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UND

North Dakota 18 at Boise State 42

BOIS
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUND aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:50 · Luke Silvernale punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+32.7Score differential+23.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.4Garbage-time factor+8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:15: A. Jeanty run for 2 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:30: T. Green pass to E. McAlister for 28 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:36: Wesley Eliodor 6 Yd pass from Tommy Schuster (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UND win probability +7.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:26: Luke Skokna 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UND win probability +5.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:48: Ashton Jeanty 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +8.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UND made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:28BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32UND 4th & 1 at UND 21, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57UND 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:56BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:57UND 4th & 5 at UND 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:51UND 4th & 9 at UND 13, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:52UND 4th & 13 at UND 22, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:28UND 4th & 7 at BOIS 28, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:42BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:17UND 4th & 12 at UND 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:15UND 4th & 18 at UND 46, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:50UND 4th & 5 at UND 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UND made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 5:47BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57UND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:15BOIS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28BOIS Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:30BOIS Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:36UND Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:26UND Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:48BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:43BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2584% → 84%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
84.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 13 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
84.2%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 39Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
84.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
84.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
83.8%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 49 yds , returns for no gain to the UND 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5616% → 17%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
83.8%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 5 yds to the UND 17Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
83.8%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 1 yd to the UND 18Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+3
83.4%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 3 yds to the UND 21Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
83.4%
Luke Silvernale punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:4583% → 84%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
83.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jambres Dubar for 6 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-1
83.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 34Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+7
83.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Chase Penry for 7 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+14
83.4%
Taylen Green run for 14 yds to the UND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
83.6%
Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 38Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+17
83.6%
Chase Penry pass complete to Riley Smith for 17 yds to the UND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
83.7%
Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 14Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
83.7%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+4
83.6%
run for 4 yds to the UND 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
83.7%
run for 2 yds to the UND 8Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.3%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 4TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:4517% → 21%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
83.5%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the UND 25Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-4
83.4%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Demitri Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the UND 21Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+12
83.7%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 12 yds to the UND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
83.3%
Tommy Schuster run for 7 yds to the UND 40Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
83.0%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 5 yds to the UND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+41
83.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 41 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
82.6%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 10 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.6%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the BOIS 2Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.4%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.9%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 1 yd to the BOIS 1Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.4%
Quincy Vaughn 1 Yd Run (Brady Stevens PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5680% → 79%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
80.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+3
79.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 3 yds to the BOIS 10Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
79.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
79.0%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5921% → 21%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
78.8%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 1 yd to the UND 40Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
79.0%
Luke Skokna run for 4 yds to the UND 44Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
77.9%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
78.9%
Luke Silvernale punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chase Penry at the BOIS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:4279% → 86%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
78.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 20Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
78.8%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+4
78.4%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
79.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 24Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+34
78.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 34 yds to the UND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
80.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the UND 40Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+26
80.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Prince Strachan for 26 yds to the UND 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
80.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the UND 10Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
80.6%
run for 1 yd to the UND 9Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+7
80.1%
GREEN, Taylen pass to the left incomplete intended for MCALISTER, Eric broken up by SIEGEL, CJ at the UND2. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on SIEGEL, CJ enforced 7 yards to the UND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
80.6%
Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the UND 2Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.1%
A. Jeanty run for 2 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:4317% → 20%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.3%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 8 yds to the UND 33Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
82.3%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the UND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
82.9%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 7 yds to the UND 42Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
82.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nick Kupfer for 2 yds to the UND 44Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
82.1%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the UND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
82.1%
Tommy Schuster run for 3 yds to the UND 49Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+15
81.9%
Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BOIS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
80.7%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-14
79.8%
Tommy Schuster sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the UND 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:0488% → 90%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
88.3%
Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the UND 45Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
88.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 8 yds to the UND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
