 21Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
37.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
38.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:2038% → 53%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
38.2%
Luke McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+27
38.3%
Dean Connors run for 27 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
53.2%
Dean Connors run for 28 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FUMBLE
20 plays · 61 yds · 3:3254% → 58%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
46.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
46.4%
Rice Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
44.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
43.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the RICE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
43.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 14 yds to the RICE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
41.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
41.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 19 yds to the RICE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
41.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the RICE 6Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
41.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the RICE 5Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
42.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
40.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 5Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
41.4%
TJ Finley sacked by De'Braylon Carroll for a loss of 9 yards to the RICE 14Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
44.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
41.8%
Mason Shipley 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:5361% → 72%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
38.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the RICE 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
38.9%
TJ Finley run for no gain to the RICE 29Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+7
40.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the RICE 22Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+7
42.3%
TJ Finley run for 7 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
39.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
39.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the RICE 7Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+3
40.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the RICE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
39.0%
TJ Finley run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 6Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
39.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the RICE 3Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.7%
Nash Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3631% → 18%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
30.8%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 42Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
30.4%
AJ Padgett run for 3 yds to the RICE 45Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-48
18.4%
AJ Padgett pass intercepted Brian Holloway return for 48 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0317% → 15%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
17.0%
Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the RICE 12Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
16.4%
Chase Jenkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 13Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 9
OWN 13
-5
16.0%
Rice Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RICE 8Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 14
OWN 8
-1
15.2%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 7Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 15
OWN 7
0
15.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the RICE 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5488% → 89%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
11.9%
TJ Finley run for 1 yd to the RICE 46Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-11
11.6%
TJ Finley sacked by Tyson Flowers for a loss of 11 yards to the TXST 43Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+7
11.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 13
50
0
11.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 4:0114% → 11%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
14.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 13Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+1
13.8%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 14Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+8
13.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Dean Connors for 8 yds to the RICE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
13.5%
Juma Otoviano run for 6 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
13.7%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the RICE 29Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-4
11.9%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Dominique Ratcliff and Jordan Revels for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 25Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
11.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2993% → 94%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
6.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+6
6.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
6.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
6.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds for a 1ST down , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:049% → 9%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
8.9%
Texas State Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
9.0%
AJ Padgett pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 10 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
8.7%
AJ Padgett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-20
8.6%
AJ Padgett pass intercepted Shawn Holton return for 5 yds to the TXST 29 Texas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TXST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3495% → 95%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
5.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 17Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-5
5.1%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 12Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+1
5.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 13Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
4.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
4.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:186% → 7%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
50
+13
6.4%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 13 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
6.8%
Shawqi Itraish pass intercepted Kaleb Ford-Dement return for no gain to the TXST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1596% → 96%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
4.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
4.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-2
4.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 25Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
3.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds , Moh Bility returns for no gain to the RICE 39 Moh Bility fumbled, recovered by TXST John OehrleinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0797% → 97%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
3.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
3.2%
Texas State Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the RICE 41Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
2.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+2
2.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 2 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
2.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, downed at the RICE 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:013% → 3%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
3.0%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 5Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-2
2.7%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 3Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
2.6%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 3Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
2.5%
Conor Hunt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the RICE 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:0598% → 100%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
1.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 33 yds to the RICE 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
1.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (1 Yards) to the RICE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:321% → 1%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.7%
Shawqi Itraish run for 4 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+6
0.7%
Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Boden Groen for 6 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-47
0.7%
Shawqi Itraish pass intercepted Bobby Crosby return for 32 yds to the TXST 30 Texas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the RICE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:40
Dean Connors run for 28 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q3 8:16
AJ Padgett pass intercepted Brian Holloway return for 48 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q3 9:57
Nash Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com