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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadBRY aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreBRY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:29 · Jose Pizano 37 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:49: Jai'Den Thomas 18 Yd Run (Andre Meono Kick) — UNLV win probability +2.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- FG · Q1 1:06: Jose Pizano 48 Yd Field Goal — UNLV win probability +1.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:00: Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 29 yds to the BRY 36 for a 1ST down — UNLV win probability +0.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Doug Brumfield 19 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick) — UNLV win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:29: Jose Pizano 37 Yd Field Goal — UNLV win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BRY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:27BRY 4th & 1 at BRY 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:22BRY 4th & 5 at UNLV 35, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.9%42% to convertField goalTheir call12.7%−0.245% to makePunt12.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:00BRY 4th & 1 at BRY 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.3%−0.9average punt
- Q1 1:06UNLV 4th & 18 at BRY 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snapGo for it86.9%−0.913% to convertField goalTheir call87.7%54% to makePunt87.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:31BRY 4th & 7 at BRY 48, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 10:11UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 26, up 17Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.8%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:03BRY 4th & 1 at UNLV 1, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.7%59% to convertField goal7.8%−1.994% to makePunt3.3%−6.4average punt
- Q2 1:22BRY 4th & 7 at UNLV 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.2%37% to convertField goal8.9%−0.334% to makePunt8.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 12:21BRY 4th & 5 at UNLV 39, down 23Close callPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.2%42% to convertField goal3.9%−0.336% to makePuntTheir call3.9%−0.3average punt
- Q3 7:29UNLV 4th & 3 at BRY 19, up 23Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%−0.177% to makePunt95.4%−1.5average punt
- Q3 2:16BRY 4th & 9 at BRY 22, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 6:39UNLV 4th & 8 at BRY 18, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%79% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:49BRY 4th & 5 at BRY 33, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BRY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 14:40UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:49UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00UNLV Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:40BRY Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1TD2 plays · 69 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 2DOWNS7 plays · 26 yds · 11:2714% → 16%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
84.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Anthony Frederick for 8 yds to the BRY 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+9
84.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jalen Powell for 9 yds to the BRY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+4
84.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 4 yds to the BRY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD7 plays · 41 yds · 8:4987% → 89%
BRYDrive 4MISSED FG13 plays · 48 yds · 3:2213% → 13%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+15
87.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 15 yds to the BRY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
87.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Matthew Prochaska for 5 yds to the BRY 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
87.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Anthony Frederick for 11 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
87.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Simi Bakare for 3 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
87.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass incomplete to Matthew Prochaska, broken up by Johnathan BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5FG9 plays · -29 yds · 3:2288% → 90%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
88.4%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 6 yds to the BRY 30Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+7
88.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Landon Rogers for 7 yds to the BRY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 20
OPP 33
+2
88.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 2 yds to the BRY 31Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
89.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 29 yds to the BRY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 3:2911% → 10%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
89.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 7 yds to the BRY 30Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
89.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 5 yds to the BRY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
89.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 1 yd to the BRY 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0591% → 91%
BRYDrive 8DOWNS11 plays · 61 yds · 6:0110% → 10%
Q2 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
89.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 5 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9INT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4092% → 92%
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
92.0%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Dontae LunanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 10DOWNS4 plays · -20 yds · 0:4510% → 9%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
90.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass incomplete to Anthony Frederick, broken up by Jerrae WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
90.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jihad Edmond for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
90.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass incomplete to Landon Ruggieri, broken up by Thomas AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11TD7 plays · 37 yds · 1:2293% → 96%
Q2 0:24
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+9
92.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Senika McKie for 9 yds to the BRY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 52 yds · 2:344% → 4%
Q3 13:11
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+9
95.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 9 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13Uncategorized1 play · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 14INT2 plays · 23 yds · 0:204% → 4%
UNLVDrive 15FG7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3097% → 99%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
97.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds to the BRY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 16TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:381% → 1%
UNLVDrive 17TD2 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:160% → 0%
UNLVDrive 19TD3 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
BRYDrive 20TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:200% → 0%
UNLVDrive 21FG16 plays · 60 yds · 6:39100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+9
100.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 9 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
100.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Timothy Conerly for 5 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+12
100.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 12 yds to the BRY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+15
100.0%
pass incomplete to Timothy Conerly Bryant Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Hollis Dirstine) to the BRY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 22PUNT2 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23FUMBLE1 play · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-2
99.9%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the BRY 48 Courtney Reese fumbled, recovered by BRY DeVante FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Doug Brumfield 19 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick)
+4.1
TD · Q1 8:49
Jai'Den Thomas 18 Yd Run (Andre Meono Kick)
+2.9
FG · Q3 7:29
Jose Pizano 37 Yd Field Goal
+2.4