Try the model
UTAH

Utah 7 at Northwestern 14

NU
2023 · SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · Dec 23, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:25 · Jack Olsen 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior−17.2Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:20: Cam Johnson 12 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick) — NU win probability +12.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:38: Micah Bernard 6 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — UTAH win probability +27.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:04: Ben Bryant pass incomplete — NU win probability +14.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:19: Bryce Kirtz 19 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick) — NU win probability +30.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:50: Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 42 — NU win probability +8.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10UTAH made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30NU 4th & 21 at NU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39UTAH 4th & 25 at UTAH 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:25NU 4th & 12 at UTAH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:29UTAH 4th & 16 at UTAH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:41NU 4th & 5 at UTAH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    38.9%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:21NU 4th & 1 at NU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:13NU 4th & 1 at UTAH 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:27UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:16NU 4th & 1 at UTAH 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−2.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:42UTAH 4th & 10 at UTAH 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:51UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:29UTAH 4th & 15 at UTAH 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:44NU 4th & 8 at NU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:05NU 4th & 8 at UTAH 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.3
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:07UTAH 4th & 11 at UTAH 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:37NU 4th & 11 at NU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−3.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:56NU 4th & 7 at UTAH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−3.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:10UTAH 4th & 2 at NU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.0%−4.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:55UTAH 4th & 3 at NU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−4.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 1:20NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:38UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:19NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0032% → 32%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 1 yd to the NU 26Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
31.7%
Ben Bryant sacked by Zemaiah Vaughn and Levani Damuni for a loss of 8 yards to the NU 18Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-4
31.8%
Ben Bryant sacked by Johnathan Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 14Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
31.9%
Hunter Renner punt for 50 yds , Money Parks returns for no gain to the UTAH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:2168% → 67%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
32.2%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Richie Hagarty for a loss of 7 yards to the UTAH 29Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
32.4%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-8
32.6%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Anto Saka for a loss of 8 yards to the UTAH 21Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
33.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTAH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0533% → 34%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
33.3%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the UTAH 42Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
33.5%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the UTAH 39Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+8
33.9%
Cam Porter run for 8 yds to the UTAH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
34.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-2
34.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon II for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 33Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
34.0%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+51
33.8%
Jack Olsen 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4166% → 65%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
33.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 37Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
33.7%
Landen King run for no gain to the UTAH 37Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-10
34.3%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Kenny Soares Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the UTAH 27Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
34.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 43 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:3435% → 36%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
34.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the NU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
35.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+11
35.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 11 yds to the UTAH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
36.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for no gain to the UTAH 44Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
36.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 5 yds to the UTAH 39Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
36.6%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
36.1%
Hunter Renner punt for 37 yds, downed at the UTAH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6INT
8 plays · 55 yds · 4:0964% → 64%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+25
35.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 25 yds to the UTAH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
35.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the UTAH 36Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
35.5%
Micah Bernard run for 4 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
35.7%
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the UTAH 44Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
35.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Micah Bernard for 5 yds to the UTAH 49Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
35.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
35.5%
Jaylon Glover run for 3 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
35.6%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted, touchback. Jaheem Joseph return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0238% → 39%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
37.9%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-5
37.9%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 14Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+5
38.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 5 yds to the NU 19Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+12
37.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 12 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
38.8%
Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the NU 32Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
39.0%
Ben Bryant run for 3 yds to the NU 35Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
38.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 5 yds to the NU 40Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
39.3%
Hunter Renner punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Money Parks at the UTAH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0162% → 61%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
38.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the UTAH 24Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-5
38.1%
Barnes, Bryson pass incomplete, PENALTY UTAH ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UTAH19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
38.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTAH 22Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-45
39.3%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Jaheem Joseph return for 45 yds to the UTAH 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3243% → 42%
Q2 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
42.6%
Jack Lausch run for 1 yd to the UTAH 6Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
43.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the UTAH 1Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the UTAH 1Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2360% → 59%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
39.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTAH 2Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
40.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 6Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
40.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the UTAH 6Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+8
40.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 53 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 8 yds to the NU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5944% → 43%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
43.8%
Joseph Himon II run for 9 yds to the UTAH 42Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
44.4%
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the UTAH 42Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
44.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
43.0%
Hunter Renner punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Money Parks at the UTAH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2361% → 58%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
39.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the UTAH 16Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+16
39.7%
Jaylon Glover run for 1 yd to the UTAH 17 for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the UTAH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
39.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 4 yds to the UTAH 36Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-4
