Try the model
APP

App State 23 at Troy 49

TROY
2023 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2023 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:20 · Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Home team on offense+9.2Pregame prior+3.3Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:15: Kimani Vidal 36 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick) — TROY win probability +8.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:39: Kanye Roberts 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +9.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:11: Kanye Roberts 6 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +15.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:31: Chris Lewis 51 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick) — TROY win probability +15.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:57: Kimani Vidal 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick) — TROY win probability +14.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:03TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23APP 4th & 10 at TROY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:43TROY 4th & 2 at APP 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06APP 4th & 2 at APP 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:42TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:18APP 4th & 1 at TROY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:33APP 4th & 11 at APP 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59APP 4th & 1 at TROY 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:46APP 4th & 1 at APP 35, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:50APP 4th & 21 at TROY 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−3.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:49TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54APP 4th & 6 at APP 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:20TROY 4th & 1 at APP 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−7.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:30APP 4th & 3 at TROY 46, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:33TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:15TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:39APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:11APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:31TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:57TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:51TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:34APP Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:30TROY Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:42TROY Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 2:5166% → 66%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 25Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 3 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-10
66.3%
Vidal, Kimani rush for 15 yards to the APP STATE47, PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the TROY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
66.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-2
66.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
65.9%
Robert Cole punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:3134% → 34%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the APP 36Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
65.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+12
66.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 12 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
65.5%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 48Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
65.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 10 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
65.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-8
65.2%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Dell Pettus for a loss of 8 yards to the TROY 47 Appalachian State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Joey Aguilar) to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+5
65.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 5 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
65.6%
Mitchell Lake punt for 32 yds, downed at the TROY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:3066% → 65%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
65.6%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Lewis, Chris, PENALTY APP STATE holding (Funderburk, Tyrek) 10 yards to the TROY20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
65.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-9
65.8%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Santana Hopper for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 19Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+12
64.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the TROY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
65.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
65.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-2
65.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-2
65.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+10
64.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
65.6%
Damien Taylor run for 8 yds to the APP 48Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
65.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
65.3%
Robert Cole punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3135% → 35%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
64.8%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
64.3%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
64.7%
Mitchell Lake punt for 50 yds , Jabre Barber returns for 4 yds to the TROY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1865% → 64%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
65.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
65.1%
Gunnar Watson run for 1 yd to the TROY 32Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
64.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Devonte RossSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
64.1%
Robert Cole punt for 53 yds, downed at the APP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6DOWNS
14 plays · 46 yds · 6:1636% → 39%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
63.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 3 yds to the APP 18Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
63.8%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 21Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+9
64.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 9 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
63.1%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
62.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 3 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
62.0%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
62.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 7 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+3
61.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 3 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
61.0%
Joey Aguilar sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the APP 43Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
62.4%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 43Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+18
62.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 18 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
61.0%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the TROY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:3965% → 73%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
65.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
65.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
66.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
66.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
66.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 12 yds to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
66.5%
Asa Martin run for 7 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-10
66.5%
Martin, Asa rush for 3 yards to the APP STATE13, PENALTY TROY holding (Ollendieck, Clayton) 10 yards to the APP STATE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+18
66.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 18 yds to the APP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+6
67.5%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Lewis, Chris, PENALTY APP STATE pass interference (Johnson, Ethan) 6 yards to the APP STATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
67.5%
Vidal, Kimani rush for loss of 1 yard to the APP STATE3, PENALTY TROY illegal formation 5 yards to the APP STATE7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.1%
Kimani Vidal 7 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5429% → 27%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.4%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 24Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
72.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
72.9%
Mitchell Lake punt for 36 yds , Jabre Barber returns for 5 yds to the TROY 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:1173% → 82%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
73.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+11
73.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
73.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
81.8%
Kimani Vidal 36 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2722% → 33%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
78.7%
Nate Noel run for 16 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+40
78.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 40 yds to the TROY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
76.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 5 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
76.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Michael HetzelSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+4
77.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 4 yds to the TROY 10Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
77.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the TROY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
76.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 7 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.1%
Kanye Roberts 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11END OF HALF
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:2472% → 77%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
72.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
75.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 18 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
76.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
76.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
77.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:4527% → 46%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
72.9%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 17Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+13
73.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
72.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
72.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 15 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.7%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 49Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
71.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 14 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
70.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 6 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
68.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
70.5%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
69.0%
Kanye Roberts run for 19 yds to the TROY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
53.7%
Kanye Roberts 6 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3662% → 79%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
63.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
63.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 11 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
79.0%
Chris Lewis 51 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2826% → 25%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
74.1%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
73.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 6 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
73.0%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 35Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
74.9%
Mitchell Lake punt for 51 yds for a 1ST down , Jabre Barber returns for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 24 Jabre Barber fumbled, recovered by APP Milan Tucker for a 1ST down Appalachian State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the TROY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15FG
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:4031% → 30%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
69.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 6 yds to the TROY 18Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
69.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
69.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
71.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 5 yds to the TROY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
69.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-2
70.0%
Kanye Roberts run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 15Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-9
72.8%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 21
OPP 24
+41
70.5%
Michael Hughes 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4972% → 70%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 1 yd to the TROY 26Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
71.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
70.0%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to Lewis, Chris, PENALTY APP STATE pass interference (Johnson, Ethan) 9 yards to the TROY35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.0%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 35Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
71.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
71.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
70.0%
Robert Cole punt for 41 yds, downed at the APP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4731% → 30%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
69.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 17 yds to the APP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
67.3%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
66.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 7 yds to the APP 48Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
65.5%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
67.1%
Appalachian State Penalty, False Start (August Drews) to the APP 43Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
69.8%
Mitchell Lake punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:4472% → 91%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
72.0%
Damien Taylor run for 11 yds to the TROY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
72.4%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+11
73.7%
Damien Taylor run for 11 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
74.9%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
74.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
75.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the APP 45Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
73.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+32
76.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 32 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
77.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the APP 2Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
91.3%
Kimani Vidal 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.4%
Don Callis 10 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:064% → 8%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
96.5%
Anderson Castle run for 23 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
96.3%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 47Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+23
96.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 23 yds to the TROY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
96.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 6 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
95.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+7
96.3%
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete to Jackson, EJ, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Solomon, Javon) 7 yards to the TROY17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APP STATE.Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
96.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 8 yds to the TROY 9Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-1
96.0%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 10Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+3
96.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 3 yds to the TROY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
96.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 6 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
96.1%
Appalachian State Penalty, False Start (Kanen Hamlett) to the TROY 6Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.6%
Eli Wilson 0 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 5:2595% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the APP 38Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.4%
Peyton Higgins run for 3 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+21
96.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 21 yds to the APP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.1%
Kimani Vidal 6 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.5%
Peyton Higgins run for 3 yds to the APP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
98.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 23 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 5 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-4
98.0%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 4 yards to the APP 49 Joey Aguilar fumbled, forced by Javon Solomon, recovered by TROY Javon Solomon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:4899% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the APP 49Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+49
99.9%
Kimani Vidal 49 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 7 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
99.9%
Anderson Castle run for 15 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
50
0
99.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 7
50
+4
99.9%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:31
Chris Lewis 51 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
+15.7
TD · Q3 10:11
Kanye Roberts 6 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)
-15.3
TD · Q4 10:57
Kimani Vidal 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
+14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com