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NEV

Nevada 24 at Utah State 41

USU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:16 · Ryan Marks punt for 41 yds, downed at the NEV 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense+28.7Score differential+20.8Garbage-time factor+11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:50: AJ Bianco pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 21 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +3.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:56: Seni Tuiaki 63 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Nimrod Kick) — USU win probability +5.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 47 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +5.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:42: Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:21: Sean Dollars run for 5 yds for a TD (AJ Bianco pass to Sean Dollars for Two-Point Conversion) — NEV win probability +4.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:03USU 4th & 4 at NEV 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:06NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:20USU 4th & 4 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:14USU 4th & 4 at USU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:04NEV 4th & 22 at NEV 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10USU 4th & 4 at NEV 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:25NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:16NEV 4th & 6 at USU 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:16NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:25USU 4th & 3 at NEV 20, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:01NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:00USU 4th & 12 at USU 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:03USU 4th & 14 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:04NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:08NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:16USU 4th & 7 at USU 26, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:49NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 41, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:13USU 4th & 10 at USU 8, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:39NEV 4th & 10 at USU 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 11:03USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:56USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:48USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:42USU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:21NEV Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:27USU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:29NEV Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5786% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.5%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
85.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
85.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 19 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
85.5%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 2 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+13
85.5%
Cooper Legas run for 13 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
85.5%
LEGAS, Cooper pass deep to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Terrell thrown to the NEV15. PENALTY NEV Holding on SAVAGE, Caine enforced 10 yards from the NEV38 to the NEV28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
85.5%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 6 yds to the NEV 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+14
85.5%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 14 yds to the NEV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
85.5%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 1 yd to the NEV 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
85.5%
Cooper Legas run for 3 yds to the NEV 4Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.2%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 4 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5215% → 15%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
85.0%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
85.0%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
85.1%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 28Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
85.1%
Matt Freem punt for 40 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain Utah State Penalty, Holding Illegal Block in the Back on MONNEY, Will enforced (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4685% → 85%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
85.0%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
85.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 5 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
85.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 6 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.2%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 44Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
85.2%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-3
85.2%
Terrell Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 4
50
0
84.7%
Ryan Marks punt for 41 yds, downed at the NEV 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:3015% → 20%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
84.6%
Utah State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Anthony Switzer) to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
84.5%
Nevada Penalty, Illegal Snap on MADRIGAL, Andrew enforced (-5 Yards) to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+22
84.6%
Sean Dollars run for 22 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
84.2%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 44Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Sean Dollars run for no gain to the NEV 44Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+1
84.6%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Sean Dollars for 1 yd to the NEV 45Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+19
84.7%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 19 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
84.1%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for no gain to the USU 36Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
84.1%
BIANCO, AJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CAMPBELL, Dalevon thrown to the USU2. PENALTY USU Pass Interference on ANYANWU, Michael enforced 15 yards to the USU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
80.3%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 21 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3682% → 81%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.6%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
81.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 6 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
81.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 31Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
80.7%
Ryan Marks punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:1019% → 20%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
80.6%
Sean Dollars run for 9 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+4
80.2%
Jamaal Bell run for 4 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
80.0%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 3 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
79.8%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-15
80.3%
BIANCO, AJ pass deep to the left complete for 39 yards to CURTIS, Spencer caught at the USU35 and advanced to the USU30 (DYE, Devin). PENALTY NEV Face mask on MADRIGAL, Andrew enforced 15 yards from the NEV31 to the NEV16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 16
0
80.5%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 22
OWN 16
0
80.5%
Matt Freem punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 2:5481% → 81%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.3%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
81.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
81.2%
LEGAS, Cooper pass short to the left incomplete intended for ROYALS, Jalen broken up by COATS JR., Michael at the NEV43. PENALTY NEV Holding enforced 10 yards from the NEV47 to the NEV37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
81.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Broc Lane for 18 yds to the NEV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
81.7%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 7 yds to the NEV 12Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+5
81.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the NEV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
81.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the NEV 4Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.8%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
80.5%
Cooper Legas run for no gain to the NEV 4Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
80.5%
Elliott Nimrod 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8INT TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 3:0420% → 16%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
79.8%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+14
79.4%
AJ Bianco run for 14 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
79.1%
Jamaal Bell run for 20 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
78.4%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USU 27Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
-3
78.8%
AJ Bianco sacked by Blaine Spires for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 30Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 18
OPP 30
-63
84.0%
Seni Tuiaki 63 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Nimrod Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3115% → 14%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
BIANCO, AJ pass short to the left incomplete intended for CAMPBELL, Dalevon broken up by ANYANWU, Michael at the NEV30. PENALTY NEV Face mask on WORLD, Isaiah enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the NEV25 to the NEV13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+5
85.2%
AJ Bianco run for 5 yds to the NEV 18Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
85.3%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+12
85.7%
AJ Bianco run for 12 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
85.7%
Matt Freem punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4384% → 85%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
83.9%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 7 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+7
84.3%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 7 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.7%
Cooper Legas pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:2616% → 17%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
83.8%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
84.4%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+9
84.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the USU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
83.6%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the USU 21Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
83.6%
Jamaal Bell run for 1 yd to the USU 20Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
84.2%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
83.3%
Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2884% → 91%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
83.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 9 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.2%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 35Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