88.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 21 yds to the UND 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
87.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
88.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 8 yds to the UND 8Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+7
85.7%
Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the UND 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.1%
A. Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:2811% → 11%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.0%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 3 yds to the UND 28Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.6%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
89.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 9 yds to the UND 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.5%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
88.7%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Ahmed Hassanein and Braxton Fely for a loss of 10 yards to the UND 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4911% → 11%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
89.1%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 3 yds to the UND 23Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-7
89.2%
Gaven Ziebarth run for a loss of 7 yards to the UND 14 Gaven Ziebarth fumbled, recovered by BOIS Braxton FelySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
90.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 2 yds Ashton Jeanty fumbled, recovered by UND Wyatt PedigoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0411% → 10%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
89.3%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 1 yd to the UND 13Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
89.4%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
89.6%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+39
89.8%
Luke Silvernale punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the UND 37 , returns for no gain to the UND 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:2191% → 97%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
90.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jambres Dubar for 2 yds to the UND 35Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+7
90.9%
Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 28Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+28
96.5%
T. Green pass to E. McAlister for 28 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:384% → 4%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.9%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 5 yds to the UND 30Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
95.7%
Tommy Schuster run for a loss of 8 yards to the UND 22 Tommy Schuster fumbled, recovered by UND Tommy SchusterSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
96.0%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
96.5%
Luke Silvernale punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BOIS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Taylen Green pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 17TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:074% → 11%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.2%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
96.2%
Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (Zion Washington) to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
95.8%
Luke Skokna run for 6 yds to the BOIS 10Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+4
95.8%
Luke Skokna run for 4 yds to the BOIS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.8%
Wesley Eliodor 6 Yd pass from Tommy Schuster (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the BOIS 31 Ashton Jeanty fumbled, recovered by UND Wyatt PedigoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 19TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 3:0212% → 18%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
88.0%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
88.3%
Luke Skokna run for 5 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-2
88.4%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 28Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+19
89.3%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Wright for 19 yds to the BOIS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
87.7%
Luke Skokna run for 6 yds to the BOIS 3Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.8%
Luke Skokna 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4486% → 85%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.7%
Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
86.0%
Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+21
85.6%
Taylen Green run for 21 yds to the UND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
87.4%
Stefan Cobbs run for a loss of 8 yards to the BOIS 46Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
86.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 18
OWN 46
0
85.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 18
OWN 46
0
85.1%
James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2514% → 11%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.8%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 4 yds to the UND 24Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
85.2%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-6
86.6%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Ty Benefield for a loss of 6 yards to the UND 18Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
88.9%
Luke Silvernale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BOIS 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:1289% → 97%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
88.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jambres Dubar for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
88.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+20
87.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 20 yds to the UND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-12
89.0%
Taylen Green sacked by Malachi McNeal for a loss of 12 yards to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 49
+1
88.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Kaden Dudley for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
50
+13
87.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the UND 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+15
87.3%
DALMAS, Jonah field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at UND44], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UND Roughing the Kicker on OCANSEY, Edmund enforced 15 yards from the UND37 to the UND22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
89.0%
Jambres Dubar run for 13 yds to the UND 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
89.0%
Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.0%
run for 1 yd to the UND 1Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Ashton Jeanty 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 21 yds · 5:334% → 2%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.4%
Gaven Ziebarth run for 5 yds to the UND 30Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
96.1%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 4 yds to the UND 34Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
96.2%
Boise State Penalty, Offsides (Michael Callahan) to the UND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
96.1%
Luke Skokna run for 7 yds to the UND 46Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
96.1%
Luke Skokna run for 1 yd to the UND 47Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
96.2%
Luke Skokna run for 7 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
96.1%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 7 yards to the UND 47Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 17
OWN 47
-9
96.4%
Tommy Schuster sacked by Zion Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the UND 38Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 26
OWN 38
+8
97.7%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Wright for 8 yds to the UND 46Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 18
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.6%
Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the UND 41Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
99.7%
Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the UND 38Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+6
99.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the UND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
99.7%
Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the UND 27Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
M. Madsen pass to E. McAlister for 27 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNDDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Donavan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UND 30Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Trey Feeney pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Trey Feeney pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Luke Silvernale punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Kaden Dudley run for 7 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-4
99.9%
Kaden Dudley run for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 40Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+24
99.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 24 yds to the UND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Kneel down by MADSEN, Maddux at UND39 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:48
Ashton Jeanty 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)
+8.2
TD · Q3 7:36
Wesley Eliodor 6 Yd pass from Tommy Schuster (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-7
TD · Q3 4:26
Luke Skokna 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com