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UNLV

UNLV 31 at Air Force 27

AF
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:01 · Carson Bay punt for 41 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for no gain to the UNLV 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense−21.1Pregame prior+0.8Garbage-time factor−11.4Score differential−9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:26: John Lee Eldridge III 55 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) — UNLV win probability +1.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:03: Matthew Dapore 27 Yd Field Goal — UNLV win probability +1.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:41: Vincent Davis Jr. 12 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick) — UNLV win probability +3.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:04: Donavyn Lester 1 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick) — UNLV win probability +4.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:55: Kaleo Ballungay 6 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jose Pizano Kick) — UNLV win probability +1.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 10 of 13UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:22AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:59AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:31AF 4th & 5 at AF 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:31AF 4th & 5 at AF 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:14UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:47AF 4th & 7 at AF 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  8. Q1 3:51UNLV 4th & 13 at AF 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:03UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:06UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 23, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:03AF 4th & 6 at UNLV 10, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:15AF 4th & 12 at UNLV 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:22UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 27, up 8
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:30AF 4th & 8 at AF 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:03AF 4th & 5 at AF 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 12 at AF 38, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:53UNLV 4th & 5 at AF 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−9.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:00UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 48, up 8
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:01AF 4th & 4 at AF 31, down 8
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−0.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:02UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 18, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:02AF 4th & 1 at UNLV 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−4.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−6.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:23AF 4th & 8 at UNLV 8, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%−3.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:48UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3860% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
59.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
59.7%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
59.7%
Carson Bay punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:3440% → 41%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
59.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+78
59.0%
Ricky White 78 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jose Pizano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4959% → 58%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.0%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
59.0%
Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
58.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
57.7%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4INT
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:1242% → 43%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
58.0%
PENALTY AF Delay Of Game (Thiergood,Jayden) 5 yards from NLV23 to NLV28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+22
57.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
50
+20
57.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 20 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.9%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Trey Taylor return for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1658% → 57%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
57.5%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
57.5%
Jensen Jones pass incomplete to Wyatt WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+2
57.3%
Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+3
56.5%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 3 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+3
56.5%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 3 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1743% → 44%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
56.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
56.6%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
56.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
56.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2756% → 55%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
56.1%
Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-5
56.5%
PENALTY AF False Start (Jones,Jensen) 5 yards from AF 34 to AF 29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
56.1%
Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
55.9%
Jensen Jones pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
54.8%
Carson Bay punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5645% → 45%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
55.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 26 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
54.4%
Jayden Maiava sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+3
55.0%
Courtney Reese run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
55.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
54.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 3:2554% → 53%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
54.2%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+4
54.3%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-15
54.3%
PENALTY NLV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnson,Darius) 15 yards from AF 17 to AF 32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
54.5%
Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
54.6%
Jensen Jones run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
55.1%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
55.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+55
53.3%
John Lee Eldridge III 55 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5748% → 47%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.2%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
52.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Irvin Jr.,DeAngelo rush right for 0 yards to the NLV27 (Youngblood,Johnathan) PENALTY NLV Holding (Shanks,Tiger) 10 yards from NLV27 to NLV17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
52.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+11
53.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 11 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
52.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:2652% → 53%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
51.5%
Owen Burk run for 12 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+44
52.0%
Cade Harris run for 29 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Personal Foul (Darius Johnson) to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
54.0%
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
54.0%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
54.0%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.1%
Jensen Jones 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3150% → 50%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
49.6%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
49.8%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
50.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:0350% → 48%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+35
49.5%
Jensen Jones pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 35 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
51.7%
Dylan Carson run for 23 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
52.6%
Jensen Jones run for 1 yd to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
52.6%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-5
49.5%
PENALTY AF False Start (Calvert,Aiden) 5 yards from NLV09 to NLV14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+4
49.4%
Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
48.1%
Matthew Dapore 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2954% → 54%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
45.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Christian EarlsSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
45.9%
Jayden Maiava pass intercepted Johnathan Youngblood return for no gain to the UNLV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:5850% → 50%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
50.3%
Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
50.3%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.9%
Jensen Jones 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5555% → 61%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
45.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
45.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-10
44.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden rush left for 13 yards gain to the NLV49, out of bounds at NLV49 PENALTY NLV Holding (Makihele,Alani) 10 yards from NLV36 to NLV26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+34
46.1%
Jayden Maiava run for 34 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
