Try the model
AF

Air Force 45 at San José State 20

SJSU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2023 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 6 yds to the SJSU 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.1Pregame prior−8.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:24: Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:25: Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK) — AF win probability +10.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:18: John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK) — AF win probability +15.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK) — AF win probability +12.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:51: John Lee Eldridge III run for 34 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK) — AF win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 3:02AF 4th & 3 at SJSU 13, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−3.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:48SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 4 at SJSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:53AF 4th & 5 at AF 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 5:34SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 12:50AF 4th & 1 at SJSU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−5.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−21.0
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:02SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:51AF 4th & 4 at SJSU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:09SJSU 4th & 10 at AF 12, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:43SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:53AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:57SJSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:24SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:25AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:18AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:50AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:51AF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:20AF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1738% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jabari Bates for 2 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
38.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
38.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+8
39.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 8 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
39.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jabari Bates for 4 yds to the SJSU 49Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
39.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 8 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
40.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 33 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
41.7%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 7:4159% → 57%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
40.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 14 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
40.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
41.1%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
41.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
41.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
42.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+6
42.4%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the SJSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
42.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+13
42.5%
Aiden Calvert run for 13 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
42.8%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 18Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
43.1%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the SJSU 18Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+5
44.1%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the SJSU 13Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
43.4%
Reagan Tubbs 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0844% → 44%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
43.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 7 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-5
44.5%
(02:27) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass short to the right complete for 21 yards to ROSS, Charles caught at the SJS40 and advanced to the AFA42 (BELLAMY, Jamari), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, SJS Illegal Formation on PARDUE, Anthony enforced 5 yards from the SJS37 to the SJS32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
43.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 4 yds fumbled, forced by Alec Mock, recovered by SJSU Skylar Loving-BlackSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-1
43.9%
Chevan Cordeiro run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 35Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
43.7%
Alex Weir punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:5556% → 61%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
44.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
50
+8
43.4%
Zac Larrier run for 8 yds to the SJSU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
43.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
43.5%
Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dane Kinamon) to the SJSU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+6
44.5%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 6 yds to the SJSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
42.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the SJSU 17Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 19
OPP 45
+6
44.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SJSU 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+6
43.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+3
43.6%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the SJSU 30Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+17
38.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 17 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:5243% → 51%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
42.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 6 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
43.3%
Jabari Bates run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
43.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 10 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
43.6%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
43.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 8 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
50.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 29 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0452% → 49%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.3%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
50.0%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
50.8%
Luke Freer punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:2951% → 64%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
50.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 16 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
52.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 33 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
53.2%
Air Force Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Jerome Gaillard Jr.) to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
53.9%
Quali Conley run for 7 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:5939% → 49%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
60.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
60.4%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+11
61.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 11 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
60.0%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
59.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 38Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
61.7%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
60.9%
(01:07) LARRIER, Zac scrambles to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the SJS30 (LAVULO, Noah;LIKIO, Quincy). PENALTY AFA Holding on ELDRIDGE III, John Lee enforced 10 yards from the SJS34 to the SJS44 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+22
61.2%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 22 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+11
65.3%
Aiden Calvert run for 11 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
61.9%
Zac Larrier run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 13Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+9
62.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the SJSU 4Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
51.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0452% → 52%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
52.3%
(00:25) ROBINSON, Kairee rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the SJS37 (MOCK, Alec;GOODWIN, Jayden). PENALTY SJS Holding on PARDUE, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the SJS28 to the SJS18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 20
OWN 18
0
51.7%
(00:21) Kneel down by CORDEIRO, Chevan at SJS17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 8:4248% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
51.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
52.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
50.1%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
50.1%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
50.1%
Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the SJSU 44Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
50.6%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
50.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 35Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
49.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 31Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
50.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SJSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
49.6%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+14
49.7%
Dylan Carson run for 14 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
49.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 7Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
50.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SJSU 5Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
34.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5040% → 38%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
39.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 8 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
38.9%
Alex Weir punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 29Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
37.7%
San José State Penalty, Offsides (Bryun Parham) to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 7:3864% → 83%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+4
36.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
35.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
33.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
32.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 15 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
31.7%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+14
29.4%
Aiden Calvert run for 14 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
29.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the SJSU 13Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
29.1%
Aiden Calvert run for 4 yds to the SJSU 9Similar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
30.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SJSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
28.5%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the SJSU 5Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
28.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 2Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
29.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SJSU 1Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:4118% → 14%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
17.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 7 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+9
17.6%
Kairee Robinson run for 9 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
17.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 6 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
18.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
17.0%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the SJSU 40Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
13.9%
Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the SJSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 2:0588% → 97%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
12.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
11.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-1
11.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 34Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+34
3.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 34 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:294% → 3%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
4.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
4.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 1 yd to the SJSU 9Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+31
3.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 31 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
4.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 5 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
4.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 6 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
4.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
4.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5698% → 100%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
2.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 20Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
1.9%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the SJSU 19Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+14
1.5%
Dylan Carson run for 14 yds to the SJSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
1.3%
Jet Harris run for 3 yds to the SJSU 2Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Jet Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 17 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the SJSU 35Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 6 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 1 yd to the SJSU 42Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+29
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 29 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 9 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+8
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 8 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
0.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
0.1%
(00:05) Kneel down by JONES, Jensen at AFA10 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:18
John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q4 12:50
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 0:25
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com