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UNM

New Mexico 24 at Nevada 34

NEV
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:53 · Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingPregame prior
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense+24.9Score differential+7.5Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Time remaining+2.8Pregame prior+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:02: Richard Toney Jr. 43 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick) — NEV win probability +7.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:39: Jamaal Bell 9 Yd Run (Brendon Lewis Run for Two-Point Conversion) — NEV win probability +10.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:12: Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 59 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +12.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:58: Brandon Talton 22 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +8.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:35: Devon Dampier 1 Yd Run (Devon Dampier Run for Two-Point Conversion) — UNM win probability +6.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 9UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:28NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04UNM 4th & 23 at UNM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:28NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:18UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:47NEV 4th & 5 at UNM 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:28UNM 4th & 3 at NEV 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:50NEV 4th & 19 at UNM 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:06UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:57NEV 4th & 9 at UNM 34, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:53UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:51NEV 4th & 7 at UNM 44, up 24
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:28UNM 4th & 9 at NEV 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:57NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:58NEV 4th & 4 at UNM 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−7.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:58UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:23NEV 4th & 15 at UNM 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:53UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:53UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:02NEV Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:39NEV Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:12UNM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:01NEV Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:35UNM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3252% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
51.5%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 4 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-3
51.5%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 24 Brendon Lewis fumbled, recovered by NEV Brendon Lewis Lewis,Brendon rush middle for loss of 3 yards to the NEV24, fumble by Lewis,Brendon recovered by NEV Lewis,Brendon, Lewis,Brendon rush.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
51.5%
pass incomplete to John Jackson IIISimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
51.7%
Matt Freem punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2448% → 48%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
51.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 12 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
51.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
50
+2
51.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 2 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-15
51.6%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 15 yards to the UNM 37 Andrew Henry fumbled, recovered by UNM Andrew Henry Henry,Andrew rush right for loss of 15 yards to the UNM37, fumble by Henry,Andrew recovered by UNM Henry,Andrew, Henry,Andrew rush.Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 23
OWN 37
0
52.1%
pass incomplete to Caleb MedfordSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 23
OWN 37
+50
52.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 50 yds Nevada Penalty, off-side (Jonathan Maldonado) to the NEV 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 9:3652% → 52%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
52.1%
Jamaal Bell run for 4 yds to the NEV 17Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
52.1%
Badolato-Birdsell,Jacques rush middle (Kiehne,Tyler;Drake,Kyler).Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+3
51.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 3 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
52.4%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Jeremiah Hixon returns for no gain to the UNM 20 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, personal foul (Marquese Allen-Patmon) to the UNM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:4648% → 47%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.7%
pass incomplete to Jeremiah HixonSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
51.8%
pass incomplete to Trace BrucklerSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-1
52.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 47Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
52.6%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:3152% → 55%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
52.4%
Jamaal Bell run for 1 yd to the NEV 16Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
52.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 8 yds Brendon Lewis fumbled, recovered by NEV Lewis,Brendon right pass complete to Bell,Jamaal for 8 yards to the NEV24, fumble by Lewis,Brendon, out-of-bounds.Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
52.3%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 1 yd to the NEV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
52.5%
pass incomplete to Cameron ZeidlerSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+51
52.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 51 yds to the UNM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
53.4%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 2 yds to the UNM 19Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
53.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the UNM 12Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-4
53.1%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 16Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
54.6%
Brandon Talton 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1346% → 46%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
54.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 18 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.4%
pass incomplete to Andrew EricksonSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
53.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+2
53.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 2 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
54.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3856% → 57%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
56.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 14 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
56.2%
Jamaal Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNM 23Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 13
OPP 23
-6
55.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for a loss of 6 yards to the UNM 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 29
0
55.1%
pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 19
OPP 29
+47
57.3%
Brandon Talton 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4843% → 35%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
Henry,Andrew rush right (Walker-Burgess,Marcel).Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-43
64.6%
Richard Toney Jr. 43 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:5135% → 32%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Andrew Erickson for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 24Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
65.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the UNM 32Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
64.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.5%
pass incomplete to Caleb MedfordSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
64.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jacory Croskey-Merritt for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 34Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
65.2%
pass incomplete to D.J. WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
67.8%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:0970% → 76%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
70.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
71.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
71.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 6 yds to the UNM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
71.2%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 4 yds to the UNM 44Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
73.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
73.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the UNM 34Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
73.4%
pass incomplete to Cameron ZeidlerSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
72.9%
pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
75.7%
Brandon Talton 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:2427% → 27%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
72.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 24 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
71.8%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the UNM 47Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
73.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5079% → 89%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
78.5%
Jamaal Bell run for 7 yds to the UNM 17Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
78.4%
pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
77.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the UNM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
78.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 4 yds to the UNM 9Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
88.6%
Jamaal Bell 9 Yd Run (Brendon Lewis Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4613% → 12%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.6%
Devon Dampier run for 1 yd to the UNM 26Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
86.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 7 yds to the UNM 33Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
86.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 31Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.9%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:0290% → 90%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.7%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
