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MICH

Michigan 26 at Iowa 0

IOWA
2023 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:24 · Deacon Hill pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior−7.9Home team on offense−42.3Score differential−26.5Garbage-time factor−16.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:07: Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +1.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:38: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the MICH 25 — IOWA win probability +1.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:09: Blake Corum run for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +6.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:03: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 5 yds to the MICH 49 — MICH win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:22: James Turner 46 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:36IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26MICH 4th & 7 at IOWA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01MICH 4th & 1 at IOWA 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:46IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:59MICH 4th & 19 at MICH 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:16IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:00MICH 4th & 25 at MICH 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:44MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:43IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:46MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:16IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:03MICH 4th & 8 at IOWA 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:08IOWA 4th & 1 at MICH 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:22MICH 4th & 6 at IOWA 28, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:47IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:13MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 44, up 20
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:14MICH 4th & 13 at IOWA 18, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:24IOWA 4th & 5 at MICH 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:38MICH 4th & 1 at IOWA 32, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:45IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 43, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:07MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:09MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:137% → 7%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for no gain to the IOWA 25Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.2%
Kaleb Brown run for 5 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
7.4%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Zach OrtwerthSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
7.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 7:2393% → 90%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
7.5%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
7.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+13
7.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
50
+5
8.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 5 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
8.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
8.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
8.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+4
8.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 4 yds to the IOWA 31Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 2
OPP 31
-5
9.1%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (Trente Jones) to the IOWA 36Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+10
9.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 10 yds to the IOWA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
9.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the IOWA 21Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
9.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 3 yds to the IOWA 18Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
9.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the IOWA 17Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+35
10.0%
James Turner 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 4:0510% → 12%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 7 yds to the IOWA 32Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
10.5%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 34Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
10.6%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the IOWA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
10.8%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
11.1%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
11.3%
Iowa Penalty, False Start (Nick DeJong) to the IOWA 35Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+5
11.2%
Kaleb Brown run for 5 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+87
11.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 87 yds to the IOWA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3289% → 90%
Q1 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
11.1%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the IOWA 2Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3610% → 10%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
10.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
10.0%
Deacon Hill run for 2 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
10.2%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Hayden Large for 2 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
10.5%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 5 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
10.5%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Kaleb BrownSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
10.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:5989% → 88%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
10.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 14 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
10.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+10
10.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
10.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the IOWA 49Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-10
10.8%
Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trente Jones) to the MICH 41Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+5
11.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 5 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-7
11.6%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Deontae Craig for a loss of 7 yards to the MICH 39Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 19
OWN 39
+13
12.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 13 yds to the IOWA 48 Iowa Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the IOWA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1811% → 11%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
11.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 17Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+2
11.1%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 19Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
10.9%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
10.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:1189% → 88%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
11.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
11.6%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 29Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-16
11.9%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 16 yards to the MICH 13Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 25
OWN 13
0
12.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 25 yds, downed at the MICH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4213% → 13%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
12.7%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 8 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
13.4%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
12.9%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Jaziun Patterson for 1 yd Jaziun Patterson fumbled, recovered by MICH Kris JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1988% → 88%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
11.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
12.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
12.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
12.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2712% → 11%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
12.2%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 11Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
12.3%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the IOWA 14Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
12.0%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Kaleb BrownSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
11.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 67 yds, downed at the MICH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:5287% → 87%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
12.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+9
12.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 9 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
12.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
12.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 4 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
12.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
13.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:2512% → 12%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
12.4%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 7 yds to the IOWA 31Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-5
12.8%
Iowa Penalty, False Start (Nick DeJong) to the IOWA 26Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-8
12.4%
Deacon Hill sacked by Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 8 yards to the IOWA 18Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+6
12.1%
Leshon Williams run for 6 yds to the IOWA 24Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
12.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0788% → 88%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
12.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 17 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
11.7%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Logan Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the MICH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:5087% → 86%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.8%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
12.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
12.7%
Alex Orji run for 5 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-10
12.2%
Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Roman Wilson) to the MICH 31Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+6
13.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+14
13.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 14 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
12.5%
Cornelius Johnson run for no gain to the IOWA 49Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
12.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+2
13.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 2 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
13.7%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3813% → 13%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
13.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 9Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-3
13.2%
Deacon Hill run for 3 yds to the IOWA 6 Deacon Hill fumbled, recovered by MICH Josh Wallace Iowa Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-6 Yards) to the IOWA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.5%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:418% → 9%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.9%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
7.9%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
7.7%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 10 yds to the IOWA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
8.2%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 10 yds to the IOWA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
8.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
8.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the MICH 48Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+4
8.8%
Leshon Williams run for 4 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
8.8%
Deacon Hill run for no gain to the MICH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:4194% → 98%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
6.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 5 yds to the MICH 49Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
6.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
5.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
5.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
4.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the IOWA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
4.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the IOWA 31Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
4.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+3
4.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
2.4%
James Turner 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:263% → 3%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
2.9%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
2.8%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 2 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
2.7%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Addison OstrengaSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
2.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:2098% → 98%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
2.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the MICH 40Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
2.1%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
2.2%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 44Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+21
2.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 52 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 21 yds to the IOWA 35 Iowa Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the IOWA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:122% → 2%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
2.0%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
2.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 7 yds to the IOWA 22Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+4
2.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 4 yds to the IOWA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
2.0%
Deacon Hill sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 9 yards to the IOWA 15 Deacon Hill fumbled, recovered by MICH Kenneth Grant , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the IOWA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0198% → 99%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-8
1.6%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Yahya Black for a loss of 8 yards to the IOWA 23Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+5
1.3%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the IOWA 18Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
1.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to AJ BarnerSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+36
1.0%
James Turner 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
1.4%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 5 yds to the IOWA 31Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+19
1.5%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
50
0
1.5%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Addison OstrengaSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
50
0
1.5%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Diante VinesSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 10
50
+5
1.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 5 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
1.3%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:1999% → 100%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
0.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 9 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
0.6%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the IOWA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for no gain to the IOWA 41Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.5%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+4
0.5%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the IOWA 32Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+50
0.3%
James Turner 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 8 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
0.1%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 12 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.1%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 8 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-5
0.2%
Iowa Penalty, False Start (Nick DeJong) to the IOWA 48Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 7
OWN 48
-5
0.1%
Iowa Penalty, False Start (Mason Richman) to the IOWA 43Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 12
OWN 43
-4
0.1%
Deacon Hill sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the IOWA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
0.2%
Alex Orji run for 4 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 36Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IOWA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:09
Blake Corum run for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-6.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:03
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 5 yds to the MICH 49
-2.6
FG · Q3 0:22
James Turner 46 yd FG GOOD
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com