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UTSA

UTSA 35 at Marshall 17

MRSH
2023 · Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl · Dec 19, 2023 · Toyota Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:19 · Owen McCown pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 2 yds to the MRSH 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Pregame prior−0.6Home team on offense−50.2Score differential−25.8Garbage-time factor−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−12.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:48: Rasheen Ali run for 64 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:53: Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 44 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:47: Robert Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +11.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:49: Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador for 19 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +10.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:39: Rocko Griffin run for 17 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK) — UTSA win probability +8.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 10 of 12UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:01UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:19MRSH 4th & 7 at UTSA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:35UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:38MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:00UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:11MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:12MRSH 4th & 11 at UTSA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:17MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:26MRSH 4th & 12 at UTSA 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:48MRSH 4th & 4 at UTSA 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−2.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:09MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:11UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:10MRSH 4th & 12 at UTSA 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−5.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:19UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 29, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:46MRSH 4th & 14 at UTSA 37, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:05MRSH 4th & 24 at MRSH 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:19UTSA 4th & 3 at MRSH 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:52MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:48MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:26UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:53UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:47UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:49UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:39UTSA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5477% → 77%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.9%
Owen McCown run for no gain to the UTSA 25Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.1%
Owen McCown run for 7 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
23.2%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
23.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:3423% → 25%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
23.4%
Cole Pennington run for 1 yd to the MRSH 31Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-4
23.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for a loss of 4 yards to the MRSH 27Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+21
23.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 21 yds to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
24.7%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the MRSH 48Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
25.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
25.4%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
25.2%
John McConnell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:5375% → 74%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
25.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the UTSA 8Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-3
25.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTSA 5Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 13
OWN 5
-2
26.0%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Eli Neal return for 2 yds to the UTSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1827% → 28%
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
26.5%
Ethan Payne run for 6 yds to the UTSA 1Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.3%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1072% → 71%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.8%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
28.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 1 yd to the UTSA 30Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
28.7%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
29.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 50 yds, downed at the MRSH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4629% → 30%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
29.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
29.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-9
29.9%
Cole Pennington sacked by Martavius French and Jimmori Robinson for a loss of 9 yards to the MRSH 17Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+48
30.0%
Alec Clark punt for 48 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:3670% → 69%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
30.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 5 yds to the UTSA 39Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
30.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
30.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.3%
Owen McCown pass intercepted Micah Abraham return for no gain to the MRSH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5533% → 33%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
32.5%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
32.7%
Ethan Payne run for 6 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
32.9%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Chuck MontgomerySimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
32.5%
Alec Clark punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4067% → 65%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
32.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
32.8%
Barnes, Kevorian rush for 2 yards to the UTSA35, PENALTY UTSA holding off-setting, PENALTY MARSHALL Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-6
33.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 6 yards to the UTSA 27Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+1
34.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTSA 28Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
35.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 45 yds, downed at the MRSH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:0335% → 42%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
34.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 14 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
36.2%
Pennington, Cole pass incomplete to Keaton, Talik, PENALTY MARSHALL holding 10 yards to the MARSHALL31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+5
35.2%
Ethan Payne run for 5 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+64
41.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 64 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:0961% → 65%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.5%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
40.0%
Owen McCown run for 1 yd to the UTSA 42Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+18
41.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 18 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
40.6%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
41.1%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-10
41.1%
Henry, Robert rush for 12 yards to the MARSHALL22, PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the MARSHALL44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+41
43.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 41 yds to the MRSH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.1%
Robert Henry run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0539% → 39%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
39.0%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
39.6%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+3
39.1%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Talik Keaton for 3 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
38.9%
Alec Clark punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1561% → 69%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+26
39.5%
Owen McCown run for 26 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
38.2%
Owen McCown sacked by Stephen Dix Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 44Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+44
31.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 44 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:3334% → 39%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+46
34.8%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 46 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.9%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the UTSA 25Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
38.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the UTSA 24Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-2
38.2%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 26Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
38.6%
Rece Verhoff 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:1861% → 75%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Willie McCoy for 5 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
38.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
38.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
37.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the UTSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
37.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
50
+7
37.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 7 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
37.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 4 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
37.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Chris Carpenter for 9 yds to the MRSH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
36.0%
Owen McCown run for 9 yds to the MRSH 21Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
35.7%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
36.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 6 yds to the MRSH 13Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+12
