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IDST

Idaho State 28 at San Diego State 36

SDSU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreIDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:14 · Ross Bolger punt for 42 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for 11 yds to the SDSU 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+25.0Home team on offense+16.4Garbage-time factor+4.3Score differential+5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:14: Christian Fredericksen 24 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Thomas Kopcho Kick) — IDST win probability +3.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:09: Martin Blake run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:34: Chedon James 8 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Hunter Hays Pass to Alfred Jordan Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — IDST win probability +5.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:50: Jalen Mayden run for 56 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK) — SDSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:39: Hunter Hays run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Kopcho KICK) — IDST win probability +11.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6IDST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:18IDST 4th & 6 at IDST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:49IDST 4th & 3 at SDSU 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:50SDSU 4th & 10 at IDST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:17IDST 4th & 5 at IDST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:44SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:50IDST 4th & 10 at SDSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:47IDST 4th & 10 at SDSU 32, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:48IDST 4th & 8 at IDST 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:14IDST 4th & 5 at IDST 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:33SDSU 4th & 4 at IDST 45, up 16
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:32SDSU 4th & 9 at SDSU 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:12IDST 4th & 2 at SDSU 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−1.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:40SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 20, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IDST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 2:54SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:35SDSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:14IDST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:09SDSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:34IDST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:50SDSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:39IDST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IDSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.7%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Cyrus Wallace for 4 yds to the IDST 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q1 14:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
97.6%
Ross Bolger punt for 49 yds , Kenan Christon returns for 6 yds to the SDSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1998% → 97%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
97.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 1 yd to the SDSU 29Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+9
97.6%
Kenan Christon run for 9 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
97.6%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the SDSU 36Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
97.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 4 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
97.2%
Jack Browning punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Aaron Blancas at the IDST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 3FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:103% → 3%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.3%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Christian Fredrickson for 9 yds to the IDST 34Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.3%
Keoua Kauhi run for 1 yd to the IDST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.3%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Alfred Jordan Jr. for 9 yds to the IDST 44Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
97.2%
Keoua Kauhi run for 2 yds to the IDST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 5
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+13
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Raiden Hunter for 13 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Alfred Jordan Jr.Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Chedon James for 7 yds to the SDSU 14Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
96.6%
Thomas Kopcho 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:4897% → 96%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.7%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+29
96.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 29 yds to the IDST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.8%
Martin Blake run for no gain to the IDST 26Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
96.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Kenan ChristonSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
96.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Joshua NicholsonSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
96.4%
Jack Browning 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:284% → 4%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
96.3%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Alfred Jordan Jr. for 5 yds to the IDST 26Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
96.3%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Cortland HortonSimilar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
96.3%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Michael ShulikovSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
96.3%
Ross Bolger punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:3396% → 96%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
96.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 9 yds to the IDST 48Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
96.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 4 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-3
96.4%
Jalen Mayden sacked by David Rowe for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 43Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
95.7%
Jack Browning punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.7%
Jordan Cooke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:4496% → 97%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
96.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 8 yds to the IDST 24Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+24
96.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 9FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:044% → 5%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Jordan Cooke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
96.2%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Chedon James for 39 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
96.0%
Hunter Hays run for 5 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
95.9%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
95.9%
Hunter Hays run for 4 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+4
95.5%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Chedon James for 4 yds to the SDSU 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
95.6%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
95.2%
Thomas Kopcho 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
95.3%
Kinaga,Yoann kickoff 0 yards to the ISU35 PENALTY ISU Delay Of Game (Kinaga,Yoann) 5 yards from ISU35 to ISU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
95.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Logan George for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSU 32 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by IDST Dason Brooks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.9%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Keoua KauhiSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
94.9%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Keoua KauhiSimilar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
95.0%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Keoua KauhiSimilar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
95.1%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Alfred Jordan Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 7:1295% → 96%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.0%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the SDSU 38Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+6
95.2%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the SDSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+21
95.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 21 yds to the IDST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
95.3%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the IDST 42Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
95.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the IDST 38Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
95.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 4 yds to the IDST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
95.4%
Kenan Christon run for 7 yds to the IDST 27Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+12
94.6%
Martin Blake run for 12 yds to the IDST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
94.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the IDST 15Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
94.6%
Martin Blake run for 6 yds to the IDST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
94.6%
Martin Blake run for 5 yds to the IDST 4Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 13INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:034% → 4%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.7%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Aiden Taylor for 9 yds to the IDST 34Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
95.3%
Aiden Taylor run for 2 yds to the IDST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
95.6%
Hunter Hays sacked by Garret Fountain for a loss of 3 yards to the IDST 33Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Hunter Hays pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:2296% → 96%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
95.6%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SDSU 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SDSUSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+5
95.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the IDST 46Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+17
95.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 17 yds to the IDST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
