Try the model
USU

Utah State 21 at Air Force 39

AF
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2023 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jalen Johnson run for 3 yds to the USU 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:11: Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +7.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:15: John Lee Eldridge III run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +4.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:58: McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +5.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:10: McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 9 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +3.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:10: Timeout Air Force, clock 05:10 — AF win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:01USU 4th & 10 at USU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:11USU 4th & 6 at USU 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:26USU 4th & 6 at USU 42, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:36AF 4th & 1 at AF 20, up 29
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:07AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:00USU 4th & 3 at AF 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:35USU 4th & 16 at AF 30, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:45AF 4th & 7 at AF 36, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:43USU 4th & 2 at AF 6, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:00AF 4th & 3 at USU 14, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:04AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:17AF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:11AF Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:15AF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:58USU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:45AF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:10USU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:43USU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5929% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Terrell VaughnSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the USU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Terrell VaughnSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
15 plays · 63 yds · 6:5771% → 74%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
71.4%
Owen Burk run for 9 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
71.4%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
71.4%
Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
71.5%
Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
71.5%
Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+7
71.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
71.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 21Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
71.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the USU 20Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
71.5%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 7 yds to the USU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
71.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 10Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
71.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the USU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (E. Michel Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.5%
PENALTY USU Offside (Barthiel,Gavin) 2 yards from USU03 to USU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.5%
PENALTY USU Offside (Larsen,Ike). NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:3127% → 27%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.0%
Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the USU 20Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-9
73.2%
Cooper Legas sacked by Alec Mock for a loss of 9 yards to the USU 11 Cooper Legas fumbled, recovered by AFA Bo Richter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1674% → 77%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
73.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
73.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the USU 4Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
76.6%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0625% → 24%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
75.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 10 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.1%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Colby BowmanSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
75.2%
Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
75.1%
Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Jalen RoyalsSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
75.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 4:0077% → 86%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
76.5%
Zac Larrier run for 8 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+9
76.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+49
77.0%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 49 yds to the USU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
77.3%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the USU 9Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+6
77.3%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the USU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
78.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the USU 2Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:5715% → 16%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
84.6%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 23 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
83.9%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 23 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
84.3%
Cooper Legas pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:4887% → 92%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
86.9%
Owen Burk run for 24 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
87.4%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 28 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
87.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 17Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
87.4%
Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the USU 13Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
92.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:457% → 5%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
92.6%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Jalen RoyalsSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+20
92.6%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 20 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.3%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
92.2%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-10
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hillstead,McCae rush left for 0 yards to the USU43 (Richter,Bo) PENALTY USU Holding (Motes,Cole) 10 yards from USU43 to USU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+9
92.6%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 9 yds to the USU 42Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
95.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5092% → 95%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
91.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
91.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+2
91.4%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
95.2%
Luke Freer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:384% → 8%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
96.4%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+15
96.1%
Air Force Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
96.1%
McCae Hillstead run for 18 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
95.9%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+7
95.8%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
96.3%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
96.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Davon Booth for 9 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.0%
Levi Williams run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
94.8%
Shotgun Vaughn,Terrell rush left for 3 yards loss to the AF 04 (Taylor,Trey) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Taylor,Trey), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Levi Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.2%
Levi Williams pass incomplete to Terrell VaughnSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 1:5894% → 97%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
94.3%
Zac Larrier run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
94.6%
Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
94.7%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
94.8%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
94.9%
Zac Larrier sacked by Cole Joyce for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 17
50
+10
94.7%
Zac Larrier run for 10 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
95.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+49
96.7%
Matthew Dapore 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
12 plays · 46 yds · 6:1496% → 99%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
96.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+8
96.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
96.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
96.0%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the USU 23Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
95.9%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
96.0%
Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the USU 13Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
96.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
96.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the USU 2Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the USU 2Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:281% → 5%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
98.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 9 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
98.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.6%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Alec Mock for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 49Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+5
98.8%
McCae Hillstead run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+24
98.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 24 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
98.4%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 11 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.4%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell VaughnSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
98.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
94.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 9 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0399% → 99%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
98.7%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
98.7%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Luke Freer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16DOWNS
17 plays · 55 yds · 4:324% → 2%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
96.5%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell VaughnSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
96.6%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 12 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.4%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Otto TiaSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
96.4%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell VaughnSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
96.6%
Air Force Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Alec Mock) to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
96.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-7
96.3%
McCae Hillstead sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+10
96.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hillstead,McCae pass incomplete short right to Lane,Broc PENALTY AF Holding (Collins,Corey) 10 yards from AF 45 to AF 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.2%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Jalen RoyalsSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
96.2%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 7 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
96.3%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell VaughnSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+4
97.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
96.9%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-6
96.9%
McCae Hillstead sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 14
OPP 28
0
97.4%
Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+12
97.7%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 12 yds to the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+9
99.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-10
99.7%
Calvert,Aiden rush left for 39 yards gain to the USU21 (Migao,Enoka) PENALTY AF Holding (Karas,Adam) 10 yards from AF 40 to AF 30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+6
99.6%
Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+11
99.6%
Luke Freer punt for 40 yds , Micah Davis returns for 11 yds to the USU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:021% → 4%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
98.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 12 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
98.7%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 8 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+31
98.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 31 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
98.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
98.7%
McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Colby BowmanSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+6
98.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Colby Bowman for 6 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
96.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 6 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
15 plays · 59 yds · 8:43100% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.6%
Owen Burk run for 25 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wyatt Wilson) to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
99.6%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
99.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+6
99.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the USU 26Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
99.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+1
99.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the USU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+3
99.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+1
99.7%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the USU 14Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+3
99.7%
Jalen Johnson run for 3 yds to the USU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:11
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 1:58
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
-5.4
TD · Q2 11:15
John Lee Eldridge III run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com