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AF

Air Force 30 at Colorado State 13

CSU
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:50 · Paddy Turner punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior−10.1Home team on offense−6.8Score differential−2.8Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:38: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 61 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:00: John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore PAT MISSED) — AF win probability +5.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:45: Jordan Noyes 49 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CSU down 3 timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 8:58: Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +10.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:51: Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +9.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:47CSU 4th & 1 at AF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:47AF 4th & 1 at CSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:56CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46AF 4th & 8 at AF 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:59AF 4th & 4 at AF 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:15CSU 4th & 7 at AF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:43AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:45CSU 4th & 8 at AF 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:50CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:03AF 4th & 11 at CSU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:38CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:54AF 4th & 5 at AF 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:51CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 36, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:04CSU 4th & 3 at AF 15, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:03AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:38CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:00AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:58AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:51AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:0825% → 26%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 5
OWN 15
+3
24.6%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 18Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+10
24.6%
Vann Schield run for 10 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
24.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
24.6%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
24.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
24.6%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
26.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for no gain to the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 6:4474% → 75%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
25.9%
Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
25.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
25.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the CSU 35Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
25.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the CSU 34Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
25.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
26.0%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
25.8%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
25.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
25.8%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
25.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
25.8%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the CSU 9Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
25.4%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:0226% → 27%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
26.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 8 yds to the CSU 16Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
26.3%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the CSU 17Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
26.0%
Louis Brown IV run for 2 yds to the CSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
26.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
26.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 4 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
26.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 1 yd to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
26.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 4 yds to the CSU 37Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
26.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
26.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1074% → 73%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
26.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 12
+6
26.8%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
27.1%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
27.5%
Carson Bay punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
33.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 61 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:3968% → 67%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
31.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
32.0%
Zac Larrier run for 9 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
31.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
31.4%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
33.5%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 6 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
33.1%
Carson Bay punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:4434% → 40%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
34.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 14 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
34.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
35.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+8
34.4%
Vann Schield run for 8 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
35.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 9 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+14
36.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 14 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
36.4%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
36.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 9 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
36.8%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
39.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
38.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
40.2%
Jordan Noyes 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3262% → 59%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
37.7%
Zac Larrier run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.2%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
41.2%
Carson Bay punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:1241% → 41%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
40.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-13
40.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the CSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:3165% → 70%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
35.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the CSU 9Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-1
35.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 10Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
29.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:1532% → 39%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.4%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
32.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 14 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
34.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+17
35.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 17 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
36.3%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
36.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
32.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
38.6%
Jordan Noyes 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4564% → 66%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
36.1%
Aiden Calvert run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
35.1%
Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-1
34.2%
Zac Larrier sacked by Grady Kelly and James Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0263% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
35.6%
Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
34.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+4
34.4%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+12
34.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 12 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
33.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
33.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+14
34.5%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 14 yds to the CSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
33.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
33.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the CSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.9%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0827% → 29%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
27.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
29.4%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
29.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 2 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
30.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
28.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:4774% → 80%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
25.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
26.0%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+53
26.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 53 yds to the CSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
22.6%
Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Holding (4 Yards) to the CSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
22.0%
KINAMON, Dane rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the CSU0, TOUCHDOWN AFA, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:14 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY AFA Holding on ELDRIDGE III, John Lee enforced 10 yards from the CSU9 to the CSU19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
-1
22.0%
Zac Larrier run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 20Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+6
22.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the CSU 14Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
23.0%
Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds to the CSU 11Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
19.6%
Matthew Dapore 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2521% → 19%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
19.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
18.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 48 yds, downed at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4481% → 80%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
19.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+12
18.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 12 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
17.4%
Dane Kinamon run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
17.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
17.7%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
19.7%
Carson Bay punt for 41 yds, downed at the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0319% → 16%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
19.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 7 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 3
OWN 17
-5
19.4%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 12Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
19.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 6 yds to the CSU 18Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+15
18.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 15 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
20.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 6 yards to the CSU 27Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 16
OWN 27
0
19.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+9
18.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 9 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
15.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 2:0086% → 97%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
13.7%
QB Keeper LARRIER, Zac rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the CSU34 (WILSON, Chase;BLACKBURN, Henry). PENALTY CSU Face mask on WILSON, Chase enforced 15 yards from the CSU34 to the CSU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
13.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 11 yds to the CSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
13.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the CSU 5Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:475% → 4%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.0%
Vann Schield run for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
5.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
5.1%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
5.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 14 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
5.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 15 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
6.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
6.2%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
6.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 6 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
6.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
6.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 7 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
6.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
3.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 20 yds · 5:0497% → 99%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
2.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
2.6%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
2.7%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
2.6%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
1.1%
Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.1%
Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at AFA39 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at AFA37 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
1.0%
Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at AFA35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:58
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-10.5
TD · Q4 8:51
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 4:00
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore PAT MISSED)
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com