95.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 13
OPP 32
+8
95.7%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 8 yds to the IDST 24Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+41
96.4%
Jack Browning 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 0:504% → 8%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
95.7%
Jordan Cooke run for 4 yds to the IDST 39Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
95.6%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Christian FredricksonSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
95.8%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Cyrus Wallace for 7 yds to the IDST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
95.6%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Aaron Blancas for 3 yds to the IDST 49Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+27
95.3%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Alfred Jordan Jr. for 27 yds to the SDSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
91.8%
Christian Fredericksen 24 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Thomas Kopcho Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0994% → 94%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
93.6%
Martin Blake run for 5 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
93.7%
Tobin O'Dell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 46 yds · 5:0393% → 93%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
93.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the IDST 49Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
93.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the IDST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
93.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 16 yds to the IDST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
93.6%
Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the IDST 27Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
93.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 3 yds to the IDST 24Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+7
93.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 7 yds to the IDST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+17
93.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 17 yds to the IDST 10Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
93.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the IDST 10 Jaylon Armstead fumbled, recovered by IDST Teilor TuiotiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:059% → 7%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
91.1%
Keoua Kauhi run for 8 yds to the IDST 18Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 2
OWN 18
-6
90.9%
Jordan Cooke sacked by Cody Moon for a loss of 6 yards to the IDST 12Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
91.6%
Jordan Cooke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
93.0%
Ross Bolger punt for 12 yds for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3294% → 97%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
93.7%
Kenan Christon run for 6 yds to the IDST 21Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+9
93.7%
Martin Blake run for 9 yds to the IDST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
93.7%
Martin Blake run for 4 yds to the IDST 8Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
93.7%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the IDST 3Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
97.1%
Martin Blake run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:555% → 4%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Jordan Cooke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.7%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Alfred Jordan Jr. for 5 yds to the IDST 30Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+11
95.8%
Ross Bolger punt for 42 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for 11 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
97.1%
Shotgun Mayden,Jalen pass incomplete deep right to Penny,Brionne PENALTY ISU Holding (Young,Mason) 10 yards from SDSU39 to SDSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.1%
Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the IDST 48Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
97.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 3 yds to the IDST 45Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
97.1%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne PennySimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
96.8%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 22TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:594% → 11%
Q3 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
95.8%
Raiden Hunter run for 5 yds to the IDST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.8%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
95.8%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Cyrus WallaceSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+23
96.2%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Cyrus Wallace for 23 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
95.6%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Christian Fredrickson for 5 yds to the SDSU 38Similar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
95.1%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Aaron Blancas for 8 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+6
94.9%
Hunter Hays run for 6 yds to the SDSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
94.2%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Julian Mason for 5 yds to the SDSU 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
94.2%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Michael ShulikovSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+5
94.7%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Julian Mason for 5 yds to the SDSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.2%
Hunter Hays run for 1 yd to the SDSU 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
94.2%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Michael ShulikovSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.7%
Chedon James 8 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Hunter Hays Pass to Alfred Jordan Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0292% → 91%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.1%
Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
92.3%
Cam Davis run for 4 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
92.1%
Martin Blake run for 5 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
93.0%
Martin Blake run for 2 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
93.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 1 yd to the SDSU 40Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
92.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
91.3%
Jack Browning punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Aaron Blancas at the IDST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:2010% → 11%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
90.4%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Keoua Kauhi for 23 yds to the IDST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.6%
Hunter Hays pass incomplete to Cyrus WallaceSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
88.1%
Hunter Hays pass complete to Chedon James for 7 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
86.5%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
87.9%
Hunter Hays run for 1 yd to the SDSU 30Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
89.1%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Aaron BlancasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:2293% → 98%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
92.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 9 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
93.3%
Martin Blake run for 5 yds to the SDSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
97.6%
Jalen Mayden run for 56 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 26INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:384% → 4%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
96.2%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Christian Fredrickson for 19 yds to the IDST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
95.9%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Chedon James for 1 yd to the IDST 45Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Jordan Cooke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
97.6%
Martin Blake run for 2 yds to the SDSU 15Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
97.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 7 yds to the SDSU 22Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
97.7%
Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
98.0%
Jack Browning punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 28TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:012% → 14%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.7%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
97.8%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Cyrus Wallace for 13 yds to the IDST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
97.7%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Cyrus Wallace for 3 yds to the IDST 48Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
97.6%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Chedon James for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 5
50
+10
97.7%
Hunter Hays run for 10 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+9
97.1%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Aaron Blancas for 9 yds to the SDSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
97.1%
Jordan Cooke pass complete to Christian Fredrickson for 6 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
97.1%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Soujah GasuSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Michael ShulikovSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
97.1%
PENALTY ISU False Start 5 yards from SDSU02 to SDSU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
97.1%
PENALTY ISU False Start 5 yards from SDSU07 to SDSU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
97.2%
Jordan Cooke pass incomplete to Chedon JamesSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.2%
Hunter Hays run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Kopcho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:3597% → 97%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
97.2%
J. Mayden takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
97.5%
J. Mayden takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-1
97.4%
J. Mayden takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:39
Hunter Hays run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Kopcho KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 13:34
Chedon James 8 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Hunter Hays Pass to Alfred Jordan Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-5.5
TD · Q4 6:50
Jalen Mayden run for 56 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com