84.1%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 9 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
84.8%
Cooper Legas run for 9 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
90.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 47 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:4411% → 10%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.0%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.1%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 15 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
88.5%
AJ Bianco run for 7 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-12
87.7%
run for a loss of 12 yards to the NEV 35 fumbled, recovered by NEV Sean Dollars [NHSG] NEV rush up the middle for a loss of 12 yards, fumbled at NEV37 , recovered by NEV DOLLARS, Sean at the NEV35, returned 0 yards to the NEV35, End of Play.Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+4
89.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
89.8%
Matt Freem punt for 48 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the USU 39 Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Okerwa) to the USU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+19
91.2%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 19 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3811% → 10%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
89.3%
Sean Dollars run for 13 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
89.0%
Jamaal Bell run for 1 yd to the NEV 29Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
89.1%
BIANCO, AJ pass short to the left complete for 1 yard to DOLLARS, Sean caught at the NEV30 and advanced to the NEV30 (SLONE, Cian), out of bounds. PENALTY USU Offsides on MOTU'APUAKA, Hale enforced 5 yards from the NEV29 to the NEV34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
88.6%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 35Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-3
88.8%
AJ Bianco sacked by Paul Fitzgerald for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 32Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
89.9%
Matt Freem punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.4%
LEGAS, Cooper pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DAVIS, Micah broken up by COATS JR., Michael at the NEV42. PENALTY USU Holding on MAUI, Aloali'i NEV Pass Interference on COATS JR., Michael , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16FG
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:5190% → 93%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+46
90.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 46 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
90.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
90.9%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
90.6%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
93.4%
Elliott Nimrod 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:248% → 7%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.4%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 11 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.9%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.2%
AJ Bianco run for 1 yd to the NEV 37Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
92.3%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
92.9%
Matt Freem punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0194% → 94%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
94.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 13 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
94.6%
BRIGGS, Robert rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the USU49 (MATEIALONA, Tongiaki;TONEY JR., Richard). PENALTY USU Holding on LANE, Broc enforced 10 yards from the USU46 to the USU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 20
OWN 36
-3
94.2%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 33Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 23
OWN 33
0
94.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 23
OWN 33
+11
93.9%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 11 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
94.1%
Ryan Marks punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
92.9%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 41 fumbled, recovered by USU Michael Anyanwu [NHSG] NEV rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards, fumbled at USU41 , recovered by USU ANYANWU, Michael at the USU41, returned 0 yards to the USU41, End of Play, clock 06:57.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:5495% → 95%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
94.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 4 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
94.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
95.0%
LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left complete for 0 yards to ROYALS, Jalen caught at the NEV46 and advanced to the NEV46, out of bounds. PENALTY USU Chop Block on FAISON, Rahsul enforced 15 yards from the NEV46 to the USU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+6
94.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+5
94.7%
LEGAS, Cooper pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Micah broken up by COATS JR., Michael at the NEV17. PENALTY Before the snap, NEV Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USU45 to the USU50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 14
50
0
94.7%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 14
50
0
94.5%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Rahsul Faison for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 14
50
0
94.6%
Ryan Marks punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:595% → 5%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
94.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
94.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Matt Freem punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:2296% → 99%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+43
95.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 43 yds to the NEV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
95.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the NEV 10Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
95.6%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+8
95.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the NEV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:342% → 1%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Sean Dollars run for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the NEV 28Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.6%
Matt Freem punt for 35 yds , returns for no gain to the USU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
98.5%
Cooper Legas sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+6
98.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the USU 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
98.5%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
98.5%
Ryan Marks punt for 41 yds, downed at the NEV 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.6%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
98.6%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 5 yds to the NEV 41Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
98.6%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
98.8%
Matt Freem punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.8%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
98.7%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 8Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
98.7%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
98.7%
Ryan Marks punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:341% → 1%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.8%
Sean Dollars run for no gain to the NEV 45Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+38
98.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 38 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
98.6%
Utah State Penalty, Personal Foul (Seni Tuiaki) to the USU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
98.6%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the USU 6Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
98.6%
AJ Bianco sacked by Hale Motu'apuaka for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 10Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.8%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
99.0%
AJ Bianco sacked by Anthony Switzer for a loss of 7 yards to the USU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1699% → 99%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.9%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+10
98.9%
Nevada Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson LaDuke) to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 2:021% → 6%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
98.9%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 39Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+6
98.9%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Sean Dollars for 6 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+28
98.9%
AJ Bianco run for 28 yds to the USU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.5%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds for a TD (AJ Bianco pass to Sean Dollars for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:5497% → 99%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
97.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-10
97.1%
FAISON, Rahsul rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the NEV33 (SAVAGE, Caine;MALDONADO, Jonathan). PENALTY USU Holding on FRIAS, Ralph enforced 10 yards from the NEV35 to the NEV45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+11
97.0%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 11 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
97.0%
Cooper Legas run for 2 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.1%
Cooper Legas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
97.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 7 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
99.3%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 25 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 31TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:581% → 3%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.4%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 9 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+32
99.3%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 32 yds to the USU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.2%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.3%
AJ Bianco run for 11 yds to the USU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.2%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
99.2%
AJ Bianco run for 10 yds to the USU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 32END OF GAME
6 plays · 40 yds · 3:2998% → 99%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
98.2%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USU 25Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.1%
Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Thomas Witte) to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
98.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 17 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
98.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
98.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the NEV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 47 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q2 7:56
Seni Tuiaki 63 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Nimrod Kick)
+5.2
TD · Q4 7:21
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds for a TD (AJ Bianco pass to Sean Dollars for Two-Point Conversion)
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com