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AF

Air Force 19 at Boise State 27

BOIS
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:32 · Carson Bay punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+22.4Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:07: Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 75 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:45: John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AF win probability +9.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:51: Ashton Jeanty run for 50 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +9.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:49: Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +13.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:31: Jonah Dalmas 52 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +7.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:10BOIS 4th & 10 at AF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32AF 4th & 11 at AF 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53AF 4th & 7 at BOIS 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:22AF 4th & 6 at BOIS 33, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:04AF 4th & 9 at BOIS 48, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:45AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−8.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:50AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:09BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 23, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−5.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:12AF 4th & 11 at AF 16, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−3.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:29BOIS 4th & 10 at AF 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:14AF 4th & 20 at AF 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−3.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:31BOIS 4th & 5 at AF 35, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−1.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:30AF 4th & 6 at BOIS 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−2.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:26BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 8:52BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:07BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:45AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:51BOIS Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:49AF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:5075% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.9%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
74.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Austin Bolt for 13 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
74.9%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
74.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
74.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 18 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
74.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for no gain to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
74.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-4
74.5%
Taylen Green sacked by Caden Blum for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
74.3%
Jonah Dalmas 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3826% → 26%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.4%
Ben Brittain sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
74.5%
Carson Bay punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:3874% → 74%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
74.3%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 5
50
-2
74.4%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 48Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+25
74.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 25 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
74.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
74.6%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
74.6%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-15
74.4%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Jalen Mergerson return for 15 yds to the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 5:0126% → 28%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
73.6%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+7
73.5%
Ben Brittain run for 7 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
73.4%
Cade Harris run for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
73.0%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
72.8%
Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
72.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
72.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-1
71.2%
Aiden Calvert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 46Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
72.2%
Carson Bay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 6:0172% → 78%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
72.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 18 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
72.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
72.7%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the BOIS 36Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
72.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
72.6%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 43Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+10
72.6%
GREEN, Taylen pass to the left incomplete intended for BOWENS, Billy thrown to the AFA45; QB hurried by MOCK, Alec. PENALTY AFA Holding on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced 10 yards from the BSU43 to the AFA47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
73.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 18 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
73.8%
George Holani run for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
73.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
73.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
73.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
77.5%
Taylen Green run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:3023% → 25%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.3%
Ben Brittain run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
76.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
76.7%
Ben Brittain run for 8 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+20
76.1%
Dylan Carson run for 20 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.7%
Ben Brittain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
75.8%
Ben Brittain run for 5 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-1
75.5%
Ben Brittain sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 33Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+50
75.3%
Matthew Dapore 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
81.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 75 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:0718% → 23%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.7%
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
80.8%
Cade Harris run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
81.3%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.2%
John Busha run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
81.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+11
81.2%
John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 11 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
80.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
80.6%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-5
80.4%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (Emmanuel Michel) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 11
50
+2
83.3%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the BOIS 48Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+20
83.6%
John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 20 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+45
77.2%
Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1518% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+68
82.0%
Dylan Carson run for 68 yds to the BOIS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
79.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the BOIS 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.3%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
80.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the BOIS 1Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.6%
John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5475% → 86%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
74.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 17 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
76.1%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BOIS 48Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
76.3%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 2
50
+50
86.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 50 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0116% → 15%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.2%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
84.2%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
84.5%
John Busha pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
85.0%
Carson Bay punt for 46 yds, downed at the BOIS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:0187% → 88%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
86.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 14 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.1%
George Holani run for no gain to the BOIS 37Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
86.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 7 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
86.9%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
87.5%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the AFA 40 Boise State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Prince Strachan) to the BOIS 48Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 11
OWN 48
0
88.2%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Jayden Goodwin return for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:0014% → 27%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+38
85.7%
John Busha pass complete to Wyatt Wilson for 38 yds to the BOIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
83.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the BOIS 21Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+2
83.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the BOIS 19Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+11
84.7%
Aiden Calvert run for 11 yds to the BOIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
86.5%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the BOIS 6Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
86.5%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the BOIS 2Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.3%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4076% → 74%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
75.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 6 yards to the BOIS 19Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
75.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+4
74.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 4 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
73.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 70 yds, downed at the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4822% → 21%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
78.3%
Dylan Carson run for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
77.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
77.3%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-6
78.2%
John Busha run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 16 Jalen Johnson fumbled, recovered by AFA John Busha QB Keeper BUSHA, John rush to the right for a loss of 6 yards, BUSHA, John fumbled at AFA19 forced by SIMPSON, Andrew, recovered by AFA BUSHA, John at the AFA16, returned 0 yards to the AFA16, End of Play.Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
79.5%
Carson Bay punt for 43 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:4379% → 80%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
78.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
79.7%
George Holani run for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
79.4%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
77.6%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
79.5%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:1522% → 18%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.7%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
77.9%
John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
77.2%
John Busha run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-9
77.8%
John Busha sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 20
OWN 20
0
79.3%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
81.7%
Luke Freer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:4384% → 94%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
84.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Prince Strachan for 15 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
85.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
85.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.3%
George Holani run for 5 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
87.4%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-2
86.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+52
94.1%
Jonah Dalmas 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:569% → 8%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.9%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
90.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
90.9%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 17 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.7%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
89.1%
John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 16 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
87.9%
Aiden Calvert run for 4 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
86.2%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
88.3%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
91.6%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.1%
George Holani run for no gain to the BOIS 34Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
97.2%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+3
97.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
97.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:135% → 2%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
95.2%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 15 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
94.6%
John Busha pass intercepted Kaonohi Kaniho return for 15 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
97.6%
Air Force Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 32
0
97.7%
Kneel down by GREEN, Taylen at AFA35 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:49
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 10:51
Ashton Jeanty run for 50 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q3 12:45
John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com