Try the model
UTU

Utah Tech 20 at Colorado State 41

CSU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUTU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:28 · Paddy Turner punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Pregame prior+12.1Home team on offense+3.8Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:42: Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Brooksby KICK) — UTU win probability +5.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q2 12:15: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK) — CSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:44: Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Brooksby KICK) — UTU win probability +6.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:58: Vann Schield run for 2 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff PAT MISSED) — CSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:18: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 42 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK) — CSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 5:22UTU 4th & 8 at UTU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:32UTU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.4%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:06UTU 4th & 5 at CSU 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−5.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:56CSU 4th & 1 at UTU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−2.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−6.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:05UTU 4th & 1 at UTU 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:28CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 31, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:28UTU 4th & 7 at CSU 35, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:13UTU 4th & 6 at UTU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:52UTU 4th & 10 at UTU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:01UTU 4th & 4 at UTU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:21UTU 4th & 8 at CSU 47, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:45CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:42UTU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:15CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:44UTU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:58CSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:18CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:59CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 4:0776% → 77%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
76.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 14Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+9
76.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 9 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+6
76.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
76.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 12 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
76.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 5 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+11
76.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the UTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
75.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 22 yds to the UTU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
77.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 21 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 2INT
8 plays · 59 yds · 4:0924% → 24%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
76.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 26 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
76.2%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+15
76.3%
(09:30) TRACY, Kobe pass to the right complete for -5 yards to SPARKS, Beau caught at the CSU49 and advanced to the UTU48 (HECTOR, Ayden;KAMARA, Mohamed), clock 09:22. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on HECTOR, Ayden enforced 15 yards from the CSU47 to the CSU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
76.1%
Chris Street run for 7 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
75.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
76.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 4 yds to the CSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
75.8%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Rickie Johnson for 3 yds to the CSU 16Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
75.7%
Kobe Tracy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
79.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 76 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5321% → 20%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the UTU 27Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
79.4%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
79.6%
Andrew Day punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3880% → 81%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 13 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:2821% → 22%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
79.4%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTU 46Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
79.2%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
79.3%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 1
50
+10
79.7%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 10 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
79.6%
Chris Street run for 28 yds to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
78.9%
Chris Street run for 4 yds to the CSU 8Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
79.0%
Chris Street run for 4 yds to the CSU 4Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-3
79.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 7Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
77.6%
Connor Brooksby 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2179% → 79%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
78.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
78.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds to the CSU 33 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by UTU Dondi FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 8TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
73.3%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Brooksby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2775% → 81%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.6%
Vann Schield run for 11 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
75.0%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
75.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+5
75.6%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the UTU 45Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+41
75.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 41 yds to the UTU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:3120% → 28%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
79.6%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Rickie Johnson for 11 yds to the UTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
79.3%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTU 35Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+9
78.6%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Rickie Johnson for 9 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
78.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 4 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+18
78.3%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 18 yds to the CSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
77.8%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 1 yd to the CSU 17Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
77.8%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Michael Moten for 5 yds to the CSU 12Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+7
78.3%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Rickie Johnson for 7 yds to the CSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
77.8%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 8Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
77.8%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
79.6%
TRACY, Kobe pass up the middle incomplete intended for SPARKS, Beau thrown to the UTU45. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on HECTOR, Ayden enforced 10 yards to the UTU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
78.9%
Chris Street run for 2 yds to the UTU 47Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
78.7%
Chris Street run for 4 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
72.2%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Brooksby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:4074% → 75%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.3%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+18
75.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 18 yds to the UTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
76.0%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the UTU 39Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+8
76.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 8 yds to the UTU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
76.6%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HORTON, Tory thrown to the UTU0. PENALTY UTU Pass Interference on SHERIDAN, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the UTU16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
76.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
76.5%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Andrew Cannon) to the UTU 21Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+11
76.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the UTU 10Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
75.8%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the UTU 7Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
