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UNLV

UNLV 56 at New Mexico 14

UNM
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:57 · Marshall Nichols punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hixon at the UNM 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense−51.6Score differential−30.8Pregame prior−9.1Garbage-time factor−12.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:44: Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +2.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:15: Andrew Henry run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +4.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:00: Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +5.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:56: Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +8.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:22: Courtney Reese run for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:36UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:39UNM 4th & 20 at UNM 39, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:57UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:37UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:45UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:28UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 17, down 35
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:32UNM 4th & 9 at UNLV 48, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:57UNLV 4th & 10 at UNM 41, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:51UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 5, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:31UNLV 4th & 1 at UNM 1, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:05UNM 4th & 6 at UNLV 15, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:15UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:44UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:15UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:00UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:56UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:22UNLV Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:41UNLV Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:17UNLV Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:31UNLV Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:05UNM Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2219% → 20%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
18.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 7 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
19.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the UNM 38Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+1
19.4%
Dylan Hopkins run for 1 yd to the UNM 39Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
19.7%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
19.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 30 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 7 yds · 4:3319% → 20%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
19.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 13 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
19.6%
Sherod White run for 3 yds to the UNM 41Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
19.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 3 yds to the UNM 44Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-5
19.9%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNM 39Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+10
19.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.4%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the UNM 49Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
20.4%
New Mexico Penalty, Personal Foul (D.J. Washington) to the UNM 38Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 21
OWN 38
+1
20.2%
Dylan Hopkins run for 1 yd to the UNM 39Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 20
OWN 39
0
20.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 20
OWN 39
-7
20.1%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNM 32 fumbled, recovered by UNLV Fred Thompkins (07:39) [NHPUNT] UNM fumbled snap, UNM rush up the middle for a loss of 7 yards, fumbled at UNM30 , recovered by NLV THOMPKINS, Fred at the UNM32, returned 0 yards to the UNM32, End of Play; UNM turnover on downs, clock 07:37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5080% → 82%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
19.7%
Jayden Maiava run for no gain to the UNM 32Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
19.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+21
19.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 21 yds to the UNM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
19.9%
Jayden Maiava run for 6 yds to the UNM 5Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
17.8%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2719% → 24%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
18.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 13 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
19.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 4 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
19.3%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 11 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
19.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
18.9%
Sherod White run for 2 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+9
18.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 9 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
19.3%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+15
18.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 15 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
18.9%
Sherod White run for 4 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+6
18.9%
Sherod White run for 6 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
18.9%
Devon Dampier run for 5 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.6%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1179% → 85%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Timothy Conerly for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
21.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
21.3%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
21.2%
(12:34) MAIAVA, Jayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WHITE, Ricky thrown to the UNM26, clock 12:30. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference Before the snap, NLV Illegal Formation , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
21.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 5 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
21.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
21.0%
UNLV Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jayden Maiava) to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
21.3%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNM 49Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+42
21.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 42 yds to the UNM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
20.5%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the UNM 5Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
15.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:4517% → 18%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
16.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 41 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
18.0%
Sherod White run for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
17.8%
(07:54) CROSKEY-MERRITT, Jacory rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the NLV27 (JOHNSON, Darius), clock 07:38. PENALTY NLV Offsides enforced 5 yards from the NLV32 to the NLV27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-6
17.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNM 5 Jacory Croskey-Merritt fumbled, recovered by UNLV Jett Elad (07:15) [NHSG] CROSKEY-MERRITT, Jacory rush to the left for a loss of 6 yards, CROSKEY-MERRITT, Jacory fumbled at NLV27 forced by DIXON, Jalen, recovered by NLV ELAD, Jett at the NLV33, returned 62 yards to the UNM5 (HOPKINS, Dylan;DIXON, Jalen), clock 07:02.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.9%
Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5112% → 12%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
11.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
11.7%
Sherod White run for 4 yds to the UNM 21Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
11.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
11.5%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:1991% → 95%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
8.6%
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. run for 19 yds to the UNM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
8.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNM 2Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.1%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:365% → 3%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
4.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 19Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
4.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 7 yds to the UNM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
3.9%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the UNM 27Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
3.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 3 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
3.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
3.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4695% → 96%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
4.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
4.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
4.4%
Marshall Nichols punt for 47 yds, downed at the UNM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 0:412% → 4%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+27
1.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 27 yds to the UNM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
1.6%
Dylan Hopkins run for 11 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
1.6%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNM 39Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
1.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+26
1.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 26 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+52
1.7%
Luke Drzewiecki 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.8%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1696% → 98%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
3.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
3.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
3.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 10 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
3.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+3
2.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
3.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the UNM 48Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
2.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNM 47Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-5
2.6%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+9
2.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 9 yds to the UNM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
1.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 43 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:022% → 1%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
1.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 2 yds to the UNM 11Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
1.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 4 yds to the UNM 15Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+2
1.6%
Sherod White run for 2 yds to the UNM 17Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
1.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
1.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 58 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:421% → 1%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 12 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
1.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 1 yd to the UNM 38Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
1.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 41Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+10
0.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 10 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
1.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Sherod White for 3 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
0.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 2 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+1
0.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 1 yd to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 4
OPP 43
-5
0.6%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Taurrian Stafford) to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
0.6%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:3099% → 99%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
1.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 8 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+5
0.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.8%
Jayden Maiava run for no gain to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
0.8%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 12 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
0.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 4 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+22
0.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 22 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.6%
Courtney Reese run for 5 yds to the UNM 36Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
0.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
0.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNM 36Similar
Q4 14:58
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-5
0.7%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNM 41Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
0.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hixon at the UNM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
0.4%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the UNM 13Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
0.3%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the UNM 16Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-11
0.3%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Fisher Camac for a loss of 11 yards to the UNM 5Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 15
OWN 5
0
0.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
0.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNM 4Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNM 2Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNM 1Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.4%
Cameron Friel run for 1 yd for a TD (Andre Meono KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:230% → 0%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 9 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.2%
(09:33) DAMPIER, Devon sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the UNM34 (SCOTT, Brennon), clock 09:26. PENALTY UNM Personal Foul on JAMES, CJ declined UNM Personal Foul on STAFFORD, Taurrian enforced 15 yards from the UNM39 to the UNM24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+19
0.2%
Devon Dampier run for 19 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+11
0.1%
Devon Dampier run for 11 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
0.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 13 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+10
0.1%
Andrew Henry run for 10 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
0.1%
Andrew Henry run for 6 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+1
0.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the UNLV 12Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-3
0.1%
Devon Dampier run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+8
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 8 yds to the UNLV 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
0.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the UNLV 6Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Jacory Croskey-Merritt for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 36 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
0.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 23 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
0.1%
Courtney Reese run for 5 yds to the UNM 48Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
0.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
0.1%
Courtney Reese run for 3 yds to the UNM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:56
Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q2 9:00
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
-5
TD · Q2 14:15
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com