35.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 12 yds to the MRSH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.8%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:2527% → 28%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.4%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 24Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
28.5%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRSH 19Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
28.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Talik Keaton for 7 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
27.8%
Cole Pennington sacked by Kam Alexander for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 24Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
27.7%
Alec Clark punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:1072% → 71%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
28.1%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
28.6%
Owen McCown run for 5 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+13
28.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 13 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2832% → 32%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
32.1%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 27 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.8%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
35.6%
Pennington, Cole pass incomplete to Keaton, Talik, PENALTY UTSA roughing passer 15 yards to the UTSA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
37.6%
Talik Keaton run for 3 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
37.9%
Ethan Payne run for 2 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
36.2%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the UTSA 25Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-5
34.7%
Marshall Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 30Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 7
OPP 30
-5
34.4%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 35Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+53
32.4%
Rece Verhoff 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4369% → 70%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
31.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 8 yds to the UTSA 43Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
30.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the UTSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
30.1%
Owen McCown sacked by Elijah Alston for a loss of 5 yards to the UTSA 43 Owen McCown fumbled, forced by Elijah Alston, recovered by MRSH Eli Neal , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3237% → 36%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
37.3%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
37.1%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the UTSA 42Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+5
36.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Ethan Payne for 5 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
35.9%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Chuck MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4668% → 83%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
31.9%
Robert Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 35Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+1
33.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 1 yd to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+27
32.7%
Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 27 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
29.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
27.8%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
29.2%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the MRSH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
27.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 7 yds to the MRSH 18Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
27.9%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
29.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the MRSH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
27.6%
McCown, Owen pass complete to Ogle-Kellogg, Tykee for 14 yards to the MARSHALL0, PENALTY UTSA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MARSHALL19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+19
16.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador for 19 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2118% → 17%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
18.4%
Cole Pennington run for 5 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
18.8%
Cole Pennington run for 4 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-5
18.5%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRSH 27Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
17.7%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+44
16.7%
Alec Clark punt for 44 yds , Chris Carpenter returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4981% → 81%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
18.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the UTSA 29Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-4
18.6%
Rocko Griffin run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTSA 25Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+6
19.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the UTSA 31Similar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
19.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRSH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:5618% → 16%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
17.5%
Pennington, Cole pass incomplete to Montgomery, Chuck, PENALTY UTSA roughing passer 15 yards to the MARSHALL33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
17.9%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the MRSH 33Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+52
17.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 52 yds to the UTSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
21.7%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the UTSA 12Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
20.8%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-5
19.3%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTSA 17Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
18.2%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
16.1%
Rece Verhoff 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4183% → 84%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
16.6%
Robert Henry run for 1 yd to the UTSA 21Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
16.6%
Robert Henry run for 2 yds to the UTSA 23Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
15.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry for 6 yds to the UTSA 29Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
16.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26INT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:2916% → 12%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
15.6%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-8
15.0%
Cole Pennington sacked by Trumane Bell II for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 22Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+28
13.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
50
0
17.2%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
50
0
16.7%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 10
50
+17
15.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 17 yds to the UTSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
16.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 5 yds to the UTSA 28Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
17.0%
Ethan Payne run for no gain to the UTSA 28Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-9
15.6%
Cole Pennington sacked by Avery Morris for a loss of 9 yards to the UTSA 37 Cole Pennington fumbled, forced by Avery Morris, recovered by MRSH Dalton Tucker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 14
OPP 37
-57
11.7%
Colin Parachek pass intercepted Kam Alexander return for 57 yds to the MRSH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
2.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 17 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28PUNT
11 plays · 7 yds · 2:284% → 3%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Chuck MontgomerySimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.8%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 6 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
3.9%
Pennington, Cole pass incomplete to Keaton, Talik, PENALTY UTSA pass interference 15 yards to the MARSHALL46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
4.1%
Pennington, Cole pass complete to Harrison, Jayden for loss of 4 yards to the MARSHALL42, PENALTY MARSHALL holding 10 yards to the MARSHALL36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+6
3.8%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 14
OWN 42
-10
3.6%
Cole Pennington sacked by Nick Booker-Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the MRSH 32Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 24
OWN 32
0
3.0%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 24
OWN 32
0
2.9%
Alec Clark punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chris Carpenter at the UTSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:3998% → 99%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
2.0%
Robert Henry run for 7 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
1.7%
Robert Henry run for 4 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
1.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+13
1.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jace Wilson for 13 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
1.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
1.2%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the MRSH 47Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+3
0.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 3 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+2
0.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 2 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
1.6%
Cole Pennington sacked by Brandon Matterson for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 40Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+11
1.6%
Ethan Payne run for 11 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+8
1.8%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Luke Soto for 8 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
1.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds to the UTSA 35Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
2.1%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Antwaan MaysSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+30
1.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 30 yds to the UTSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:47
Robert Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
-11
TD · Q3 4:49
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador for 19 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q4 8:39
Rocko Griffin run for 17 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com