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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:47 · Jose Pizano 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:22: Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:09: Andrew Peasley run for 32 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +11.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:58: Wyatt Wieland run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +10.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:46: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +15.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:41: Jose Pizano 39 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:13WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snapGo for it41.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.3%average punt
- Q1 7:36WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 14Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snapGo for it36.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:54WYO 4th & 18 at WYO 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.1%−1.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q2 12:19UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 41, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 72.3% before the snapGo for it72.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.5%−1.5average punt
- Q2 10:46WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.2%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q2 9:05UNLV 4th & 1 at WYO 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.3%70% to convertField goal70.3%−3.927% to makePunt71.7%−2.6average punt
- Q2 1:44UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snapGo for it66.3%−1.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%average punt
- Q3 12:28UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 49, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snapGo for it72.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.5%−1.4average punt
- Q3 12:28UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 49, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snapGo for it72.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.5%−1.4average punt
- Q3 9:04WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it27.4%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q4 14:06WYO 4th & 3 at UNLV 34, down 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.7%53% to convertField goalTheir call9.3%−1.447% to makePunt8.3%−2.4average punt
- Q4 7:41UNLV 4th & 6 at WYO 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snapGo for it94.9%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call95.1%74% to makePunt91.6%−3.5average punt
- Q4 6:37WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 12, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q4 0:47UNLV 4th & 11 at WYO 25, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%66% to makePunt97.8%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:52UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.4%97% to makeGo for two59.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:47UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.3%97% to makeGo for two63.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:22UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.2%97% to makeGo for two73.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:09WYO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.0%97% to makeGo for two29.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:58WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.9%97% to makeGo for two30.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:46UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two87.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3346% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD3 plays · 70 yds · 0:1354% → 55%
Q1 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+56
53.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 56 yds to the WYO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3FUMBLE4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1045% → 45%
Q1 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
55.2%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Elijah Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 29 Andrew Peasley fumbled, recovered by WYO Darius Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4TD7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4156% → 60%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
55.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 14 yds to the WYO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0141% → 40%
Q1 7:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
60.1%
Clayton Stewart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD7 plays · 67 yds · 2:5961% → 69%
WYODrive 7PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1132% → 27%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
70.6%
Andrew Peasley run for 6 yds to the WYO 27 Andrew Peasley fumbled, recovered by WYO Andrew Peasley (03:34) Shotgun Peasley,Andrew rush middle for 6 yards loss to the WYO27 fumbled by Peasley,Andrew at WYO33 recovered by WYO Peasley,Andrew at WYO27, End Of Play.Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 16
OWN 27
-2
71.6%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Cooper Webb for a loss of 2 yards to the WYO 25Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 18
OWN 25
+9
73.0%
Clayton Stewart punt for 44 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 9 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 13 yds · 0:4773% → 74%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
73.9%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the WYO 47 Jayden Maiava fumbled, recovered by WYO Sabastian Harsh (00:56) No Huddle Maiava,Jayden rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WYO47 fumbled by Maiava,Jayden at WYO46 recovered by WYO Harsh,Sabastian at WYO47, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9TD4 plays · 53 yds · 1:4127% → 36%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
50
-10
74.3%
(00:15) Scott,Sam rush left for 6 yards gain to the UNLV44 (McDuffie,Marsel) PENALTY WYO Holding (King,Wes) 10 yards from WYO50 to WYO40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+28
75.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 28 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3169% → 69%
WYODrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3332% → 31%
UNLVDrive 12DOWNS4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3472% → 72%
Q2 9:48
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+8
71.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 8 yds to the WYO 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13TD12 plays · 51 yds · 6:0231% → 37%
Q2 7:41
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+8
70.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Will Pelissier for 8 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
71.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 7 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
72.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 2 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:5968% → 66%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
67.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 24 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
69.9%
(02:22) PENALTY UNLV False Start (St. John,Jalen) 5 yards from UNLV47 to UNLV42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
65.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Caleb Cooley at the WYO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15INT11 plays · 76 yds · 1:2933% → 37%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
67.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 13 yds to the WYO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
67.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 28 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
64.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 5 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
63.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 6 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+19
63.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 19 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 2:2669% → 69%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
68.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 9 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
70.2%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Shanks,Tiger) 5 yards from UNLV41 to UNLV36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
69.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Caleb Cooley at the WYO 9Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
69.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Caleb Cooley at the WYO 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2431% → 29%
UNLVDrive 19TD14 plays · 70 yds · 6:1873% → 91%
Q3 9:04
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+18
73.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 18 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
75.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the WYO 30Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-5
74.5%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Makihele,Alani) 5 yards from WYO29 to WYO34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+11
74.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 11 yds to the WYO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20MISSED FG9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4013% → 11%
Q3 2:46
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+32
87.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 32 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21FG13 plays · 45 yds · 6:2593% → 97%
Q4 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+15
92.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 15 yds to the WYO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
93.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 6 yds to the WYO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
93.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the WYO 20Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-10
93.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maiava,Jayden pass complete short middle to Earls,Christian for 8 yards to the WYO08 (Johnson,Andrew) PENALTY UNLV Holding (Shanks,Tiger) 10 yards from WYO16 to WYO26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+5
93.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the WYO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:004% → 3%
Q4 6:37
4TH & 12
OWN 12
0
96.8%
Clayton Stewart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23FG12 plays · 28 yds · 5:5097% → 100%
Q4 3:04
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+16
99.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 16 yds to the WYO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24END OF GAME6 plays · 13 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.4%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Will Pelissier for 7 yds to the WYO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:46
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q2 14:09
Andrew Peasley run for 32 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 2:58
Wyatt Wieland run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
-10