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NMSU

New Mexico State 35 at Liberty 49

LIB
2023 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2023 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:55 · Zach Haynes punt for 47 yds, downed at the LIB 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense−5.4Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 26 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +10.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:03: Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:07: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:57: Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 11 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:51: Billy Lucas run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +23.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 8:57LIB 4th & 2 at NMSU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−7.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 7:55NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:51NMSU 4th & 12 at LIB 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:49NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 5:21LIB 4th & 10 at NMSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00LIB 4th & 1 at NMSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−4.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−16.7
    average punt
  7. Q4 8:23NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 2:40NMSU 4th & 15 at LIB 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:08NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:09LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:38LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:27LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:03NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:15LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:19LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:07NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:57NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:51LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:23LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:5228% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
71.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 9 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
71.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 10 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
71.7%
Monte Watkins run for 12 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
71.7%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
71.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 6 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+5
71.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
68.8%
Diego Pavia run for 25 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5269% → 71%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
69.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
69.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+12
69.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 12 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
69.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
69.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
50
+14
69.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 14 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
69.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 15 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
68.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 20 yds to the NMSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:1430% → 39%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
69.4%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.3%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
68.9%
Star Thomas run for 14 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
68.7%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
68.4%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 36Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
68.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+19
69.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 19 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
68.3%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the LIB 13Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
65.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the LIB 10Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
60.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4DOWNS
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:5061% → 59%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
61.4%
Billy Lucas run for 10 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
61.8%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
62.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 42Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
62.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
50
+18
62.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 18 yds to the NMSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
63.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 8 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
63.6%
Billy Lucas run for no gain to the NMSU 24Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+8
62.9%
Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
62.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
62.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+2
61.5%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 8Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+1
59.4%
Vaughn Blue run for 1 yd to the NMSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0241% → 42%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
58.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 1 yd to the NMSU 8Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
58.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 9
OWN 8
0
59.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
58.0%
Zach Haynes punt for 47 yds, downed at the LIB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:1761% → 71%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
60.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 4 yds to the LIB 49Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+6
61.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
61.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 32 yds to the NMSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
62.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the NMSU 12Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
71.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:4136% → 37%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
63.7%
Makhilyn Young run for 13 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
62.2%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
61.4%
Makhilyn Young run for 3 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
61.7%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
58.9%
Monte Watkins run for 1 yd to the LIB 39Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
59.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 7
OPP 39
-5
61.3%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (BJ Sculark) to the LIB 44Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
62.9%
Zach Haynes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 1:2467% → 81%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
66.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 12 yds to the LIB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
66.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 10 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
67.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
69.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 5 yds to the LIB 48Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+10
69.4%
Kaidon Salter pass short to the right complete for 9 yards to Billy Lucas caught at the NMS49 and advanced to the NMS43 (AUPIU, Sone), out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on SELDON, Andre enforced 10 yards from the LIB48 to the NMS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
69.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 19 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
70.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 7 yds to the NMSU 16Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-10
70.8%
Kaidon Salter pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CJ Daniels thrown to the NMS0. PENALTY LIB Holding on WHITE, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the NMS16 to the NMS26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
70.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+26
81.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 26 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 0:2220% → 40%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
80.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 2
50
+17
78.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 17 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
78.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 16 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
59.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:4066% → 79%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
66.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-10
65.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 64 yards to LIB35 and advanced to NMS7. Liberty Penalty, Illegal Block (Treon Sibley) to the NMSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
69.4%
Aaron Bedgood run for 7 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+6
69.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2626% → 24%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
72.9%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 37Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
74.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
76.3%
Zach Haynes punt for 43 yds , Brylan Green returns for no gain to the LIB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3076% → 88%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
76.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 18 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
78.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for 24 yds to the NMSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
79.7%
Billy Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 23Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+3
79.6%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
87.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
75.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:4679% → 83%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
78.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 27 yds to the NMSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
80.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+14
80.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 14 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
80.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
80.6%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the NMSU 14Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
84.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
84.0%
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the NMSU 14Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
82.5%
Nick Brown 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:2423% → 42%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.3%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
77.6%
Liberty Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Amarian Williams) to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
72.6%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 16 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
72.2%
Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the LIB 14Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
72.2%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Kordell David for 3 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
57.7%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 11 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:0063% → 87%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
62.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 12 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
63.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 6 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
66.1%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+43
66.1%
Billy Lucas run for 43 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
68.5%
Aaron Bedgood run for 6 yds to the NMSU 8Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
68.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for 2 yds to the NMSU 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
66.3%
Billy Lucas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 5Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
64.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.2%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:0222% → 22%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
78.1%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
50
-15
75.2%
BERLOWITZ, Blaze pass to the right complete for 10 yards to BRADY, Jonathan caught at the LIB40 and advanced to the LIB40, out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on FAUPEL, Donovan enforced 15 yards to the NMS35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+3
78.8%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 3 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 22
OWN 38
0
78.8%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 22
OWN 38
+30
79.4%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Bryce Childress for 30 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
73.2%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 7 yds to the LIB 25Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+3
72.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
72.4%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
78.0%
Blaze Berlowitz pass intercepted, touchback. Brandon Bishop return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1988% → 99%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
88.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 12 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
88.5%
Aaron Bedgood run for 33 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 35 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20DOWNS
17 plays · 42 yds · 5:436% → 3%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.3%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 9 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
94.2%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-6
94.0%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the NMSU 29Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+15
94.5%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 15 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+9
94.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
93.6%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 10 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.5%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Louie Canepa) to the LIB 37Similar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
93.5%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 14 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
92.6%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LIB 38Similar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 20
OPP 38
-5
93.7%
New Mexico State Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on VAIPULU, AJ enforced (-5 Yards) to the LIB 43Similar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+10
93.7%
Blaze Berlowitz run for 10 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 15
OPP 33
0
93.3%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 15
OPP 33
0
93.7%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 15
OPP 33
0
96.6%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+52
99.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 52 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.6%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 7Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.5%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 5Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.4%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at NMS6 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:51
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+23
TD · Q2 0:03
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q3 2:57
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 11 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com