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M-OH

Miami (OH) 23 at Toledo 14

TOL
2023 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2023 · Ford Field
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:21 · Emilio Duran punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+12.5Home team on offense−6.4Score differential−3.4Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:09: Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 13 yds for a TD (Dequan Finn pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +15.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q3 10:55: Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +6.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:00: Dequan Finn run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak PAT MISSED) — TOL win probability +16.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:27: Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +16.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:41: Rashad Amos run for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:40M-OH 4th & 12 at TOL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:30M-OH 4th & 3 at TOL 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:12TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 24, down 3
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:58M-OH 4th & 17 at M-OH 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:13TOL 4th & 4 at M-OH 21, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:36M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:21TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:26M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:56TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:55M-OH 4th & 9 at TOL 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:58M-OH 4th & 5 at TOL 31, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:10TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−3.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:50M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:33TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:27M-OH 4th & 6 at TOL 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−13.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:33TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 42, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:01M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 38, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−3.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:04TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−2.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:49TOL 4th & 2 at M-OH 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:46M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:09TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:00TOL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:41M-OH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:1530% → 30%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
70.5%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 10 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
70.3%
Rashad Amos run for 25 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
70.1%
Smith, Aveon pass incomplete to Larvadain, Gage, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDonald, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIOH.Similar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
70.1%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the TOL 8Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
69.9%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the TOL 7Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-8
69.8%
Aveon Smith sacked by Judge Culpepper and D'Andre Ragin for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 15Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+33
69.8%
Graham Nicholson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5670% → 70%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 24Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
69.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
69.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 10 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
69.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
50
+13
69.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 13 yds to the M-OH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
69.7%
Junior Vandeross III run for 7 yds to the M-OH 30Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-7
69.7%
Dequan Finn sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 7 yards to the M-OH 37 Dequan Finn fumbled, forced by Brian Ugwu, recovered by M-OH Kobe Hilton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0031% → 32%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.7%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
68.7%
Aveon Smith run for 8 yds to the M-OH 45Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
68.2%
Aveon Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
50
+2
67.8%
Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
67.6%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
67.5%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Javon TracySimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+26
67.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 12 Miami (OH) Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the TOL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1068% → 67%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
67.6%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
67.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+5
67.0%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+21
66.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 36 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 21 yds to the TOL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1933% → 40%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
66.7%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the TOL 38Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+25
66.5%
Cade McDonald run for 12 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Deshawn Holt) to the TOL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
65.9%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Jados) to the TOL 23Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+9
65.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 9 yds to the TOL 14Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-1
65.3%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 15Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+8
65.5%
Smith, Aveon pass incomplete to Davis, Kevin, PENALTY TOLEDO targeting (Culpepper, Judge) 8 yards to the TOLEDO7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIOH. Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
64.8%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.3%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4960% → 59%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.8%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
59.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
58.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 48 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 7 yds to the M-OH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3640% → 40%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
60.1%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-15
59.6%
Amos, Rashad rush for 2 yards to the MIAMIOH39, PENALTY MIAMIOH illegal block (Bolden, Luke) 15 yards to the MIAMIOH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
60.2%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+3
60.6%
Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 56 yds, downed at the TOL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2558% → 55%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
57.7%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+15
57.7%
Finn, Dequan rush for no gain to the TOLEDO23, PENALTY MIAMIOH horse collar tackle (Wise, Ty) 15 yards to the TOLEDO38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
57.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 25 yds to the M-OH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
58.1%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the M-OH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
58.9%
Finn, Dequan rush for 7 yards to the MIAMIOH20, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (Rogers, Devan) 10 yards to the MIAMIOH37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+3
57.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+13
55.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 13 yds to the M-OH 21Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
55.3%
Luke Pawlak 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Austin Ertl Pawlak, Luke field goal attempt from 39 blocked, recovered by MIAMIOH Walters, Silas at MIAMIOH21 spot at MIAMIOH21, clock 09:13 (blocked by Ertl, Austin).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1544% → 46%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
56.3%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
55.7%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
53.9%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
54.4%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 45 yds, downed at the TOL 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0453% → 52%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
53.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
52.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+8
51.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 8 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
51.5%
Emilio Duran punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:4648% → 50%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
51.6%
Smith, Aveon pass complete to Davis, Kevin for 45 yards to the TOLEDO27, PENALTY MIAMIOH holding (Holskey, Reid) 10 yards to the MIAMIOH18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+5
51.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the M-OH 23Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+1
50.7%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+9
50.6%
Aveon Smith run for 9 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+7
