2023 · Myrtle Beach Bowl · Dec 16, 2023 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:29 · Davis Brin pass incomplete to Caimon Mathis
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:22: Rickey Hunt run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +6.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:16: Parker Navarro pass complete to Rickey Hunt for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +14.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Gianni Spetic 26 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +9.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:46: Rickey Hunt run for 6 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:27: Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +12.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 6:27OHIO 4th & 9 at GASO 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snapGo for it51.7%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call51.9%89% to makePunt50.5%−1.4average punt
- Q1 4:35GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snapGo for it45.5%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%average punt
- Q2 10:02OHIO 4th & 3 at GASO 14, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.2%51% to convertField goal61.7%−0.584% to makePunt54.9%−7.2average punt
- Q2 5:09GASO 4th & 25 at GASO 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it29.8%−2.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q3 12:31OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 23, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it92.4%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.5%average punt
- Q3 9:41GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 39, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 6:06OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 25, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q4 12:37GASO 4th & 7 at OHIO 32, down 20Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%−0.237% to convertField goal1.9%51% to makePunt1.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 9:29OHIO 4th & 8 at GASO 42, up 13Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.7%34% to convertField goal91.8%−0.930% to makePuntTheir call92.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:32GASO 4th & 2 at OHIO 45, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.1%57% to convertField goal5.9%−1.225% to makePunt5.8%−1.3average punt
- Q4 0:29GASO 4th & 3 at OHIO 15, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.651% to convertField goal1.2%83% to makePunt0.4%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 12:22OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.1%97% to makeGo for two62.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:16OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:46OHIO Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:54GASO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.7%97% to makeGo for two6.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:04OHIO Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:13GASO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%97% to makeGo for two3.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:27GASO Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.0%97% to makeGo for two8.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:52OHIO Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1INT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:3144% → 44%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
55.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the GASO 24Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
55.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to OJ Arnold for 5 yds to the GASO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.8%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Jeremiah Wood return for no gain to the OHIO 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2FG12 plays · 43 yds · 6:2956% → 57%
GASODrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4143% → 42%
OHIODrive 4TD15 plays · 59 yds · 6:4558% → 65%
Q1 2:33
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+9
57.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Tyler Foster for 9 yds to the GASO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
58.8%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 4 yds to the GASO 45Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+11
59.2%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 11 yds to the GASO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+16
58.7%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 16 yds to the GASO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0635% → 35%
OHIODrive 6DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0766% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 4:1633% → 29%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to David Mbadinga for 3 yds to the GASO 28Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
68.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 11 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
67.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 38Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-8
68.9%
Davis Brin sacked by Vonnie Watkins for a loss of 8 yards to the GASO 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8TD4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3269% → 84%
Q2 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+39
69.4%
Parker Navarro run for 24 yds to the GASO 33 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the GASO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
83.6%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rickey Hunt for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9FUMBLE6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5820% → 20%
Q2 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-8
79.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to OJ Arnold for 2 yds to the GASO 34 Georgia Southern Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khaleb Hood) to the GASO 24Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
81.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 10 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
80.5%
Davis Brin sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 4 yards to the GASO 33 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by OHIO Shay Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10END OF HALF7 plays · 25 yds · 0:4586% → 92%
OHIODrive 11PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0292% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12INT2 plays · 6 yds · 0:269% → 9%
OHIODrive 13TD1 play · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD11 plays · 69 yds · 3:172% → 8%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-14
98.4%
Dalen Cobb run for 1 yd to the GASO 32 Georgia Southern Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the GASO 17Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 24
OWN 17
+2
98.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 2 yds to the GASO 19Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 22
OWN 19
+20
98.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 20 yds to the GASO 39Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+39
98.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 39 yds to the OHIO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3994% → 94%
Q3 6:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+25
94.3%
Jack Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GASO 35 Ohio Penalty, Kick Catch Interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16FUMBLE3 plays · 40 yds · 0:226% → 7%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
50
+17
94.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 2 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST down Ohio Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
93.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to David Mbadinga for 3 yds to the OHIO 30Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
93.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 20 yds Derwin Burgess Jr. fumbled, recovered by OHIO Roman Parodie , return for 30 yds to the OHIO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD8 plays · 60 yds · 3:1295% → 100%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
95.1%
Ohio Penalty, Offensive Holding (Parker Titsworth) to the OHIO 30Similar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 20
OWN 30
-7
94.9%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the OHIO 33 Ohio Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OHIO 23Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+5
94.8%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OHIO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD3 plays · 68 yds · 0:350% → 3%
GASODrive 19TD8 plays · 52 yds · 3:253% → 14%
Q3 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+12
97.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 12 yds to the OHIO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
97.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for no gain to the OHIO 32Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+17
98.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 17 yds to the OHIO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3193% → 94%
GASODrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 46 yds · 2:299% → 9%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
91.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 11 yds to the GASO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
91.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 12 yds to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
90.8%
Davis Brin sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the GASO 40Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+12
92.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 12 yds to the OHIO 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD10 plays · 55 yds · 3:0797% → 100%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
97.3%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Shemar Bartholomew) to the GASO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23DOWNS12 plays · 67 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
99.5%
Davis Brin sacked by Vonnie Watkins for a loss of 6 yards to the GASO 12Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+7
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to David Mbadinga for 7 yds to the GASO 19Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+22
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 22 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 8 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
99.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to David Mbadinga for 7 yds to the OHIO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:16
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rickey Hunt for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q4 12:27
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-12.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Gianni Spetic 26 yd FG GOOD
+9