2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scorePRST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by SVOBODA, Evan at WYO8 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:50: Dante Chachere run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Smith KICK) — PRST win probability +2.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:52: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 29 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:42: John Hoyland 56 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +1.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:55: Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 14 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:03: Dante Chachere pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Smith KICK) — PRST win probability +4.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PRST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 4:19PRST 4th & 6 at PRST 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 10:34PRST 4th & 3 at WYO 12, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.2%50% to convertField goal6.0%−0.286% to makePunt4.3%−1.8average punt
- Q2 7:19WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.2%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%average punt
- Q2 1:42PRST 4th & 17 at PRST 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q2 0:16PRST 4th & 5 at WYO 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.341% to convertField goalTheir call6.6%60% to makePunt5.7%−1.0average punt
- Q3 12:36PRST 4th & 6 at WYO 49, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q3 6:42WYO 4th & 18 at PRST 39, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snapGo for it91.1%−0.713% to convertField goalTheir call91.7%−0.136% to makePunt91.8%average punt
- Q3 5:16PRST 4th & 7 at PRST 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q3 0:00PRST 4th & 20 at PRST 32, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q4 12:21WYO 4th & 22 at WYO 4, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q4 3:05WYO 4th & 22 at WYO 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q4 0:27PRST 4th & 9 at WYO 9, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%−0.225% to convertField goal3.4%89% to makePunt1.8%−1.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PRST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 8:03WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:51WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:50PRST Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.2%97% to makeGo for two8.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:52WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:55WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:03PRST Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two3.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1FUMBLE6 plays · 53 yds · 3:3296% → 96%
PRSTDrive 2INT3 plays · 11 yds · 1:104% → 5%
WYODrive 3TD6 plays · 34 yds · 2:1596% → 96%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
95.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ryan Marquez for 19 yds to the PRST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:445% → 5%
WYODrive 5TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:2895% → 96%
PRSTDrive 6TD19 plays · 75 yds · 9:014% → 8%
Q1 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
95.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 11 yds to the PRST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+14
95.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 14 yds to the WYO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+11
95.1%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 11 yds to the WYO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3193% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 14 yds · 0:598% → 8%
WYODrive 9TD3 plays · 49 yds · 1:2894% → 95%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
95.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 29 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 3:105% → 5%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.0%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Darien Chase for 11 yds to the PRST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
94.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 5 yds to the PRST 41Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
94.6%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 3 yds to the PRST 44Similar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
94.6%
CHACHERE, Dante pass to the right incomplete thrown to the WYO48; QB hurried by GODBOUT, Cole. PENALTY PSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the WYO48 to the PSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+14
95.0%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Darien Chase for 14 yds to the WYO 44Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-11
94.3%
Dante Chachere sacked by Braden Siders and Cole Godbout for a loss of 11 yards to the PRST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11INT7 plays · 47 yds · 0:5395% → 96%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
96.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 13 yds to the PRST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 12FG5 plays · 17 yds · 0:336% → 7%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
94.1%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 12 yds to the WYO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:247% → 7%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
92.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 11 yds to the PRST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15FG11 plays · 41 yds · 5:5493% → 95%
Q3 12:36
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+15
92.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 15 yds to the WYO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
93.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 9 yds to the PRST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
93.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 13 yds to the PRST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-7
93.3%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Spencer Elliott and Jaymason Willingham for a loss of 7 yards to the PRST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:266% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:2195% → 99%
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+17
95.1%
Jamari Ferrell run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
50
+8
95.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 8 yds to the PRST 42Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
98.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 14 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:551% → 1%
WYODrive 19PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 2:3999% → 99%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
98.9%
WIELAND, Wyatt rush to the right for a gain of 33 yards to the PSU48 (GOODMAN, Duhron), out of bounds. PENALTY WYO Personal Foul enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the WYO19 to the WYO10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 20TD11 plays · 54 yds · 5:181% → 6%
Q4 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
99.1%
Dante Chachere sacked by Jordan Bertagnole for a loss of 2 yards to the PRST 49Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+10
99.1%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 10 yds to the WYO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+14
99.1%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 14 yds to the WYO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
98.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 3 yds to the WYO 23Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
94.2%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT11 plays · -1 yds · 3:5697% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 22DOWNS14 plays · 82 yds · 2:382% → 2%
Q4 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+19
97.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 19 yds to the PRST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+3
97.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 3 yds to the PRST 37Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+11
97.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 11 yds to the PRST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
97.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 7 yds to the WYO 45Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+40
97.6%
Jermaine Braddock pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 40 yds to the WYO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
98.1%
CHACHERE, Dante pass short to the right complete for 10 yards to CRAIG, Quincy caught at the WYO5 and advanced to the WYO0, TOUCHDOWN PSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:06 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY PSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the WYO10 to the WYO15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
98.3%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 6 yds to the WYO 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:03
Dante Chachere pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Smith KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q3 1:55
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 14 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 8:50
Dante Chachere run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Smith KICK)
-2.5