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CSU

Colorado State 23 at UNLV 25

UNLV
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:13 · Paddy Turner punt for 40 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+5.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 7:36: Jose Pizano 34 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +16.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 3:49: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 20 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +33.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 1:27: Jose Pizano 46 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +28.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:44: Jordan Noyes 55 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +37.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:03: Jose Pizano 28 yd FG GOOD Colorado State Penalty, substitution infraction (Kobe Johnson) to the CSU 10 — UNLV win probability +37.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 9CSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:34CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:02CSU 4th & 11 at UNLV 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:13CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15UNLV 4th & 4 at CSU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:10CSU 4th & 4 at UNLV 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:39CSU 4th & 11 at UNLV 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:36UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:53CSU 4th & 8 at UNLV 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−6.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:10UNLV 4th & 10 at CSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:06CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:05UNLV 4th & 7 at CSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−13.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:16CSU 4th & 4 at UNLV 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−3.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 1 at CSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−3.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−14.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:36UNLV 4th & 4 at CSU 16, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%−0.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−17.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:27UNLV 4th & 3 at CSU 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−10.2
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−28.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:44CSU 4th & 4 at UNLV 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−6.2
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−17.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:58CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:06UNLV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:49CSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2643% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
57.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 3 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
57.4%
Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
57.4%
pass incomplete to Dylan GoffneySimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
57.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2Uncategorized
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
57.6%
Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
57.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 8 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
57.7%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
57.7%
Donavyn Lester run for 7 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
57.7%
Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
57.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 11 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
57.8%
pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-6
57.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the CSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:4243% → 42%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
57.3%
Vann Schield run for 9 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
57.1%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
57.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 2 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
57.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-8
57.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
57.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:4858% → 58%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
57.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+26
57.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 26 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
58.3%
Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
57.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
57.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0143% → 42%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.5%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
57.3%
pass incomplete to Vann SchieldSimilar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-3
57.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 22Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+12
58.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 40 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:5859% → 60%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
50
+8
59.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-1
59.1%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 43Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
58.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
59.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Donavyn Lester for 7 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+3
59.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
59.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
59.4%
Donavyn Lester run for 4 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
59.5%
Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
59.6%
Jose Pizano 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 6:3140% → 45%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.7%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
59.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
58.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
50
0
57.9%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
50
+2
58.1%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+11
59.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.9%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
57.9%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
58.1%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
57.2%
Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.2%
Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
57.2%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the UNLV 14Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+3
58.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 3 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 6
OPP 11
-5
59.0%
Colorado State Penalty, false start (Matt Thomas) to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
55.3%
Jordan Noyes 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0759% → 58%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
58.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
58.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
58.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKie, broken up by Ron Hardge IIISimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+16
57.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 52 yds , Tory Horton returns for 16 yds to the CSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:2945% → 58%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+52
55.2%
Vann Schield run for 52 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
52.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 3 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
52.1%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
53.0%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
52.1%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
52.1%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) UNLV Penalty, off-side (Ricky Johnson) to the UNLV 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2246% → 44%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
45.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 7 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
46.9%
Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
45.3%
pass incomplete to Christian EarlsSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
43.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 50 yds , Tory Horton returns for no gain to the CSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:4357% → 61%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
42.6%
Avery Morrow run for 8 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+4
41.2%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
41.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 11 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
40.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 11 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
40.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 34 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
39.6%
pass incomplete to Dylan GoffneySimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
39.6%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
38.6%
Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
38.6%
Jordan Noyes 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:4339% → 40%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
38.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+18
38.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 18 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
40.6%
Jayden Maiava sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+16
38.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 16 yds to the CSU 43Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+39
40.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 39 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13FG
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:5039% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
39.1%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+7
39.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 7 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
40.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-1
40.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+8
40.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 8 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
40.7%
Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
40.5%
Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+13
39.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 13 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.0%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Tyrell GraysonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
41.9%
pass incomplete to Kaleo BallungaySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
40.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Dom JonesSimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
41.5%
Jose Pizano 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5861% → 60%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
39.3%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 15Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-5
39.8%
Colorado State Penalty, Offensive holding (Louis Brown IV) to the CSU 10Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 16
OWN 10
0
39.8%
pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+10
40.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 10 yds to the CSU 20Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+28
40.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 34 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 28 yds to the CSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:0146% → 48%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
45.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
45.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 1 yd to the CSU 23Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+13
43.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds to the CSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
45.7%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Kaleo Ballungay) to the CSU 15Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
45.5%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Alani Makihele) to the CSU 20Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+4
45.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 4 yds to the CSU 16Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+9
44.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 9 yds to the CSU 7Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by TJ CrandallSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
48.4%
Jose Pizano 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:4055% → 58%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+23
44.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 23 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.8%
Tory Horton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1547% → 70%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
47.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
50.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+14
49.0%
Donavyn Lester run for 14 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
51.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Vincent Davis Jr. for 27 yds to the CSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
53.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the CSU 11Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
69.6%
Donavyn Lester run for 11 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5035% → 37%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.4%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
65.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 8 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
63.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Dylan Goffney for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jett Elad) to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
60.4%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
60.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
61.0%
pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
62.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19FG
19 plays · 78 yds · 7:4065% → 85%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
64.5%
Colorado State Penalty, off-side (Marshon Oxley) to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 11
-2
65.2%
Donavyn Lester run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+24
64.2%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 24 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
65.8%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
65.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 8 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
68.1%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 13 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
69.5%
pass incomplete to Donavyn LesterSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
69.1%
pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
67.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 11 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
70.5%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+6
69.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
68.9%
Colorado State Penalty, delay of game (Kobe Johnson) to the CSU 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
68.9%
Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
66.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the CSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
70.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the CSU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-10
70.5%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (Amani Trigg-Wright) to the CSU 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+14
68.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 14 yds to the CSU 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
68.9%
Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
85.4%
Jose Pizano 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4224% → 65%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.3%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 26Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
76.4%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 24Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+35
78.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 35 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
71.1%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+15
71.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justus Ross-Simmons for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive pass interference (BJ Harris) to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
68.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
68.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+20
35.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 20 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:1749% → 83%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
49.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 9 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-5
53.0%
UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Jack Hasz) to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
49.3%
Jayden Maiava run for 6 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
50.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 29 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
57.7%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
58.5%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
54.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
82.5%
Jose Pizano 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:4331% → 77%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
69.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 20 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
63.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
60.2%
pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
61.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 6 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
60.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tory Horton, broken up by Johnathan BaldwinSimilar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+55
23.0%
Jordan Noyes 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:3743% → 93%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
42.6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
46.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 4 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
42.4%
Donavyn Lester run for 6 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
45.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 21 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
54.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 20 yds to the CSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
92.7%
Jose Pizano 28 yd FG GOOD Colorado State Penalty, substitution infraction (Kobe Johnson) to the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:03
Jose Pizano 28 yd FG GOOD Colorado State Penalty, substitution infraction (Kobe Johnson) to the CSU 10
+37.9
FG · Q4 0:44
Jordan Noyes 55 yd FG GOOD
-37.5
TD · Q4 3:49
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 20 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-33.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com