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SDSU

San Diego State 19 at Colorado State 22

CSU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.5CSU 69.2%Jordan Noyes 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 8 · Q2 10:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:22 · Jordan Noyes 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense+4.8Pregame prior+9.2Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:22: Jordan Noyes 30 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:19: Dallin Holker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:31: Justin Marshall run for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:37: Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds for a TD — SDSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:04: Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +26.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:31SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:42CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:18SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:27CSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:09CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 27, up 2
    Close callPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:42CSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 17, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:39SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 43, down 5
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 49, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.0%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:22CSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 13, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:27SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:15SDSU 4th & 16 at CSU 45, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:07CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:10SDSU 4th & 3 at CSU 5, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−7.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:06SDSU 4th & 8 at CSU 21, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:03CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 22, up 16
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:04SDSU 4th & 1 at CSU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−4.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 4:19CSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:31CSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:04SDSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2936% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 5 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-9
63.8%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Marshon Oxley for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSU 21Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
63.8%
Jack Browning punt for 65 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4964% → 64%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
63.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
63.7%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
63.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
63.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 yds, downed at the SDSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2436% → 36%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
63.6%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
63.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
63.7%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
63.6%
Jack Browning punt for 60 yds, downed at the CSU 1Similar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.6%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the CSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:5164% → 63%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
63.6%
Vann Schield run for 15 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
63.6%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the CSU 20Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+18
63.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 18 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
63.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 7 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
64.0%
Vann Schield run for no gain to the CSU 45Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+15
63.9%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus thrown to the SDS20. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on TUMBLIN, Noah enforced 15 yards to the SDS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
64.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSU 46 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by CSU Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi [NHSG] QB Keeper FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden rush up the middle for a loss of 6 yards, FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden fumbled at SDS46 , recovered by CSU FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden at the SDS46, returned 0 yards to the SDS46, End of Play.Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+7
63.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
63.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
63.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for no gain to the CSU 20Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
63.2%
punt for 35 yds, downed at the SDSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5SF
2 plays · -7 yds · 1:2937% → 35%
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
63.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the SDSU 7Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
64.6%
Mohamed Kamara SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4364% → 63%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
64.0%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
64.0%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+2
63.6%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
63.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 58 yds , returns for no gain to the SDSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2765% → 65%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
65.4%
Vann Schield run for no gain to the SDSU 18Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-15
65.4%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus thrown to the SDS0. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus enforced 15 yards to the SDS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 25
OPP 33
+16
64.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 16 yds to the SDSU 17Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
65.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
64.6%
Jordan Noyes 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0335% → 35%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
64.9%
Cam Davis run for 12 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
64.5%
Joshua Nicholson run for 5 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
63.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 1 yd to the SDSU 43Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
64.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
64.8%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1764% → 69%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
64.2%
Justin Marshall run for 12 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
64.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for a loss of 7 yards to the CSU 17 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by CSU [NHSG] QB Keeper FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden rush up the middle for a loss of 7 yards, FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden fumbled at CSU17 , recovered by CSU JERVIS, Oliver at the CSU17, returned 0 yards to the CSU17, End of Play, clock 00:00.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
65.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSU 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+9
64.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 9 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+14
63.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
65.2%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
65.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
65.0%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
64.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
65.6%
Justin Marshall run for 21 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
66.0%
Justin Marshall run for 17 yds to the SDSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
66.0%
MARSHALL, Justin rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the SDS4 (BARFIELD, Cedarious;MOON, Cody). PENALTY CSU Holding on GARDNER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the SDS11 to the SDS21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 21
0
65.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 21
0
65.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 21
+8
64.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 8 yds to the SDSU 13Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
69.2%
Jordan Noyes 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5530% → 29%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.5%
Colorado State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
69.6%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
69.0%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSU 47Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
69.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 45Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
71.5%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:0870% → 82%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
70.2%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+4
70.2%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
69.6%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
70.4%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the SDS35. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on TUMBLIN, Noah enforced 15 yards to the CSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
