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NMSU

New Mexico State 10 at Fresno State 37

FRES
2023 · Isleta New Mexico Bowl · Dec 16, 2023 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:44 · Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense+3.4Score differential+0.9Pregame prior−9.0Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:26: Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +4.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:02: Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +6.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:50: Dylan Lynch 25 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +3.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:23: Diego Pavia run for 14 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:20: Mikey Keene run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +11.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 9:54NMSU 4th & 17 at FRES 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:17FRES 4th & 4 at NMSU 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:44NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:12FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:13NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:47NMSU 4th & 5 at FRES 28, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:22NMSU 4th & 27 at NMSU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:27NMSU 4th & 10 at FRES 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:50FRES 4th & 7 at NMSU 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:33NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 24, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:08FRES 4th & 5 at NMSU 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:32NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 32, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:58NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:59FRES 4th & 13 at NMSU 33, up 27
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:26FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:02FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:23NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:20FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:40FRES Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:5162% → 60%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.4%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
38.6%
Diego Pavia run for 15 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
38.7%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
38.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+8
39.0%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
39.2%
Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
39.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris BellamySimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-6
39.4%
Diego Pavia sacked by Jacob Holmes for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 36Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 12
OPP 36
-5
40.3%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FRES 41Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 17
OPP 41
+33
40.3%
Zach Haynes punt for 34 yds , Erik Brooks returns for 33 yds to the FRES 8 Fresno State Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the FRES 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:0340% → 43%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
40.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
40.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+39
41.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 39 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
41.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the NMSU 16Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
41.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-1
41.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 14Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
42.6%
Dylan Lynch 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3INT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0857% → 57%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
42.6%
Diego Pavia sacked by Devo Bridges for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 18Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-5
43.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Cedric Claiborne) to the NMSU 13Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
43.3%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Dean Clark return for no gain to the NMSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:2144% → 49%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
44.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 5 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-5
44.5%
Fresno State Penalty, Illegal Touching (Jaelen Gill) to the NMSU 40Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
44.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 14 yds to the NMSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
48.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1753% → 50%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
47.4%
Makhilyn Young run for no gain to the NMSU 24Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
48.2%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-5
49.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (AJ Vaipulu) to the NMSU 22Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+4
49.7%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
50.4%
Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRES 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2450% → 50%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
49.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
50.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 6 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-1
50.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 34Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
50.0%
Carson King punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4249% → 46%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
51.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 3 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
51.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
52.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NMSU Diego PaviaSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
54.0%
Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds , Erik Brooks returns for no gain to the FRES 33 Erik Brooks fumbled, recovered by NMSU BJ ScularkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1850% → 49%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
50.3%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
50.2%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
51.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
50.9%
Ethan Albertson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:2053% → 64%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
52.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+8
53.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
53.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 7 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
55.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 37Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+13
55.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
50
+17
57.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 17 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
58.2%
Keene, Mikey pass incomplete to Dalena, Mac, PENALTY NEWMEXST holding (Seldon, Andre) 10 yards to the NEWMEXST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
64.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 1:3438% → 34%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
62.3%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shiyazh Pete) to the NMSU 15Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
62.9%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMSU 15Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-7
63.8%
Diego Pavia sacked by Levelle Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 8Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 27
OWN 8
0
65.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 27
OWN 8
+15
65.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 42 yds , Erik Brooks returns for 15 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2866% → 68%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
66.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 39Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+34
66.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 29 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (5 Yards) to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-5
67.8%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 10Similar
Q2 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
67.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 8Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
68.1%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted, touchback. Mehki Miller return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:5134% → 30%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
65.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the NMSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
65.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for no gain to the NMSU 31Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
67.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
67.3%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
65.8%
Bryce Childress run for 10 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.9%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
68.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
70.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
70.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris BellamySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:1874% → 74%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
73.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 36Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+19
73.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 19 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
75.0%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Jalen MossSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+35
74.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 35 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:5575% → 81%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for no gain to the FRES 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+26
74.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 26 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
76.8%
Mikey Keene run for 5 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+34
77.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 34 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
77.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the NMSU 7Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
78.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
78.0%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
81.3%
Dylan Lynch 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0719% → 29%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
81.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
81.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 1 yd to the NMSU 36Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
82.6%
Makhilyn Young run for 7 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
82.4%
Monte Watkins run for 2 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
83.0%
Makhilyn Young run for 2 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
83.5%
Makhilyn Young run for 2 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
85.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 8 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
86.0%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
85.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+16
86.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 16 yds to the FRES 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
86.0%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
70.6%
Diego Pavia run for 14 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:5477% → 95%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
77.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
77.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
79.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
78.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 12 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
80.7%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 48Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+20
81.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 20 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
82.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
82.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 9 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-8
83.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
83.1%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 20Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+16
83.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 16 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.0%
Mikey Keene run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:476% → 5%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
93.9%
Fresno State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NMSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
93.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 14Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+10
94.2%
Star Thomas run for 10 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
94.7%
Zach Haynes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:1595% → 99%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
95.4%
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FRES 26Similar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+12
95.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 12 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
95.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 10 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
96.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+18
96.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 18 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
96.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 3 yds to the NMSU 22Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
96.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
96.8%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
98.6%
Dylan Lynch 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:231% → 1%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Makhilyn Young run for 7 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
98.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
98.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Bryce ChildressSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
98.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
99.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+17
99.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 17 yds to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:310% → 0%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris BellamySimilar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Donovan FaupelSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Diego Pavia sacked by Phoenix Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.9%
Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 20
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 45Similar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 24
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 22
OPP 42
+9
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 13
OPP 33
-4
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+13
99.9%
Larenzo McMillan run for 13 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-3
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Larenzo McMillan for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:23
Diego Pavia run for 14 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q4 13:20
Mikey Keene run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 7:02
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com