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JMU

James Madison 21 at Air Force 31

AF
2023 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Dec 23, 2023 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1AF 96.6%Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 31 · Q4 8:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:20 · Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense+26.3Pregame prior+1.8Garbage-time factor+12.5Score differential+14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:51: Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +7.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +8.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:11: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +11.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:07: Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +9.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:10: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 7 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +4.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:41JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:10AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:03AF 4th & 12 at AF 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:06JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:12AF 4th & 9 at AF 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:45JMU 4th & 12 at JMU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:38JMU 4th & 14 at JMU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:07AF 4th & 1 at JMU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.0%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:05JMU 4th & 14 at JMU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:00AF 4th & 1 at JMU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.1%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:20AF 4th & 5 at JMU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:40JMU 4th & 14 at AF 48, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:11AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:00JMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:51AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:11JMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:07AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:10JMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4937% → 37%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 10 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
63.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
63.2%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMU 44Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
63.1%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 44Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
63.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 4:1463% → 66%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+54
63.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 54 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
63.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the JMU 26Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
63.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the JMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
63.8%
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the JMU 13Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+5
63.9%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the JMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
64.0%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the JMU 2Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the JMU 1Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0035% → 39%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.5%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 24Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
65.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 10 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
65.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
65.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 27 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
64.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
64.8%
Kaelon Black run for 14 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
61.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 18 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:4763% → 62%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.7%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
62.7%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
62.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
62.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
63.1%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
63.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
62.0%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
61.7%
Luke Freer punt for 45 yds, downed at the JMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5INT
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:5338% → 40%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
61.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 12 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
61.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 9 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
60.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 4 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
60.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
59.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 16 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
59.2%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+5
59.4%
Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-2
59.1%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
60.1%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Johnathan Youngblood return for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:5963% → 72%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
62.6%
Aiden Calvert run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
63.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
63.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+51
63.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 51 yds to the JMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
65.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the JMU 1Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:3430% → 29%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
69.6%
Latrele Palmer run for 6 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-9
69.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 9 yards to the JMU 20 James Madison Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+17
70.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 17 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
69.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
70.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
71.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4871% → 70%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
70.8%
Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
70.3%
Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
69.7%
Luke Freer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2030% → 28%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
70.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 6 yds to the JMU 36Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
69.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-8
70.3%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 8 yards to the JMU 28 Jordan McCloud fumbled, forced by Bo Richter, recovered by JMU Jordan McCloud , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3372% → 72%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
71.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
72.1%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Luke Freer punt for 53 yds, downed at the JMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5226% → 25%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
73.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 15Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
74.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 11
OWN 15
-3
74.9%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 3 yards to the JMU 12Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
75.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds, downed at the JMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:0675% → 84%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
75.2%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the JMU 42Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
84.0%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
82.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:4883% → 84%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
83.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
83.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
84.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
84.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
84.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
84.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the JMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4818% → 30%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
82.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
81.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 27 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
81.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5876% → 90%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.9%
Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+17
75.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 17 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
78.6%
Aiden Calvert run for 10 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
79.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
79.5%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 6 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
79.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
80.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the JMU 32Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+31
80.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 31 yds to the JMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5012% → 11%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-4
88.2%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Payton Zdroik for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 20Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
88.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
88.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 9:4091% → 97%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
92.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
92.7%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
92.3%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.3%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
93.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the JMU 42Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
93.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
93.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+1
93.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
94.0%
Dane Kinamon run for 5 yds to the JMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
94.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the JMU 23Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
94.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the JMU 21Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+7
94.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the JMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
95.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the JMU 13Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
95.6%
Dane Kinamon run for 5 yds to the JMU 8Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-1
95.6%
Zac Larrier run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 9Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
96.6%
Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:554% → 7%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
96.3%
Kaelon Black run for 15 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
96.3%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 44Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+12
96.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 12 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
96.6%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-14
96.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 14 yards to the JMU 46Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+11
97.7%
Kaelon Black run for 11 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 9
OPP 43
-5
97.6%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 14
OPP 48
+24
97.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 24 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
97.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+17
97.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 7 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20END OF GAME
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:2495% → 97%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
94.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the JMU 49Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+13
95.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 13 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 38Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+8
96.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
96.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the JMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:11
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q3 4:07
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q2 0:27
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com