Try the model
SJSU

San José State 52 at New Mexico 24

UNM
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:12 · Aaron Rodriguez punt for 51 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense−4.7Pregame prior−10.0Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:23: Kairee Robinson run for 35 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Jacory Croskey-Merritt 4 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick) — UNM win probability +13.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:41: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 55 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:39: Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 54 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:05: Kairee Robinson run for 19 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:14UNM 4th & 17 at SJSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:06UNM 4th & 5 at SJSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42SJSU 4th & 13 at UNM 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:20UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:31UNM 4th & 1 at SJSU 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−8.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:40UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:34SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:12UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:18UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:16SJSU 4th & 10 at UNM 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:13UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:03UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:32SJSU 4th & 3 at UNM 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:33UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 46, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q2 14:20SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:31UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:23SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:31UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:41SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:39SJSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:05SJSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:03SJSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:05SJSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:25UNM Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:4427% → 29%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.9%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 2 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
27.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 16 yds to the UNM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
27.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 4 yds to the UNM 47Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+18
28.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 18 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
28.5%
Sherod White run for 3 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
28.8%
San José State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SJSU 27Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
29.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for no gain to the SJSU 27Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-5
29.3%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Taurrian Stafford) to the SJSU 32Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-5
29.4%
New Mexico Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the SJSU 37Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
29.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-5
29.1%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Taurrian Stafford) to the SJSU 42Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
29.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 28 yds, fair catch by DJ Harvey at the SJSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5371% → 70%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
29.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 16 yds to the SJSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
29.4%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSU 24Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+1
29.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSU 25Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
30.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
30.5%
Alex Weir punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:5930% → 33%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
30.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+41
30.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 41 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
31.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the SJSU 27Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
31.7%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 4 yds to the SJSU 23Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-5
31.8%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SJSU 28Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+5
32.0%
Dylan Hopkins run for 5 yds to the SJSU 23Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
32.8%
Luke Drzewiecki 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:1767% → 64%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+44
32.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 44 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
32.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 36 yds San José State Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Nash) to the UNM 34Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 8
OPP 34
0
31.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
32.1%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
32.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 7 yds to the UNM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
32.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 14 yds to the UNM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
32.7%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 8Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
32.9%
San José State Penalty, Illegal Snap on PARDUE, Anthony enforced (-5 Yards) to the UNM 13Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
33.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
34.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
35.7%
Kyler Halvorsen 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1436% → 32%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
35.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for no gain to the UNM 28Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-2
35.6%
Dylan Hopkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 26Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
31.5%
Justin Stearns 7 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:4732% → 45%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.3%
Dylan Hopkins run for 5 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
32.9%
(13:41) CROSKEY-MERRITT, Jacory rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the UNM36 (JENKINS, Tre), clock 13:37. PENALTY UNM Holding on JAMES, CJ enforced 10 yards from the UNM30 to the UNM20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
32.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+19
31.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 19 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
33.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 19 yds to the SJSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
35.2%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Jay Kakiva and Noah Lavulo for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 44Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+1
34.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Sherod White for 1 yd to the SJSU 43Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+12
34.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 12 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
37.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 4 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
37.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Kaydin Pope for 5 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+8
36.2%
Sherod White run for 8 yds to the SJSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
36.9%
Dylan Hopkins run for 1 yd to the SJSU 13Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
37.1%
Devon Dampier run for 6 yds to the SJSU 7Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
44.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 7 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0858% → 68%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the SJSU 25Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
42.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 26 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
40.3%
(05:14) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the UNM6; QB hurried by SANTANA, Bryce, clock 05:11. PENALTY UNM Holding on POLA-GATES, Noa enforced 10 yards from the UNM49 to the UNM39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
40.3%
Isaac Jernagin run for 4 yds to the UNM 35Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
39.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+35
32.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 35 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:4236% → 48%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
35.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for no gain to the UNM 29Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
