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BOIS

Boise State 45 at Utah State 10

USU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:30 · Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.3Pregame prior−14.6Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:43: George Holani run for 75 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 14:30: Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:27: George Holani run for 33 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:59: Matt Lauter 2 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +11.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:34: Ashton Jeanty 5 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:33BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05USU 4th & 14 at USU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:11BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:42USU 4th & 2 at BOIS 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:56BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:30BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:55USU 4th & 12 at BOIS 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:30USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:00USU 4th & 2 at BOIS 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:29USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00BOIS 4th & 12 at USU 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−5.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:59USU 4th & 4 at USU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:29USU 4th & 18 at BOIS 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:26BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:24USU 4th & 9 at BOIS 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:25BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:38USU 4th & 9 at BOIS 39, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:38BOIS 4th & 1 at USU 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:22USU 4th & 3 at BOIS 17, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:45USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:43BOIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:30BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:27BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:59BOIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:34BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:03BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2769% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.0%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the BOIS 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
31.0%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
31.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
31.7%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2832% → 32%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
31.7%
Cooper Legas sacked by Ty Benefield for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 33Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-5
31.6%
FAISON, Rahsul rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the USU37 (TEUBNER, Alexander). PENALTY Before the snap, USU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the USU33 to the USU28. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+4
31.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
31.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
32.1%
Ryan Marks punt for 48 yds , returns for no gain to the BOIS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5468% → 67%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
32.2%
Kaden Dudley run for no gain to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
32.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
32.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
32.9%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2933% → 34%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
32.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 7 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+19
32.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 19 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
33.0%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
33.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 6 yds to the BOIS 48Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-1
33.0%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 49Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
33.8%
Ryan Marks punt for 42 yds, downed at the BOIS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4666% → 65%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
33.7%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the BOIS 9Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+12
33.7%
George Holani run for 12 yds to the BOIS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
33.6%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 25Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
33.5%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
33.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for no gain to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
35.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
39.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 57 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:1562% → 60%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
38.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 23 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
37.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
50
0
37.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 8
50
-1
37.8%
Taylen Green sacked by Anthony Switzer for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 49Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
40.4%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:3540% → 44%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
40.4%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 20Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
40.3%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
39.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 11 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
40.5%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+49
41.1%
Davon Booth run for 49 yds to the BOIS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
41.6%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 16Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+2
41.5%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the BOIS 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-3
44.0%
Cooper Legas sacked by DJ Schramm for a loss of 3 yards to the BOIS 17Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
43.8%
Elliott Nimrod 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
39.3%
George Holani run for 75 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0639% → 39%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.0%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USU 20Similar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
38.9%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 6 yds to the USU 26 Robert Briggs Jr. fumbled, recovered by BOIS Rodney Robinson [NHSG] BRIGGS, Robert rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards, BRIGGS, Robert fumbled at USU25 forced by FELY, Braxton, recovered by BSU ROBINSON, Rodney at the USU26, returned 0 yards to the USU26, End of Play, clock 14:37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
33.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12DOWNS
15 plays · 54 yds · 6:3035% → 37%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.0%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
35.1%
Cooper Legas sacked by Ty Benefield for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 24Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
34.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 10 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
34.6%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
36.3%
Cooper Legas sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 38Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
35.9%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the USU 38Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+24
35.2%
Cooper Legas run for 24 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
37.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
37.8%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 13 yds to the BOIS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
38.6%
Davon Booth run for 18 yds to the BOIS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.5%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the BOIS 7Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
37.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 5 yds to the BOIS 2Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-21
36.5%
Terrell Vaughn pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for 21 yds to the BOIS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:3365% → 74%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
34.7%
George Holani run for 27 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
33.0%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+12
32.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
25.7%
George Holani run for 33 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2626% → 26%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.2%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
26.0%
McCae Hillstead sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:5675% → 86%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
25.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+16
25.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for 16 yds to the USU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
