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TROY

Troy 10 at Duke 17

DUKE
2023 · 76 Birmingham Bowl · Dec 23, 2023 · Protective Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:05 · Porter Wilson punt for 50 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+17.9Pregame prior−4.0Garbage-time factor+5.8Score differential+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:29: Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (N. Dalmolin Run For Two-point Conversion) — DUKE win probability +5.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Todd Pelino 37 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +6.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:29: Todd Pelino 45 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +5.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:54: Derrick Graham run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +12.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:45: Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 24 — DUKE win probability +6.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:37TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59TROY 4th & 24 at DUKE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:03DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:02TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:43TROY 4th & 7 at midfield, down 8
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:14DUKE 4th & 1 at TROY 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.7%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:14TROY 4th & 3 at DUKE 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:51DUKE 4th & 9 at TROY 17, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:24TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:05DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:55TROY 4th & 10 at DUKE 43, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−1.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    23.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:05DUKE 4th & 3 at midfield, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:36TROY 4th & 10 at DUKE 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:29DUKE 4th & 2 at TROY 28, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%−1.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−6.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:32TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.5%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:46DUKE 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 0 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 2:29DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:54TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0861% → 60%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
39.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
39.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
39.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
39.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 30Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+3
39.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
40.1%
Robert Cole punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:2640% → 40%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
40.0%
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Bolyard, Vance, PENALTY TROY pass interference 8 yards to the DUKE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
40.2%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 39Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-2
40.3%
Grayson Loftis sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 37 Grayson Loftis fumbled, forced by T.J. Jackson, recovered by TROY Dell Pettus , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3MISSED FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5660% → 59%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
39.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 21 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
39.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-10
39.8%
Vidal, Kimani rush for 16 yards to the DUKE0, PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the DUKE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+3
40.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 17
OPP 23
-7
40.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Aeneas Peebles for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 30Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 24
OPP 30
+47
41.0%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4741% → 41%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
41.0%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-5
41.1%
Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
41.1%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
40.9%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+61
40.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the TROY 21 Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TROY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:5359% → 57%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
41.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+14
41.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 14 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
41.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
41.4%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-8
41.9%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
42.6%
Robert Cole punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:1642% → 50%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
42.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
42.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 9 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
43.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 8 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+18
43.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 18 yds to the TROY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
44.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+26
44.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 26 yds to the TROY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (N. Dalmolin Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:3151% → 50%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
49.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 37 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down Troy Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
49.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 7
50
0
49.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 7
50
0
50.2%
Robert Cole punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1650% → 51%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
49.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 24 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
51.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
51.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the TROY 47Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
51.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
50.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the TROY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4150% → 48%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
50.1%
Chris Lewis pass complete to Asa Martin for 11 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
50.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
50.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
50.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+2
52.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 2 yds to the DUKE 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:1452% → 60%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
52.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Waters for 1 yd to the DUKE 34 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the DUKE 24Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 19
OWN 24
+6
52.1%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
52.4%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan WatersSimilar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+15
51.6%
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY TROY pass interference 15 yards to the DUKE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
54.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
55.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for no gain to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+12
54.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 12 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
56.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 23 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
56.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the TROY 17Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+2
58.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the TROY 15Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-2
58.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 17Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
59.9%
Todd Pelino 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2441% → 39%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
60.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
61.1%
Robert Cole punt for 48 yds, downed at the DUKE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12END OF HALF
21 plays · 54 yds · 6:1860% → 77%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.4%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
60.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+6
60.5%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
62.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 6 yds to the DUKE 43Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
63.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
64.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
65.3%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jaquez MooreSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+7
64.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 7 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.7%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
65.8%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
66.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
68.4%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the TROY 25Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+8
69.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Waters for 8 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
70.5%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-10
70.9%
Waters, Jordan rush for 5 yards to the TROY9, PENALTY DUKE holding 10 yards to the TROY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+5
70.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+37
77.2%
Todd Pelino 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4075% → 75%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
74.8%
Jordan Waters run for 22 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
76.0%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 42Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+7
76.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 7 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
76.5%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
75.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:5724% → 22%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
76.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 10Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+4
76.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
76.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+3
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
77.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 15 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
76.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 13 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
76.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
76.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Asa MartinSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
77.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Devonte RossSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
78.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4482% → 83%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
82.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
82.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-1
82.4%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 3
50
0
83.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:1220% → 18%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
80.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+14
79.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 14 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 41Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+16
80.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 16 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
80.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
82.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 13 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
83.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 31Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+4
86.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
82.5%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:5384% → 93%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
84.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 28 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
86.0%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 2 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
87.0%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-1
87.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 28Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
92.8%
Todd Pelino 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:469% → 7%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
91.0%
Asa Martin run for 15 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
90.8%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 38 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by TROY Clayton OllendieckSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+1
92.0%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+8
92.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
93.0%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the TROY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:1695% → 96%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
94.9%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+2
95.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.6%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Damaje Yancey return for no gain to the TROY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 3:066% → 15%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
94.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+10
94.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the TROY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
94.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
94.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+12
94.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
94.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+38
94.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 30 yds to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Roughing Passer (8 Yards) to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
94.4%
Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the DUKE 2Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.5%
Jabre Barber pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.3%
Derrick Graham run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
85.4%
Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 3:5989% → 95%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
89.4%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+8
89.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 8 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
91.8%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+21
92.0%
Jordan Waters run for 21 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.1%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
94.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+2
95.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 45
-5
94.9%
Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 11
50
0
94.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TROY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:188% → 8%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
92.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 15 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.0%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Jeremiah Lewis return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4097% → 97%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
50
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 49Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:54
Derrick Graham run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-12.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Todd Pelino 37 yd FG GOOD
+6.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:45
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 24
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com