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NEV

Nevada 20 at Colorado State 30

CSU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense+26.9Garbage-time factor+14.6Score differential+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:12: Jordan Noyes 30 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:48: Jordan Noyes 42 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Richard Toney Jr. return for 66 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +7.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:54: Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +13.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 10:44: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 38 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 7:48NEV 4th & 3 at CSU 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:12CSU 4th & 2 at NEV 13, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:54NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:48CSU 4th & 3 at NEV 25, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:40CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:27NEV 4th & 9 at CSU 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:40CSU 4th & 11 at NEV 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:40NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.9%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:26CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 1 at CSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−3.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−12.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:41NEV 4th & 12 at CSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−3.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−9.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:23NEV 4th & 25 at NEV 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:06CSU 4th & 8 at NEV 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:54NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00CSU 4th & 13 at NEV 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:45CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:24CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:00NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:54NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:44CSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:1014% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.6%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
85.6%
Dalevon Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-23
85.3%
AJ Bianco pass intercepted Henry Blackburn return for 23 yds to the NEV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0585% → 86%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
85.4%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the NEV 15Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+4
85.4%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the NEV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
85.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 9 yds to the NEV 2Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
85.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:5715% → 16%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
85.4%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 6 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
85.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 14 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
85.3%
Sean Dollars run for 9 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
85.2%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 5 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
85.2%
AJ Bianco run for 13 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
85.2%
Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-4
85.2%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+4
85.3%
AJ Bianco run for 4 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
83.8%
Brandon Talton 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2484% → 86%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.0%
Justin Marshall run for 12 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
84.1%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
84.2%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 40Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+14
84.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 14 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
84.4%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 48Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+19
84.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 19 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
84.5%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+7
84.5%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
84.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 23 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by CSU Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi [NHSG] QB Keeper FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden rush up the middle for a loss of 6 yards, FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden fumbled at NEV23 , recovered by CSU FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden at the NEV23, returned 0 yards to the NEV23, End of Play.Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 16
OPP 23
0
84.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 16
OPP 23
0
84.1%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the right incomplete intended for GOFFNEY, Dylan thrown to the NEV9. PENALTY NEV Pass Interference on TONEY JR., Richard enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the NEV9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.8%
Tory Horton 8 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5515% → 15%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.1%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+14
85.1%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 14 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
84.9%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-3
85.0%
AJ Bianco sacked by Tyler Quinn for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 30Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+15
85.3%
Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mohamed Kamara) to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:1185% → 87%
Q1 1:23
3RD & 27
OWN 47
+32
85.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 32 yds to the NEV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
85.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 27
OWN 47
0
85.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 25
OWN 49
-2
85.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
85.7%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the NEV 15Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+2
85.2%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the NEV 13Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
87.1%
Jordan Noyes 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1814% → 13%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.2%
Jamaal Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEV 20Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
86.4%
Sean Dollars run for 4 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
86.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Matt Freem punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:0687% → 91%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
87.2%
Avery Morrow run for 13 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
87.7%
Avery Morrow run for 12 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
87.8%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
87.8%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
87.8%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
87.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
88.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
90.9%
Jordan Noyes 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:4710% → 10%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
89.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 20 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
89.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 26 yds to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
88.3%
Jamaal Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 33Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 14
OPP 33
-15
89.0%
LEWIS, Brendon pass short to the right complete for 3 yards to DOLLARS, Sean caught at the CSU30 and advanced to the CSU30 (WILSON, Chase). PENALTY NEV Personal Foul on WORLD, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the CSU33 to the CSU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 29
OPP 48
-1
89.7%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 49Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 30
OPP 49
-5
89.8%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 46Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 35
OWN 46
+3
89.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 3 yds to the NEV 49Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 32
OWN 49
0
90.1%
Matt Freem punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:2191% → 92%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
91.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-1
91.2%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 5Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+15
91.0%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus thrown to the CSU40. PENALTY NEV Pass Interference on COATS JR., Michael enforced 15 yards to the CSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
91.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
92.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
92.3%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:1311% → 12%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.5%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
89.5%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the right complete for 21 yards to CAMPBELL, Dalevon caught at the CSU48 and advanced to the CSU39 (MORRIS, Dominic;HOWELL, Jack). PENALTY NEV Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MADRIGAL, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the NEV40 to the NEV35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
90.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 8 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