43.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+16
43.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 16 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
42.9%
Jayden Maiava run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
42.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
39.2%
Vincent Davis Jr. 12 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:4143% → 47%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.0%
Owen Burk run for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
43.8%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
45.0%
Jensen Jones run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+27
42.3%
Jensen Jones run for 27 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
47.7%
Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+42
46.8%
Matthew Dapore 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 0:5260% → 64%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
39.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+84
40.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 84 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.9%
Donavyn Lester 1 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4941% → 38%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.8%
Owen Burk run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
40.7%
Jensen Jones run for 22 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
43.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 17 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
44.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 22 yds to the AFA 42 John Lee Eldridge III fumbled, recovered by AFA John Lee Eldridge III Eldridge III,John Lee rush left for 22 yards loss to the AF 42 fumbled by Eldridge III,John Lee at AF 43 recovered by AF Eldridge III,John Lee at AF 43 (Shelton,Elijah; Turner,Jaxen).Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 32
OWN 42
+19
41.4%
Dylan Carson run for 19 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+1
42.0%
Jensen Jones run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
37.5%
Carson Bay punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5363% → 63%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Corey Thompson Jr.Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
37.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
36.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
37.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5238% → 34%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
37.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+3
37.2%
Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+4
35.9%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
33.7%
Carson Bay punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:3566% → 73%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
33.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
32.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
31.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 7 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
31.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 2
50
+60
31.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 50 yds Air Force Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+33
31.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 33 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
28.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass complete short left to McKie,Senika for 24 yards to the AF 00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:49 PENALTY NLV Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hasz,Jack) 5 yards from AF 24 to AF 29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+22
28.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 22 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.4%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
28.4%
Courtney Reese run for 1 yd to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.6%
Kaleo Ballungay 6 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Jose Pizano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5230% → 27%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.4%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
31.0%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
30.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
27.2%
Carson Bay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:1074% → 79%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
26.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
25.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden sacked for loss of 8 yards to the NLV28 (Richter,Bo) PENALTY AF Targeting (Richter,Bo) 15 yards from NLV36 to AF 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
23.5%
Doug Brumfield run for 13 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
23.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thomas,Jai'Den rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF 33 (Williams,Trey; Mock,Alec) PENALTY NLV Holding (Makihele,Alani) 10 yards from AF 36 to AF 46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 46
0
23.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+8
24.2%
Jayden Maiava run for 8 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
24.3%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Christian EarlsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+12
26.8%
Marshall Nichols pass complete to Kris Williams for 12 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
22.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
22.8%
Jayden Maiava run for 9 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
23.5%
Courtney Reese run for 4 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
21.2%
Jose Pizano 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25FUMBLE
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4025% → 27%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.2%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
25.8%
Jensen Jones pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
28.0%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
29.3%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
29.6%
Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-15
23.9%
Jones,Jensen pass incomplete short right to Engel,Brandon PENALTY NLV Roughing The Passer (Dixon,Jalen) 15 yards from AF 28 to AF 43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
26.8%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 43 Dylan Carson fumbled, recovered by UNLV Tatuo Martinson Carson,Dylan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NLV43 fumbled by Carson,Dylan at NLV44 forced by McDuffie,Marsel recovered by NLV Martinson,Tatuo at NLV43, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 3:5376% → 87%
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-15
23.9%
Jones,Jensen pass incomplete short right to Engel,Brandon PENALTY NLV Roughing The Passer (Dixon,Jalen) 15 yards from AF 28 to AF 43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
14.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
14.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for no gain to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
14.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
13.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5918% → 14%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
17.7%
Owen Burk run for 8 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 10
-15
17.5%
Jones,Jensen pass incomplete deep middle to Engel,Brandon PENALTY NLV Roughing The Passer (McDuffie,Marsel) 15 yards from AF 10 to AF 25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.0%
Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
18.1%
Brandon Engel pass complete to Jensen Jones for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
17.7%
Jensen Jones pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
14.1%
Carson Bay punt for 41 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for no gain to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5989% → 89%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
11.1%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Christian EarlsSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-7
11.8%
Jayden Maiava sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
11.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 29DOWNS
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:3916% → 7%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
16.4%
Jensen Jones run for 12 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
18.1%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
18.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
18.0%
Cade Harris run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
16.5%
Jensen Jones run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
18.5%
Jensen Jones sacked by Jackson Woodard for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+21
8.0%
John Busha pass complete to Wyatt Wilson for 21 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
12.3%
Busha,John pass incomplete deep middle to Wilson,Wyatt, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NLV Pass Interference (Oliver,Cameron) 15 yards from NLV24 to NLV09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
12.3%
Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the UNLV 8Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
12.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the UNLV 8Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
10.8%
Jensen Jones pass incomplete to Caleb RillosSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
7.4%
John Busha pass incomplete to Caleb RillosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2396% → 97%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
3.6%
J. Maiava takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
-1
3.4%
J. Maiava takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:04
Donavyn Lester 1 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick)
-4.1
TD · Q2 1:41
Vincent Davis Jr. 12 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick)
-3.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com