71.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 11 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
71.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 3 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+42
71.9%
Tory Horton pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 42 yds to the SDSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
72.1%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the SDSU 1 Vann Schield fumbled, recovered by CSU [NH] SCHIELD, Vann rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards, SCHIELD, Vann fumbled at SDS3 forced by JOHNSON, Chris, recovered by CSU GARDNER, Jacob at the SDS1, returned 0 yards to the SDS1, End of Play.Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.3%
Dallin Holker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5721% → 19%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
79.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 10 yds to the SDSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
79.2%
Cam Davis run for 19 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
78.6%
MAYDEN, Jalen sacked for a loss of 4 yards at the CSU43 (KAMARA, Mohamed;KELLY, Grady). PENALTY SDS Holding on CRENSHAW-DICKSON, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the CSU39 to the CSU49 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+1
79.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 1 yd to the CSU 48Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+8
79.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 8 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-5
78.9%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Henry Blackburn for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 45Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
80.6%
Jack Browning punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:1582% → 84%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
81.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 13 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
81.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
82.0%
Vann Schield run for 7 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
83.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 17 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
84.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5384% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.9%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
83.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
83.6%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
83.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
83.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
83.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:5717% → 20%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+39
83.2%
Kenan Christon run for 39 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
81.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 25 yds to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
80.2%
Jalen Mayden run for no gain to the CSU 12Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
80.2%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 14Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+9
81.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 9 yds to the CSU 5Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
79.9%
Gabriel Plascencia 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3983% → 95%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.3%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
83.5%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+41
83.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 41 yds to the SDSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
84.4%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the SDSU 23Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
84.4%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the SDSU 19Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+14
83.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 14 yds to the SDSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.5%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:189% → 10%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
90.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 14 yds to the SDSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
90.6%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SHAW, Mekhi thrown to the CSU15. PENALTY CSU Offsides on MITCHELL, James enforced 5 yards from the SDS48 to the CSU47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+9
90.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 9 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
90.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Phillippe Wesley II for 5 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
89.4%
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+7
90.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
89.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-2
89.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+4
90.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 4 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
89.6%
Gabriel Plascencia 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5592% → 92%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
92.3%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
92.6%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 22Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
92.5%
Vann Schield run for no gain to the CSU 22Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
92.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:2611% → 19%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
89.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the CSU 43Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
89.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 8 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
88.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 1 yd to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-2
88.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+19
89.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 19 yds to the CSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
88.0%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-5
88.0%
San Diego State Penalty, False Start (Thomas Mirabella) to the CSU 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+3
88.7%
MAYDEN, Jalen sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the CSU21 (GATKUOTH, Nuer;THOMAS, Matt). PENALTY CSU Face mask on THOMAS, Matt enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the CSU18 to the CSU9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
88.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 1 yd to the CSU 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
81.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0385% → 91%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.4%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
85.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 4 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.7%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
86.7%
Justin Marshall run for 13 yds to the SDSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
87.0%
Vann Schield run for 8 yds to the SDSU 40Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+15
86.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 15 yds to the SDSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
90.7%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the SDSU 20 Vann Schield fumbled, recovered by SDSU Zyrus Fiaseu [NHSG] SCHIELD, Vann rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards, SCHIELD, Vann fumbled at SDS20 forced by MALONE, Dez, recovered by SDS FIASEU, Zyrus at the SDS20, returned 0 yards to the SDS20, End of Play, clock 08:34.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:3011% → 33%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.8%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
89.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSU 26Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
88.6%
Cam Davis run for 15 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.6%
MAYDEN, Jalen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Baylin thrown to the CSU30. PENALTY CSU Offsides on GATKUOTH, Nuer declined CSU Pass Interference on JONES, Dom enforced 15 yards to the CSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.5%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the CSU 44Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
85.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 14 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
84.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
83.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+10
85.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Phillippe Wesley II for 10 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
83.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the CSU 8Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+5
83.8%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the CSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the CSU 2Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.8%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the CSU 1Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.2%
Nick Gardinera run for no gain to the CSU 1Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.0%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:0485% → 95%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.2%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
90.7%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
89.9%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.4%
[NH] Kneel down by CSU at CSU35 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
94.8%
Kneel down by CSU at CSU32 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:04
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
-26.1
TD · Q3 7:31
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q2 4:19
Dallin Holker run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com