89.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 5 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
89.2%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 49Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+14
89.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 14 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
88.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 3 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+8
88.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 8 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
88.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 12 yds to the CSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
88.1%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 16Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+3
88.9%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
89.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
88.2%
Brandon Talton 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12INT TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:2791% → 84%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
91.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 5 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
91.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 10 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-66
84.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Richard Toney Jr. return for 66 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:2083% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.1%
Vann Schield run for 7 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
83.8%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+53
83.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 53 yds to the NEV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
84.6%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
84.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
84.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
85.6%
Jordan Noyes 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4614% → 30%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
84.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
85.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
84.9%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 42Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
84.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 6 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
84.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brendon Lewis for 1 yd to the NEV 49Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+14
85.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 14 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
84.2%
Sean Dollars run for 20 yds to the CSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
83.2%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
83.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 7 yds to the CSU 8Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
84.0%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the left incomplete intended for CURTIS, Spencer broken up by JONES, Dom at the CSU0. PENALTY CSU Offsides on PIERCE, JR., Tony enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the CSU8 to the CSU4 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
83.2%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Justin Sanchez and Tony Pierce Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 9Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2876% → 76%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.8%
Justin Marshall run for 15 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
76.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 6 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
77.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
75.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 39 yds, downed at the NEV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16MISSED FG
19 plays · 59 yds · 7:4526% → 27%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
74.3%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 21Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
73.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+8
75.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 8 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
73.8%
Nevada Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah World) to the NEV 21Similar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 18
OWN 21
-5
74.3%
Jamaal Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEV 16 Jamaal Bell fumbled, recovered by NEV Jamaal Bell [NHSG] BELL, Jamaal rush to the right for a loss of 5 yards, BELL, Jamaal fumbled at NEV16 , recovered by NEV BELL, Jamaal at the NEV16, returned 0 yards to the NEV16, End of Play.Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 23
OWN 16
+12
74.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 12 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-5
75.4%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (Tyson Ruffins) to the NEV 23Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 16
OWN 23
+31
75.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 31 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
70.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the CSU 45Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+11
70.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 11 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
69.4%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
66.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+3
67.4%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+1
69.1%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
65.6%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the CSU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
65.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-7
67.3%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the CSU 26Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
72.8%
Brandon Talton 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5776% → 90%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
75.7%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 27Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
75.1%
Dane Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
73.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
76.7%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+21
78.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 21 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
89.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 38 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:1613% → 8%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
87.4%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 28 Sean Dollars fumbled, recovered by NEV Sean Dollars [NHSG] DOLLARS, Sean rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard, DOLLARS, Sean fumbled at NEV27 forced by PIERCE, JR., Tony, recovered by NEV DOLLARS, Sean at the NEV28, returned 0 yards to the NEV28, End of Play.Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+13
87.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 13 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
85.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 10 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
84.7%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 2 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
85.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-17
85.7%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Chase Wilson for a loss of 17 yards to the NEV 36Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 25
OWN 36
0
92.0%
Matt Freem punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1792% → 94%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
91.8%
Justin Marshall run for 12 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
92.4%
Justin Marshall run for 13 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
94.2%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to HOLKER, Dallin caught at the NEV46 and advanced to the NEV41 (SAVAGE, Caine). PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on BROWN IV, Louis enforced 15 yards to the CSU37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 25
OWN 37
0
93.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 25
OWN 37
0
93.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 25
OWN 37
+17
93.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 17 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
93.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:128% → 7%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
92.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 3 yds to the NEV 16Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+2
92.1%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 2 yds to the NEV 18Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
92.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
93.3%
Matt Freem punt for 49 yds, downed at the CSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 19 yds · 3:5494% → 97%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
94.1%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-5
94.5%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Drew Moss) to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+9
94.0%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
96.6%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
96.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 10 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.4%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the NEV 45Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the NEV 45Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+2
97.2%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the NEV 43Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 8
OPP 43
-5
97.0%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 48Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
97.1%
punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:54
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q4 10:44
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 38 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 0:00
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Richard Toney Jr. return for 66 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com