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LOU

Louisville 6 at Florida State 16

FSU
2023 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:36 · Brady Hodges punt for 49 yds, downed at the FSU 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+7.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score differential−0.6Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 7:02: Brock Travelstead 36 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +6.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:20: Lawrance Toafili 2 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +20.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:36: Brock Travelstead 33 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +8.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:01: Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST down — FSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:05: Trey Benson run for 11 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down — FSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14LOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:04LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:56LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:58FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:36LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:44FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:22LOU 4th & 1 at FSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.8%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:53FSU 4th & 8 at LOU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  9. Q1 0:33LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:32FSU 4th & 13 at LOU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:43LOU 4th & 3 at FSU 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:58FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:44LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:40FSU 4th & 12 at LOU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:22FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:02LOU 4th & 1 at FSU 19, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%−3.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−12.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:53LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:08FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:46FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:56FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 23, up 4
    Numbers favored punt by 5.8 ptsWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%−5.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:31FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:05LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:13FSU 4th & 8 at LOU 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−14.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:35LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−1.7
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:19FSU 4th & 12 at LOU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−3.8
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:21LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 6:20FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5641% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 26Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
58.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 23Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
58.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 5 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
58.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 39 yds, downed at the FSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4559% → 59%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
58.8%
Brock Glenn run for 1 yd to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
58.8%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 2 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-8
58.8%
Brock Glenn sacked by Storm Duck for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 28Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
58.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2341% → 41%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Joey GatewoodSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Brady Hodges punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5859% → 58%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
58.9%
Rodney Hill run for 1 yd to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
58.9%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 2 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
58.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
58.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:2241% → 41%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
58.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 22 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
58.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-13
58.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 13 yards to the LOU 41Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
59.1%
Brady Hodges punt for 49 yds, downed at the FSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5259% → 58%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
58.7%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 11Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-4
58.6%
Brock Glenn sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 7Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+6
58.2%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the FSU 13Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
57.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2242% → 42%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
57.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 40Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
58.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+11
58.7%
Jack Plummer run for 11 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
58.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Josh LifsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2960% → 59%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
50
+1
60.0%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 49Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
60.1%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 48Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
59.8%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
58.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2042% → 41%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
58.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 22Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
58.1%
Kevin Coleman run for 6 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
58.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
58.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:0159% → 60%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
59.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 2 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
59.0%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 26Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+8
58.4%
Glenn, Brock pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Brownlee Jr., Jarvis) 8 yards to the FLORIDAST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
59.3%
Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the FSU 37Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
59.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
60.4%
Brock Glenn run for 7 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
61.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
61.1%
Brock Glenn run for 6 yds to the LOU 39, Louisville Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ashton Gillotte) to the LOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
61.5%
Brock Glenn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
61.5%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Caziah HolmesSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-3
60.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FSU Maurice SmithSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
59.7%
Ryan Fitzgerald 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4439% → 40%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
60.8%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 26Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
60.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+18
61.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 18 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
59.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
58.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
59.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
60.2%
Brady Hodges punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:4562% → 61%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
61.5%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 13Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
61.4%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
60.8%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
61.9%
Brock Glenn run for 4 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
62.1%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+19
60.5%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 19 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
63.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 5
50
-1
64.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
63.0%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
61.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1438% → 36%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
62.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
61.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 20Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
61.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-6
62.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 14Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
63.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:0465% → 62%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
65.4%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Trey Benson for 13 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
65.8%
Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the LOU 18Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-9
65.9%
Brock Glenn sacked by Jaylin Alderman and Stephen Herron for a loss of 9 yards to the LOU 27Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
64.1%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+45
62.0%
Ryan Fitzgerald 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3739% → 35%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
61.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for a loss of 4 yards Jawhar Jordan fumbled, forced by Azareye'h Thomas, recovered by LOU Jawhar JordanSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 14
OWN 23
-10
62.9%
Jordan, Jawhar rush for 18 yards to the LOUISVILLE41, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Hudson, Bryan) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 24
OWN 13
+11
65.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 11 yds to the LOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3863% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
62.5%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
65.2%
Glenn, Brock rush for 18 yards to the LOUISVILLE48, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Jones, Keiondre) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
63.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Trey Benson for 2 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
62.4%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
61.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 49 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for no gain to the LOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:2038% → 47%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.5%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
63.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
63.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 15 yds to the 50 yard line Louisville Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+11
60.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
59.3%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (Jamari Thrash) to the LOU 46Similar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+7
61.5%
Jack Plummer run for 7 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+8
59.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Duane Martin for 8 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
59.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
57.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+7
58.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 7 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
59.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the FSU 19Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+36
53.0%
Brock Travelstead 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4259% → 79%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
58.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 73 yds to the LOU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.3%
Lawrance Toafili 2 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2728% → 25%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 12 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
71.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Josh LifsonSimilar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
73.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
75.0%
Brady Hodges punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4577% → 75%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.8%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
75.7%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Preston DanielSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
74.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3227% → 27%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
72.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 5 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
71.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
72.8%
Brady Hodges punt for 44 yds, downed at the FSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5079% → 77%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
78.8%
Rodney Hill run for 5 yds to the FSU 21Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
79.1%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
77.9%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
76.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1027% → 34%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+41
72.6%
Maurice Turner run for 41 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
70.1%
Jack Plummer run for 7 yds to the FSU 11Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
70.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+4
72.3%
Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the FSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
70.4%
Maurice Turner run for no gain to the FSU 7Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
70.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for a loss of 9 yards to the FSU 16Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 0
OPP 16
0
74.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
66.2%
Brock Travelstead 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · -13 yds · 2:4071% → 68%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.8%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
71.2%
Florida State Penalty, Delay of Game (Brock Glenn) to the FSU 24Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
70.7%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
69.2%
Brock Glenn sacked by Kameron Wilson and Jermayne Lole for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 23Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-11
68.1%
Alex Mastromanno run for a loss of 11 yards to the FSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5539% → 36%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
60.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Nate KuriskySimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
60.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the FSU 11Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
63.6%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback. Tatum Bethune return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3072% → 75%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
71.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
72.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 15 yds to the FSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
75.7%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 44Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+2
74.4%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 46Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
75.3%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
75.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2630% → 27%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-8
69.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Fabien Lovett for a loss of 8 yards to the LOU 6 Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the LOU 6Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 18
OWN 6
-5
70.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 1Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 23
OWN 1
+9
72.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the LOU 10Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 14
OWN 10
0
73.1%
Brady Hodges punt for 39 yds, downed at the LOU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:5282% → 93%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
81.7%
Trey Benson run for 11 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
83.7%
Trey Benson run for 21 yds to the LOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
87.3%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 16Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
88.1%
Brock Glenn run for 1 yd to the LOU 15Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
87.6%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
92.8%
Ryan Fitzgerald 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3613% → 11%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 28Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-8
89.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 8 yards to the LOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30FG
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:1695% → 95%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
94.6%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 19Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
95.6%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Jackson West) to the LOU 24Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+1
95.3%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+1
95.4%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LOU 22Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
95.4%
Ryan Fitzgerald 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:583% → 3%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
97.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 19Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+13
96.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 13 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
96.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-13
97.1%
Jack Plummer sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 13 yards to the LOU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:4097% → 97%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 14
OPP 23
-6
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:20
Lawrance Toafili 2 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
+20.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:05
Trey Benson run for 11 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down
+8.6
FG · Q4 13:36
Brock Travelstead 33 Yd Field Goal
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com