38.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dijon Stanley for a loss of 4 yards to the UTAH 32Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
40.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
41.8%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 46 yds, downed at the NU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:5544% → 59%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
43.6%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
44.9%
Cam Porter run for 8 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
44.7%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST down Utah Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
46.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the UTAH 44Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
47.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the UTAH 42Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
46.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 5 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
47.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 25 yds to the UTAH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
59.2%
Cam Johnson 12 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2245% → 45%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.2%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the UTAH 28Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
54.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Micah Bernard for 5 yds to the UTAH 33Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
54.2%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the UTAH 33Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+16
54.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 55 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 16 yds to the NU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:3558% → 60%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
58.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 6 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
58.7%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+16
56.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
50
0
59.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
50
+17
59.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 17 yds to the UTAH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
60.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
60.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 11 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+40
60.3%
Jack Olsen 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:1644% → 39%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
55.9%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the UTAH 37Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
56.0%
Jaylon Glover run for 3 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
56.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 6 yds to the UTAH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
55.5%
Money Parks run for 5 yds to the NU 49Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
55.4%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the NU 49Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-10
56.2%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Carmine Bastone for a loss of 10 yards to the UTAH 41Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
61.2%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 27 yds, downed at the NU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3161% → 59%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
61.2%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
61.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
60.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
59.1%
Hunter Renner punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Money Parks at the UTAH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
59.3%
Jaylon Glover run for 6 yds to the UTAH 38 Jaylon Glover fumbled, recovered by NU Rod Heard IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5565% → 65%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
65.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 6 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-5
67.3%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 37Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
66.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+1
66.0%
Caleb Komolafe run for 1 yd to the UTAH 36Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
64.6%
Hunter Renner punt for 30 yds, downed at the UTAH 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 5:4838% → 31%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
62.2%
Jaylon Glover run for 5 yds to the UTAH 11Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
62.5%
Micah Bernard run for 4 yds to the UTAH 15Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+3
63.8%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
63.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTAH 22Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
63.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
64.0%
Jaylon Glover run for 3 yds to the UTAH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
65.0%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
65.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 5 yds to the UTAH 37Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-8
65.3%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 8 yards to the UTAH 29Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
69.5%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2071% → 71%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
71.2%
A.J. Henning run for 1 yd to the NU 27Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+6
71.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 6 yds to the NU 33Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-5
72.5%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 28Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-3
72.2%
Ben Bryant sacked by Van Fillinger and Junior Tafuna for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 25Similar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+3
70.6%
Hunter Renner punt for 38 yds , Money Parks returns for 3 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:4032% → 61%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
67.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
66.2%
Jaylon Glover run for 3 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
66.7%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the NU 47Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+18
68.0%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Jaylon Glover for 18 yds to the NU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
67.8%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the NU 27Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+18
66.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Munir McClain for 18 yds to the NU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
67.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the NU 6Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
39.1%
Micah Bernard 6 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:1952% → 54%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
51.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 11 yds to the NU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
52.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 3 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
54.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
51.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 9 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
56.5%
Ben Bryant run for 9 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+10
58.1%
Hilinski, Ryan pass incomplete, PENALTY UTAH holding 10 yards to the UTAH36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
58.3%
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the UTAH 36Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
58.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 3 yds Thomas Gordon fumbled, recovered by NUSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
58.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
54.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:3454% → 55%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
46.4%
Jaylon Glover run for 12 yds to the UTAH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
43.7%
Jaylon Glover run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 44Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+2
45.5%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+7
46.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
44.8%
Jaylon Glover run for no gain to the NU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:4559% → 89%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
59.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+34
58.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 34 yds to the UTAH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
88.9%
Bryce Kirtz 19 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:1517% → 13%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.1%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
82.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Micah Bernard for 14 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
81.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
80.8%
Micah Bernard run for 9 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
81.8%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-3
81.8%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Sean McLaughlin for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 46Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+8
83.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Luca Caldarella for 8 yds to the NU 38Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
86.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:4095% → 97%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
95.0%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 42Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-1
95.7%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 41Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+10
95.5%
Ben Bryant run for 10 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 48Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-3
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 45Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 16
OWN 45
-3
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:19
Bryce Kirtz 19 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick)
+30.7
TD · Q4 12:38
Micah Bernard 6 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
-27.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:04
Ben Bryant pass incomplete
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com