74.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for no gain to the UTU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 35 yds · 1:5625% → 26%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
74.9%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
75.0%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 6 yds to the UTU 13Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+9
75.2%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Rickie Johnson for 9 yds to the UTU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
73.8%
Kobe Tracy sacked by Mohamed Kamara and Cam Bariteau for a loss of 7 yards to the UTU 15Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+9
74.1%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds to the UTU 24Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+12
74.5%
Kobe Tracy run for 12 yds to the UTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
72.7%
Kobe Tracy sacked by Grady Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the UTU 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+8
73.7%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 8 yds to the UTU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5528% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.6%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
72.9%
Utah Tech Penalty, False Start (Stryker Rashid) to the UTU 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
73.6%
Chris Street run for 10 yds to the UTU 34Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
72.5%
Andrew Day punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3773% → 71%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
72.7%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
72.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+5
71.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 5 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
71.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 4:0028% → 32%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
71.9%
Chris Street run for 2 yds to the UTU 23Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+17
72.0%
Chris Street run for 17 yds to the UTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
70.2%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Rickie Johnson for 22 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for no gain to the CSU 38Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
68.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for no gain to the CSU 38Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
69.8%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 3 yds to the CSU 35Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
67.8%
Connor Brooksby 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:1070% → 72%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.7%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Dallin Holker) to the CSU 20Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
69.4%
Vann Schield run for no gain to the CSU 20Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+54
69.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 54 yds to the UTU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
73.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 4 yds to the UTU 22Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
73.9%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the UTU 19Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
72.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0531% → 29%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
69.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTU 5Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+6
69.4%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 6 yds to the UTU 11Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 11
-3
70.4%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTU 8Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
71.1%
Andrew Day punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:1572% → 87%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
72.4%
Vann Schield run for 6 yds to the UTU 34Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
73.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 4 yds to the UTU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
73.3%
Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the UTU 29Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
73.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+27
71.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 27 yds to the UTU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.3%
Vann Schield run for no gain to the UTU 2Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.7%
Vann Schield run for 2 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0620% → 17%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.8%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Rickie Johnson for 5 yds to the UTU 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
79.3%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Jaivian Lofton for 15 yds to the UTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
78.1%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
78.8%
Chris Street run for no gain to the UTU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
79.6%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
83.5%
Andrew Day punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:3486% → 95%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
85.6%
Vann Schield run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 9Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+34
85.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 34 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
87.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 5 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
87.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the UTU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
87.6%
Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the UTU 42Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+42
95.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 42 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:178% → 3%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.3%
Nygel Osborne run for 4 yds to the UTU 29Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
94.6%
Kobe Tracy sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 4 yards to the UTU 25Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.0%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Damani Wilks for 6 yds to the UTU 31Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
96.6%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Andrew Cannon) to the UTU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0297% → 99%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+16
96.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 16 yds to the UTU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
96.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 7 yds to the UTU 13Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
96.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 5 yds to the UTU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
96.6%
Damian Henderson II run for 2 yds to the UTU 6Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Daniel Thomason for 5 yds to the UTU 30Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.1%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 3 yds to the UTU 33Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
99.1%
Colorado State Penalty, Personal Foul (Chigozie Anusiem) to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
99.1%
TRACY, Kobe pass short up the middle complete for 5 yards to THOMASON, Daniel caught at the CSU44 and advanced to the CSU44 (WILSON, Chase). PENALTY UTU Holding on HYDE, Ty enforced 10 yards from the CSU49 to the UTU41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+12
99.1%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Nygel Osborne for 12 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
99.1%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Kobe Tracy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+7
99.5%
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the CSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.5%
Damian Henderson II run for 11 yds to the UTU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
99.5%
Damian Henderson II run for 11 yds to the UTU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Jackson Brousseau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.5%
Damian Henderson II run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTU 40Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-3
99.4%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 12 yds to the UTU 28 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
99.5%
Damian Henderson II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTU 44Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+6
99.5%
Damian Henderson II run for 6 yds to the UTU 38Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
99.4%
Damian Henderson II run for 4 yds to the UTU 34Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+15
99.4%
SCHIELD, Vann rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the UTU35 (HAMBLIN, Brevin;LEOTA, Will). PENALTY UTU Face mask on HAMBLIN, Brevin enforced 15 yards from the UTU34 to the UTU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.7%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the UTU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:58
Vann Schield run for 2 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff PAT MISSED)
+13.5
TD · Q4 11:18
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 42 yds for a TD (Ashton Wolff KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 4:44
Kobe Tracy pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Brooksby KICK)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com