25.4%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the USU 2Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.4%
Matt Lauter 2 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3019% → 17%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.9%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
17.5%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 5 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
17.8%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 25Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
16.8%
Ryan Marks punt for 41 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FG
16 plays · 39 yds · 2:2985% → 92%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
15.3%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-3
15.4%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the BOIS 37Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+9
16.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 9 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
15.2%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
50
+12
15.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
11.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
11.1%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
11.5%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
11.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-2
10.9%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 27Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
8.5%
Jonah Dalmas 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0113% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
13.2%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
13.0%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
12.9%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 7 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
12.9%
Ryan Marks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:2591% → 97%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
9.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
9.6%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the BOIS 36Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+31
9.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Prince Strachan for 31 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
8.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+13
8.7%
Taylen Green run for 13 yds to the USU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
8.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the USU 5Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
2.9%
Ashton Jeanty 5 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.2%
McCae Hillstead run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
3.1%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 25Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
3.1%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 10 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
2.9%
McCae Hillstead pass intercepted Rodney Robinson return for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
2.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for no gain to the BOIS 32Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
2.9%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BOIS 33Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+5
3.0%
GREEN, Taylen pass short to the left incomplete intended for BOWENS, Billy thrown to the BSU38. PENALTY USU Offsides on DREW, JD enforced 5 yards from the BSU33 to the BSU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
2.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:263% → 2%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for no gain to the USU 38Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
2.7%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 13 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.0%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+18
2.9%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 18 yds to the BOIS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
3.3%
HILLSTEAD, McCae pass deep to the right incomplete thrown to the BSU15; QB hurried by SIMPSON, Andrew. PENALTY USU Holding on MEACHAM, Wade enforced 10 yards from the BSU31 to the BSU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+4
3.1%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 4 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 16
OPP 37
0
3.0%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 16
OPP 37
-2
3.0%
McCae Hillstead sacked by A'Marion McCoy for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 39Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
2.4%
Ryan Marks punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
2.0%
George Holani run for 24 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
1.9%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the BOIS 41Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+2
1.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Kaden Dudley for 2 yds to the BOIS 43Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
2.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
2.3%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
1.4%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+45
1.4%
Davon Booth run for 45 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
1.6%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
1.6%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Seyi Oladipo and Max Stege for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 49Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+3
1.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 3 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
1.2%
Ryan Marks punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:5998% → 99%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
1.8%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
1.8%
Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
0.8%
Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the BOIS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
0.8%
George Holani run for a loss of 9 yards to the BOIS 22 George Holani fumbled, recovered by BOIS George Holani [NHSG] HOLANI, George rush up the middle for a loss of 9 yards, HOLANI, George fumbled at BSU25 , recovered by BSU HOLANI, George at the BSU22, returned 0 yards to the BSU22 (MIGAO, Enoka;HARRIS, Simeon).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 22
+2
0.8%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+4
0.9%
Jambres Dubar run for 4 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
0.7%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 49 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the USU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:471% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.5%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 2 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
0.5%
Boise State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Andrew Simpson) to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
0.6%
Levi Williams run for 1 yd to the BOIS 39Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
0.6%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
0.6%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 9
OPP 39
-13
0.4%
Levi Williams sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 13 yards to the USU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 4:35100% → 100%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
0.5%
Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+16
0.5%
Jambres Dubar run for 16 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.4%
Jambres Dubar run for no gain to the USU 27Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
0.4%
Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the USU 20Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
0.4%
Jambres Dubar run for 2 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+8
0.5%
Jambres Dubar run for 8 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.2%
Jambres Dubar 10 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:410% → 0%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.2%
Cooper Jones run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
0.2%
Levi Williams pass complete to Micah Davis for 25 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
0.2%
Levi Williams run for 2 yds to the BOIS 47Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
0.2%
Levi Williams run for 7 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
0.2%
Cooper Jones run for 2 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.2%
Cooper Jones run for 3 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
0.2%
WILLIAMS, Levi pass to the right incomplete intended for BOWMAN, Colby thrown to the BSU20. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on THORNTON, Dione enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the BSU24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
0.2%
Cooper Jones run for 5 yds to the BOIS 19Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
0.2%
Levi Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
0.2%
Cooper Jones run for 2 yds to the BOIS 17Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 3
OPP 17
0
0.1%
Cooper Jones run for no gain to the BOIS 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
0.1%
Tyler Crowe run for 8 yds to the BOIS 25Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TILLER, CJ at BSU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:59
Matt Lauter 2 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Jonah Dalmas Kick)
-11
TD · Q2 6:27
George Holani run for 33 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q3 10:34
Ashton Jeanty 5 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com