35.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Wyatt McClour for 18 yds to the UNM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
38.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
38.7%
Sherod White run for 1 yd to the SJSU 44Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
37.9%
Dylan Hopkins run for 1 yd to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
38.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Kade Zimmerman for 30 yds to the SJSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
40.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jacob Godfrey for 6 yds to the SJSU 7Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
40.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+8
38.5%
Dylan Hopkins run for 8 yds to the SJSU 4Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-5
38.5%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Caleb Medford) to the SJSU 12Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
47.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 4 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:2152% → 55%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
48.3%
(00:19) [NH] Kneel down by SJS at SJS6 (team loss of 7), clock 00:09.Similar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
45.4%
(14:58) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Matthew thrown to the UNM47, clock 14:54. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on POLA-GATES, Noa enforced 15 yards to the SJS45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
31.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 55 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5835% → 32%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
35.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
33.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
33.1%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNM 23Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
33.0%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
32.1%
(13:39) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass up the middle complete for 28 yards to JERNAGIN, Isaac caught at the UNM47 and advanced to the UNM34, End of Play, clock 13:28. PENALTY SJS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NAVARRO, Jaime enforced 5 yards from the SJS38 to the SJS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3066% → 66%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-2
33.7%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 31Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+15
34.2%
(12:28) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for NASH, Nick broken up by MORRIS, Zach at the UNM20, clock 12:22. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on MORRIS, Zach enforced 15 yards to the SJS46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
31.9%
San José State Penalty, False Start (Marist Talavou) to the SJSU 41Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+8
33.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 8 yds to the SJSU 49Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
31.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
32.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
34.4%
Alex Weir punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0835% → 34%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
35.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 13Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-5
34.9%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (DJ Wingfield) to the UNM 8Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+4
34.7%
Devon Dampier run for 4 yds to the UNM 12Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+3
34.0%
Dylan Hopkins run for 3 yds to the UNM 15Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
33.6%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:2266% → 80%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
33.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSU 38Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
33.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+54
19.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 54 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2021% → 19%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
19.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4581% → 87%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
18.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 18 yds to the UNM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
18.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the UNM 17Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
18.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
18.4%
Chevan Cordeiro run for no gain to the UNM 17Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 5
OPP 17
-5
20.1%
San José State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNM 22Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
12.8%
Kyler Halvorsen 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 11%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
13.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
11.0%
San José State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the UNM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5589% → 97%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
11.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+19
11.4%
Quali Conley run for 19 yds to the UNM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
3.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 19 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:515% → 4%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.8%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
4.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the UNM 29Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
4.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 3 yds to the UNM 32Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
4.2%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 2:0297% → 99%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
2.9%
Quali Conley run for 8 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+13
2.8%
Quali Conley run for 13 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+61
2.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 61 yds to the UNM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 13 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
0.6%
Dylan Hopkins run for no gain to the UNM 38Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Sherod White for 2 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
0.5%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 5:4899% → 100%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-10
0.6%
San José State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Nash) to the SJSU 10Similar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 7
OWN 10
+2
0.5%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the SJSU 12Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+68
0.5%
Quali Conley run for 68 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
0.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the UNM 14Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+1
0.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the UNM 13Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
0.3%
Quali Conley run for no gain to the UNM 13Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+5
0.2%
Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the UNM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
0.2%
Jabari Bates run for 5 yds to the UNM 3Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Quali Conley run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:380% → 0%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 13 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
0.1%
Devon Dampier run for 8 yds to the UNM 46Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-4
0.1%
Christian Washington run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 42Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-5
0.1%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (CJ James) to the UNM 37Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+9
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 9 yds to the UNM 46Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+5
0.1%
Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-15
0.1%
New Mexico Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Caleb Medford) to the UNM 45Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+21
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to D.J. Washington for 21 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 11 yds to the SJSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
0.1%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the SJSU 21Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
0.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to D.J. Washington for 21 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
0.1%
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds to the SJSU 19Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
0.1%
(00:37) [NHSG] Kneel down by SJS at SJS16 (team loss of 3), clock 00:31.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:41
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 55 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q3 7:39
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 54 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 0:31
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 4 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
+13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com