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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:06 · Evan Svoboda run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:32: Andrew Peasley run for 43 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +1.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:29: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Will Pelissier for 34 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +2.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:23: Brandon Talton 47 Yd Field Goal — WYO win probability +3.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:43: Ayir Asante 9 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick) — WYO win probability +9.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:09: Harrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick) — WYO win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:47WYO 4th & 11 at NEV 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snapGo for it73.6%−0.127% to convertField goal73.6%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call73.7%average punt
- Q1 8:37NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it27.4%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.5%average punt
- Q1 4:56NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it25.8%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q2 13:28NEV 4th & 11 at WYO 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snapGo for it22.5%−0.625% to convertField goalTheir call23.1%72% to makePunt20.5%−2.5average punt
- Q2 10:53WYO 4th & 15 at WYO 48, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snapGo for it74.5%−1.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q2 8:26NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it22.8%−0.351% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q2 7:09WYO 4th & 3 at midfield, up 11Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snapGo for it76.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 4:08NEV 4th & 3 at WYO 28, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.4%52% to convertField goal23.0%−0.560% to makePunt20.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 2:23NEV 4th & 26 at WYO 29, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snapGo for it20.3%−1.17% to convertField goalTheir call21.4%58% to makePunt19.4%−2.0average punt
- Q2 0:37WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 43, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snapGo for it84.0%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.1%average punt
- Q3 10:03NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 45, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.9%−2.2average punt
- Q3 4:15NEV 4th & 11 at WYO 18, down 29Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.124% to convertField goal1.5%79% to makePunt1.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:54NEV 4th & 12 at WYO 44, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.124% to convertField goal0.2%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 6:32WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.8%97% to makeGo for two72.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:29WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:43WYO Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:09WYO Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:56WYO Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1380% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
20.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 20 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
20.1%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Ayir Asante, broken up by KK MeierSimilar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 11
OPP 44
+54
21.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 44 yds Nevada Penalty, Offensive holding (Caine Savage) to the NEV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1022% → 23%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
21.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dalevon Campbell Wyoming Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Isaiah World) to the NEV 22Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+2
21.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 2 yds to the NEV 19Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+6
21.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 6 yds to the NEV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3TD4 plays · 63 yds · 2:0577% → 79%
NEVDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3622% → 22%
Q1 4:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+14
22.0%
Matt Freem punt for 45 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 14 yds to the WYO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5TD3 plays · 55 yds · 1:2778% → 81%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
21.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Jamari Ferrell for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Defensive holding (Michael Coats Jr.) to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
21.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Caleb Driskill for 11 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
19.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Will Pelissier for 34 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FG12 plays · 43 yds · 5:0120% → 21%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
19.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to John Jackson III for 2 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+15
19.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 15 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
20.1%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to John Jackson III for 11 yds to the WYO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
20.2%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Isaah Crocker Wyoming Penalty, off-side (Jordan Bertagnole) to the WYO 38Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+17
20.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 17 yds to the WYO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-5
20.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the WYO 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+3
20.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 3 yds to the WYO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3579% → 79%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
20.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Alex Brown for 28 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD3 plays · 78 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
NEVDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2321% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1780% → 79%
Q2 8:26
3RD & 3
50
0
20.7%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to John Michael Gyllenborg, broken up by Emany JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG11 plays · 51 yds · 4:4620% → 17%
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+28
20.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
50
+15
21.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to John Jackson III for 15 yds to the WYO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
22.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Kola Babalola for 4 yds to the WYO 28Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+15
20.8%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Spencer Curtis for a 1ST down Wyoming Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Isaac White) to the WYO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3985% → 86%
Q2 0:37
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+47
13.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 37 yds Nevada Penalty, illegal block (Aedan Seiuli) to the NEV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:37
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-7
16.0%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to John Jackson III Nevada Penalty, Offensive holding (Zac Welch) to the NEV 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14TD6 plays · 25 yds · 3:1786% → 94%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+10
13.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 10 yds to the NEV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4010% → 8%
WYODrive 16TD6 plays · 44 yds · 2:5495% → 99%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
5.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 7 yds to the NEV 10Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
5.0%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Treyton Welch for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Defensive pass interference (KK Meier) to the NEV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17DOWNS9 plays · 57 yds · 2:542% → 1%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
2.2%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 19 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
2.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 28 yds to the WYO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
2.4%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to John Jackson III, broken up by Jakorey HawkinsSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 11
OPP 18
0
1.4%
pass incomplete to Spencer Curtis Nevada Penalty, personal foul (Isaiah World) to the WYO 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD12 plays · 82 yds · 6:1998% → 100%
Q3 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+12
1.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 12 yds to the WYO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+19
1.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 19 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
0.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 9 yds to the NEV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.3%
Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Isaah Crocker for a 1ST down Wyoming Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Tyrecus Davis) to the NEV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+20
0.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 20 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
0.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 11 yds to the WYO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
0.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Nate Burleson II for a loss of 2 yards to the WYO 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20Uncategorized15 plays · 69 yds · 4:48100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:43
Ayir Asante 9 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (John Hoyland Kick)
-9
FG · Q2 2:23
Brandon Talton 47 Yd Field Goal
-3.9
TD · Q3 7:09
Harrison Waylee 2 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)
-3.5