89.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 25 yds to the UNM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.3%
pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
90.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the UNM 44Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
90.1%
pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
90.0%
Matt Freem punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
88.9%
Devon Dampier run for 7 yds to the UNM 16Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+19
88.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 19 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
88.2%
Devon Dampier run for 6 yds to the UNM 41Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
87.6%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Caleb Medford, broken up by Richard Toney Jr.Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+28
88.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Duece Jones for 28 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 6:4811% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.3%
New Mexico Penalty, delay of game (Dylan Hopkins) to the UNM 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
89.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 9 yds to the UNM 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
88.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 7 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
88.8%
Andrew Henry run for 17 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+6
88.8%
Dylan Hopkins run for 6 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
88.6%
pass incomplete to Caleb MedfordSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
88.8%
pass incomplete to Jeremiah HixonSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
91.4%
Luke Drzewiecki 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
93.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 16 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
92.7%
New Mexico Penalty, false start (CJ James) to the NEV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2493% → 94%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jayden O'Rourke for 12 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.8%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 7 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
92.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the NEV 45Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-1
92.7%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 44Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
93.5%
Matt Freem punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:457% → 19%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+25
93.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 25 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
81.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 59 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FG
14 plays · 81 yds · 7:1485% → 93%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
84.5%
Nevada Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 10Similar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+31
84.5%
Jamaal Bell run for 31 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
85.3%
Badolato-Birdsell,Jacques rush middle (Gainer,Destin).Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+28
85.2%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 28 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
85.4%
Jamaal Bell run for 9 yds to the UNM 22Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+15
85.4%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 15 yds to the UNM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
85.4%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 2 yds to the UNM 5Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
85.4%
for a 1ST down New Mexico Penalty, personal foul (Alec Marenco) to the UNM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
85.4%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNM 5Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
85.4%
Nevada Penalty, false start (Isaah Crocker) to the UNM 10Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
85.4%
AJ Bianco run for 8 yds to the UNM 2Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
84.9%
AJ Bianco run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 4Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
93.0%
Brandon Talton 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Hopkins,Dylan rush middle (Witte,Thomas;Hansen,James).Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Caleb Medford, broken up by Michael Coats Jr.Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+37
93.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 44 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for 37 yds to the UNM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5994% → 99%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
94.3%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 4 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
94.3%
pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.3%
Jamaal Bell run for 10 yds to the UNM 22 Nevada Penalty, illegal block (Isaiah World) to the UNM 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
94.2%
Nevada Penalty, delay of game (AJ Bianco) to the UNM 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+15
94.1%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Dalevon Campbell for a 1ST down New Mexico Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Marvin Covington) to the UNM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
94.3%
Jamaal Bell run for 13 yds to the UNM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
94.3%
Jamaal Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
94.3%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Dalevon Campbell for a 1ST down New Mexico Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Marvin Covington) to the UNM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:222% → 8%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
98.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 17 yds to the UNM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
98.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Caleb Medford for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaden Dedman) to the NEV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
98.3%
Nevada Penalty, delay of game (Jackson LaDuke) to the NEV 38Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+35
98.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 35 yds to the NEV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 2 yds to the NEV 1Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Devon Dampier 1 Yd Run (Devon Dampier Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass intercepted Nevada Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaden Dedman) to the NEV 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 5:1294% → 96%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
94.1%
Jamaal Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 26Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
93.9%
AJ Bianco run for 5 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+11
94.1%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 11 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
94.5%
Cross Patton run for 6 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
94.5%
Cross Patton run for 8 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.6%
Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the UNM 41Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-2
94.5%
Cross Patton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 43Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-6
94.3%
AJ Bianco sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UNM 49Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
96.0%
Matt Freem punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24TD
20 plays · 93 yds · 4:256% → 8%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
94.4%
pass incomplete to Caleb MedfordSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+11
94.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 11 yds to the UNM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
94.1%
pass incomplete to Jeremiah HixonSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
94.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the UNM 19Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+8
94.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 8 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+3
95.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Hopkins,Dylan rush middle (Watts,Drue).Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
95.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington Dylan Hopkins fumbled, recovered by NEV Richard Toney Jr. for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Michael Coats Jr.) to the UNM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
94.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Caleb Medford New Mexico Penalty, Offensive holding (D.J. Washington) to the UNM 35Similar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
95.4%
pass incomplete to D.J. WashingtonSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
95.4%
pass incomplete to D.J. WashingtonSimilar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+12
95.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the UNM 47Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
95.1%
Nevada Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ryan Davis) to the UNM 47Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+13
95.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 13 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
94.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Caleb Medford for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, personal foul (Marcel Walker-Burgess) to the NEV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to D.J. Washington, broken up by Michael Coats Jr.Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
94.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 8 yds to the NEV 17Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+15
94.3%
Andrew Henry run for 15 yds to the NEV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to D.J. WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25Uncategorized
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0496% → 96%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
95.7%
AJ Bianco run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 42Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+6
95.3%
AJ Bianco run for a loss of 9 yards to the NEV 33 for a 1ST down New Mexico Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (D.J. Washington) to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
95.8%
AJ Bianco run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:12
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 59 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 3:39
Jamaal Bell 9 Yd Run (Brendon Lewis Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.1
FG · Q3 0:58
Brandon Talton 22 yd FG GOOD
+8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com