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NEV

Nevada 6 at San Diego State 0

SDSU
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:33 · Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the NEV 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+31.9Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:52: Timeout San Diego State, clock 12:52 — NEV win probability +6.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:52: Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 5 yds to the SDSU 34 — NEV win probability +7.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:16: Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 36 — SDSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:42: Timeout Nevada, clock 02:42 — NEV win probability +12.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:12: Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 1 yd to the NEV 41 — NEV win probability +23.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:33SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:03NEV 4th & 9 at SDSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:47SDSU 4th & 3 at NEV 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:45NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:31SDSU 4th & 8 at NEV 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:14NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:18SDSU 4th & 27 at SDSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:03NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:29SDSU 4th & 6 at NEV 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:29SDSU 4th & 6 at NEV 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:42NEV 4th & 22 at NEV 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:50SDSU 4th & 2 at NEV 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:08NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:36SDSU 4th & 3 at NEV 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−2.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:49NEV 4th & 20 at SDSU 38, up 6
    Close callPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:23SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 14, down 6
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:34NEV 4th & 12 at SDSU 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−3.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:09SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:16NEV 4th & 1 at SDSU 30, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%−5.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−8.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:42SDSU 4th & 3 at NEV 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−6.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−13.6
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2783% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.6%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Cameron HarpoleSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
82.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
82.2%
Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the NEV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 6:3018% → 20%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
82.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 6 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
82.1%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
82.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 7 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
82.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
50
+5
82.1%
Jamaal Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+13
82.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 13 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
82.1%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the SDSU 27Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-5
82.1%
PENALTY NEV False Start 5 yards from SDSU27 to SDSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
82.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
82.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 6 yds to the SDSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
82.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
82.1%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the SDSU 21Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
82.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
79.7%
Brandon Talton 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:1380% → 78%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
79.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+11
79.6%
Cam Davis run for 11 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
79.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+19
79.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 19 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for no gain to the NEV 47Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
80.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
80.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Joshua NicholsonSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
78.2%
Jack Browning punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0222% → 22%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
78.1%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 3Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
78.1%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 5Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+2
78.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 2 yds to the NEV 7Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+1
77.7%
Matt Freem punt for 52 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for 1 yd to the SDSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:1478% → 75%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
77.6%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+12
77.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 12 yds to the NEV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
77.7%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the NEV 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
77.7%
Shotgun Sutton,Lucky rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NEV35 (Witte,Thomas) PENALTY NEV Offside (Dedman,Jaden) 5 yards from NEV38 to NEV33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
78.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 14 yds to the NEV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
78.1%
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the NEV 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+4
78.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 4 yds to the NEV 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
77.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Joshua NicholsonSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
75.4%
Jack Browning 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1726% → 26%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
74.3%
Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
73.8%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 2 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
74.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
74.4%
Matt Freem punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NEV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -17 yds · 1:5674% → 72%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 25
OWN 36
-6
74.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Mackavelli Malotumau for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSU 30Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 31
OWN 30
+4
74.0%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 27
OWN 34
0
73.3%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Joshua NicholsonSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 27
OWN 34
+3
71.5%
Jack Browning punt for 58 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for 3 yds to the NEV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1528% → 27%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
72.5%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 10Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
72.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jacques Badolato-BirdsellSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 11
OWN 10
-5
73.3%
PENALTY NEV Illegal Snap (Madrigal,Andrew) 5 yards from NEV10 to NEV05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 16
OWN 5
-2
73.5%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Welch,Zac) 2 yards from NEV05 to NEV03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 18
OWN 3
+6
73.5%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 9Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 12
OWN 9
0
72.6%
Matt Freem punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Shaw at the NEV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3473% → 72%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.3%
Jalen Mayden run for 3 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+6
72.0%
Martin Blake run for 6 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
73.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
72.1%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
72.1%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:4730% → 30%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
70.5%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 16Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
70.4%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
70.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the NEV 23Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
70.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-8
71.1%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Dominic Oliver for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 15Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 17
OWN 15
-5
71.9%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Rodahaffer,Cade) 5 yards from NEV15 to NEV10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 22
OWN 10
+4
70.3%
Matt Freem punt for 38 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for 4 yds to the NEV 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5272% → 70%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
72.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
72.2%
Cam Davis run for no gain to the NEV 37Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
71.8%
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the NEV 36Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+1
69.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the NEV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:1134% → 37%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
66.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+16
64.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 16 yds to the SDSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
63.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
63.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
62.6%
Sean Dollars run for 10 yds to the SDSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4841% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
59.8%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 5 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Matt Freem punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:3264% → 59%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
64.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the SDSU 49Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+10
63.9%
Kenan Christon run for 10 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
64.7%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the NEV 39Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
64.7%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
64.4%
Cam Davis run for no gain to the NEV 34Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
59.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:4746% → 50%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
54.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the NEV 37Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
53.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jacques Badolato-Birdsell for 8 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
52.5%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 4 yds to the NEV 49Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
52.2%
Jamaal Bell run for 10 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
51.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 13 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
51.2%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Welch,Zac) 5 yards from SDSU28 to SDSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+5
51.5%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 5 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
51.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-10
52.4%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Dezjhon Malone for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSU 38Similar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 20
OPP 38
0
50.3%
Matt Freem punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2652% → 48%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
51.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSU 11Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
52.2%
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the SDSU 14Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
50.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Martin BlakeSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
48.0%
Jack Browning punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4957% → 58%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
50
+11
42.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
42.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
42.9%
Jamaal Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
43.0%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 3 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
42.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
42.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
43.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
42.4%
Brandon Talton 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2549% → 46%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
48.9%
Lucky Sutton run for 5 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
50.9%
Lucky Sutton run for 8 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
50.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the SDSU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
50.5%
Lucky Sutton run for 3 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
50.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
46.0%
Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the NEV 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:5360% → 72%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
40.5%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 3 yds to the NEV 10Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+3
40.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 3 yds to the NEV 13Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
41.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
34.9%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 2 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-8
35.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Zyrus Fiaseu for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 22Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 16
OWN 22
-5
38.5%
PENALTY NEV Delay Of Game 5 yards from NEV22 to NEV17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 21
OWN 17
+44
38.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 44 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
31.3%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 5 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-10
30.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bell,Jamaal rush right for 7 yards gain to the SDSU27, out of bounds at SDSU27 PENALTY NEV Holding (Capra,Joey) 10 yards from SDSU34 to SDSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+5
32.8%
Jamaal Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+9
32.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cameron Zeidler for 9 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-27
33.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass complete deep left to Campbell,Dalevon for 27 yards to the SDSU03 (Tumblin,Noah) PENALTY NEV Illegal Motion offsetting SDSU Offside offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+48
27.8%
Brandon Talton 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FUMBLE
12 plays · 45 yds · 7:0436% → 30%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
35.7%
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 36Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
38.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
38.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 9 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
40.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
41.3%
Lucky Sutton run for 13 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
41.7%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+7
40.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+2
41.6%
Lucky Sutton run for 2 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+5
29.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
36.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 1 yd to the NEV 23Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
30.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the NEV 25 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by NEV Jonathan MaldonadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:1294% → 96%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
6.2%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 1 yd to the NEV 41Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
6.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the SDSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
5.0%
B. Lewis takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
50
-1
4.4%
B. Lewis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:12
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 1 yd to the NEV 41
-23.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:42
Timeout Nevada, clock 02:42
-12.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:16
Lucky Sutton run for 6 yds to the SDSU 36
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com