Try the model
SDSU

San Diego State 10 at Air Force 49

AF
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:18 · Jack Browning punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Home team on offense+17.1Pregame prior+9.2Score differential+6.3Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:34: Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:31: Cade Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +7.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:21: Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +6.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:43: Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +8.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:04: Zac Larrier pass complete to Cade Harris for 54 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +10.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:55SDSU 4th & 14 at SDSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06AF 4th & 18 at SDSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:02SDSU 4th & 2 at AF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00SDSU 4th & 1 at AF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34AF 4th & 4 at SDSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:25SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:52SDSU 4th & 13 at SDSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20SDSU 4th & 3 at AF 46, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%
    23% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:18SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 33, down 18
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:05SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 31, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 2 at SDSU 23, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:44SDSU 4th & 1 at AF 28, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:34SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:31AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:21AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:43AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:04AF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:18AF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:09AF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:45AF Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0529% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
71.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 21 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
71.5%
Shotgun Christon,Kenan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDS48 (Boyd,CJ; Mock,Alec) PENALTY SDS Holding (Jones,Christian) 10 yards from SDS46 to SDS36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+11
71.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 11 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+2
71.5%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-7
71.5%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 42Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
71.1%
Jack Browning punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:4971% → 70%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
71.0%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+6
71.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
71.1%
Zac Larrier run for 41 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
71.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+2
71.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+4
71.1%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
70.0%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 9:3230% → 40%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
70.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for 9 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
69.8%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
70.2%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
70.0%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 35Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
70.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
69.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 6 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
69.8%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 8 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
69.7%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+2
68.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
68.2%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
68.1%
Kenan Christon run for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
68.3%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
67.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
66.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 11 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
66.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
60.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0363% → 71%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+34
63.0%
Zac Larrier run for 34 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
64.5%
Aiden Calvert run for 2 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
65.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
64.4%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+28
63.6%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Cade Harris for 28 yds to the SDSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
64.1%
Burk,Owen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:38 PENALTY AF False Start (Carlan,Mason) 5 yards from SDS02 to SDS07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.1%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0133% → 32%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.4%
Martin Blake run for no gain to the SDSU 14Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
67.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
68.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin BrooksSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
68.2%
Jack Browning punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 5:0470% → 78%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
70.3%
Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
70.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+10
70.3%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 10 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
70.6%
Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+8
71.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the SDSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
71.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SDSU 21Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+18
71.2%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 18 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SDSU 2Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:2924% → 22%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.7%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Penny,Brionne) 5 yards from SDS25 to SDS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
77.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 16 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
76.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
77.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
77.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Phillippe Wesley IISimilar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
78.2%
Jack Browning punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0977% → 87%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
76.7%
Zac Larrier run for 11 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
77.0%
Zac Larrier run for 15 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
78.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+19
78.4%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Samuela Tuihalamaka) to the SDSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
78.8%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 26 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 31 yds · 0:4316% → 18%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Joshua NicholsonSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
84.3%
Kenan Christon run for 22 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
83.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 7 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
82.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
82.5%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark RedmanSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+7
83.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
82.3%
PENALTY SDS False Start (Azzopardi,Drew) 5 yards from AF 39 to AF 44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+61
81.8%
Jack Browning 61 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5682% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
81.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
81.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
82.3%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
81.6%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
92.4%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Cade Harris for 54 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4611% → 9%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.0%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 26Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
89.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 7 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
88.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Leo KempSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
90.7%
Jack Browning punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 3:0093% → 98%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
92.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+5
92.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
92.7%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
92.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 14 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.0%
Kendin Alexander run for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+53
98.3%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 53 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-30
98.8%
Trey Taylor 30 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
98.6%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 29Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
98.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 2 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Jack Browning punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 10:2099% → 100%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+7
99.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
99.4%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
99.5%
Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
99.5%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.7%
Owen Burk run for 9 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+10
99.7%
Dylan Carson run for 10 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.7%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
99.7%
Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the SDSU 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+3
99.7%
Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the SDSU 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+10
99.7%
Dylan Carson run for 10 yds to the SDSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.7%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SDSU 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
99.7%
PENALTY SDS Offside (Tuihalamaka,Samuela) 4 yards from SDS08 to SDS04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
99.7%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the SDSU 4Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Jensen Jones run for 4 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 57 yds · 7:550% → 0%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.9%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 19Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSU 21Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jaylon Armstead for 6 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 4 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Martin Blake run for 3 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Martin Blake run for 1 yd to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
99.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 17 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
B. Brittain takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-2
99.9%
C. Turner takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-2
100.0%
J. Busha takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:04
Zac Larrier pass complete to Cade Harris for 54 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q2 0:43
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 10:31
Cade Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com