49.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 48 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 7 yds to the TOL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 3:1050% → 66%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
50.2%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
49.6%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+16
48.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 16 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+33
48.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 33 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
51.2%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the M-OH 15Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+13
51.2%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete to Maddox, Devin, PENALTY MIAMIOH pass interference 13 yards to the MIAMIOH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
51.8%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 7Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-5
52.9%
Toledo Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (David Nwaogwugwu) to the M-OH 12Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
50.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the M-OH 9Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
48.3%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the M-OH 3 Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devan Rogers) to the M-OH 13Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
63.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 13 yds for a TD (Dequan Finn pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
65.8%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Defensive Offside (Austin Ertl) to the M-OH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
58.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0061% → 58%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TOL 25Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 30 yds, downed at the M-OH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15FG
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:4944% → 52%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+32
55.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Rashad Amos for 32 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
53.6%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-3
53.4%
Aveon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 22Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
54.9%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the TOL 22Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
48.5%
Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4051% → 73%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.8%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
52.7%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+44
51.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 44 yds to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
55.5%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete to Vandeross III, Junior, PENALTY MIAMIOH pass interference (Walters, Silas) 15 yards to the MIAMIOH3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak PAT MISSED)Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
72.9%
Toledo Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5033% → 35%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
66.7%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+40
66.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Luke Bolden for 40 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
62.8%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
61.0%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-2
62.4%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
65.0%
Graham Nicholson 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3967% → 65%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
67.4%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 32Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
67.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
65.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
64.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0535% → 34%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
64.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
63.2%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
62.8%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
65.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0766% → 63%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
65.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 9Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
65.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 5 yds to the TOL 14Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
64.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
63.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the TOL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:0339% → 54%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.3%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
61.7%
Aveon Smith run for 11 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
61.1%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the TOL 36Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
61.0%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Gage LarvadainSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+10
61.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Cade McDonald for 10 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
58.5%
Cade McDonald run for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 30Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+1
60.9%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the TOL 29Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+7
62.7%
Aveon Smith run for 7 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
46.5%
Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3954% → 53%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
53.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 16 yds to the TOL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
52.9%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+2
55.0%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 42 Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (David Nwaogwugwu) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
53.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 41 yds, downed at the M-OH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2254% → 57%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
45.7%
Aveon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 15Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+15
46.1%
Rashad Amos run for 15 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
44.5%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
45.2%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 8 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
39.8%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
43.1%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 53 yds, downed at the TOL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5250% → 44%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
49.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
49.1%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+6
47.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
50.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
49.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
48.9%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 33Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
45.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
44.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:1062% → 93%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
37.7%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 29Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
35.8%
Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the M-OH 35Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+50
31.6%
Aveon Smith run for 50 yds to the TOL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
23.0%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the TOL 14Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
22.1%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the TOL 10Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
6.9%
Rashad Amos run for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 1:376% → 4%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+27
6.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 27 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
6.8%
Finn, Dequan pass complete to Boone, Peny for no gain to the MIAMIOH40, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (Sciury, Vinny) 15 yards to the TOLEDO45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+14
5.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the M-OH 41Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+13
4.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 13 yds to the M-OH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
6.3%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the M-OH 20Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
5.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 2
OPP 20
0
4.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
4.2%
Luke Pawlak 38 yd FG BLOCKED for a 1ST down blocked by Rashad Amos for a 1ST down for a 1ST down Dalton Andrews return for 2 yds to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27INT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:216% → 4%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
5.5%
Finn, Dequan rush for 4 yards to the MIAMIOH14, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the MIAMIOH28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
4.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 20
OPP 28
0
5.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 20
OPP 28
0
4.2%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted, touchback. Yahsyn McKee return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:00
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak PAT MISSED)
+16.1
FG · Q4 13:27
Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOOD
-16.1
TD · Q2 0:09
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 13 yds for a TD (Dequan Finn pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion)
+15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com