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RMU

Robert Morris 7 at Air Force 42

AF
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadRMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreRMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:32 · George Souders III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AFA 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+47.6Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.2Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:22: Cade Harris run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — RMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:27: Zac Larrier run for 26 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — RMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:31: Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 84 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:58: Owen Burk run for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:32RMU 4th & 2 at RMU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:51RMU 4th & 13 at RMU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00AF 4th & 2 at AF 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:22RMU 4th & 10 at AF 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44RMU 4th & 11 at RMU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:22RMU 4th & 30 at RMU 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:41RMU 4th & 6 at AF 6, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:29AF 4th & 3 at RMU 43, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:07AF 4th & 5 at RMU 32, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:41RMU 4th & 13 at RMU 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:22AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:27AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:31AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:58AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:53AF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:35RMU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RMUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Trenell Ridgley run for 2 yds to the RMU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.3%
Tyler Szalkowski run for 2 yds to the RMU 29Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.2%
Tyler Szalkowski run for 3 yds to the RMU 26 Tyler Szalkowski fumbled, recovered by AFA Jamari BellamySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1499% → 99%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.2%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the RMU 23Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+16
99.2%
Zac Larrier run for 8 yds to the RMU 15 for a 1ST down Robert Morris Penalty, Personal Foul (Britton Pascoe) to the RMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the RMU 6Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.2%
Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the RMU 7Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.2%
PENALTY RMU Offside (Fleurima Jr.,Bernadin) 4 yards from RMU07 to RMU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.2%
PENALTY RMU Offside (Fleurima Jr.,Bernadin) 4 yards from RMU07 to RMU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.1%
Cade Harris run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:501% → 1%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Robert Dickerson run for 3 yds to the RMU 22Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+18
99.1%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for 18 yds to the RMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.1%
Tyler Szalkowski pass incomplete to Chaese JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.1%
Zin'Tayvious Smith run for 2 yds to the RMU 38Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+10
99.0%
Tyler Szalkowski pass complete to Connor Becker for 10 yds to the RMU 48Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
99.0%
George Souders III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 5:0599% → 99%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+24
99.0%
Zac Larrier run for 24 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.0%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
99.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
99.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the RMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.0%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Kendin AlexanderSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.0%
Aiden Calvert run for 9 yds to the RMU 39Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
99.0%
PENALTY AF False Start (Roznos,Jared) 5 yards from RMU39 to RMU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+14
99.0%
Zac Larrier run for 14 yds to the RMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the RMU 26Similar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the RMU 26Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
99.0%
Zac Larrier run for 26 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Tyler Szalkowski pass complete to Day Day Jones for 4 yds to the RMU 29Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.9%
Tyler Szalkowski pass incomplete to Noah RobinsonSimilar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
98.9%
Tyler Szalkowski sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 7 yards to the RMU 22Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
98.8%
George Souders III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.9%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
98.9%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
98.9%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+1
98.8%
Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Robert Morris Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
98.7%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for no gain to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+4
98.7%
Tyler Szalkowski pass complete to Connor Becker for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
98.6%
George Souders III punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.7%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+84
99.2%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 84 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 4:411% → 1%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.1%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for 1 yd to the RMU 28Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
99.1%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to James Westry for 6 yds to the RMU 34Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+3
99.1%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Kimon O'Sullivan for 3 yds to the RMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Day Day Jones run for no gain to the RMU 37Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.1%
Day Day Jones run for 2 yds to the RMU 35Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-5
99.2%
PENALTY RMU False Start 5 yards from RMU35 to RMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+6
99.2%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Parker Fetterman for 6 yds to the RMU 36Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+6
99.2%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Parker Fetterman for 6 yds to the RMU 36Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
99.1%
George Souders III punt for 49 yds , Cade Harris returns for no gain to the AFA 12 Cade Harris fumbled, recovered by AFA Trey WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 5:4699% → 100%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.3%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+2
99.3%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+6
99.3%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.3%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the AFA 19 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by AFA John Lee Eldridge IIISimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-10
99.3%
Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
99.3%
Aiden Calvert run for 12 yds to the RMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.3%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the RMU 46Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
99.3%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the RMU 41Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
99.3%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the RMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
99.3%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 11 yds to the RMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.7%
Owen Burk run for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for 7 yds to the RMU 32Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.7%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for 5 yds to the RMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Noah Robinson for 5 yds to the RMU 42Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
99.7%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for 1 yd to the RMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+69
99.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 65 yds to the RMU 8 for a 1ST down Robert Morris Penalty, Personal Foul (Shakespeare Louis) to the RMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 13PUNT
17 plays · 20 yds · 6:310% → 0%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for no gain to the RMU 25Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Noah Robinson for 1 yd to the RMU 26Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt run for 4 yds to the RMU 35 Anthony Chiccitt fumbled, recovered by RMU Diego Turcios for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt pass incomplete to Noah RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt pass incomplete to Parker FettermanSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Andre Cooper II for 12 yds to the RMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Day Day Jones for 4 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+14
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Chaese Jackson for 14 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Shotgun Chiccitt,Anthony pass complete deep right to O'Sullivan,Kimon for 35 yards to the AF 00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:10 PENALTY RMU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Davis,Sam) 5 yards from AF 35 to AF 40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+15
99.9%
PENALTY RMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (O'Sullivan,Kimon) 15 yards from AF 40 to RMU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 30
OWN 45
-5
99.9%
PENALTY RMU False Start (Fetterman,Parker) 5 yards from RMU45 to RMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 35
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Cyrus Bonsu for 5 yds to the RMU 45Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 30
OWN 45
-7
99.9%
Anthony Chiccitt sacked by James Tomasi for a loss of 7 yards to the RMU 38Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 37
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Robert Morris Penalty, Illegal Formation (Garret Fairman) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 30
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
George Souders III punt for 42 yds , Cade Harris returns for 2 yds to the AFA 15 Cade Harris fumbled, recovered by RMU Joe MalcheskySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 0 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
Cyrus Bonsu run for 5 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Cyrus Bonsu run for 5 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
Cyrus Bonsu run for 4 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Cyrus Bonsu run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Anthony Chiccitt run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
99.8%
PENALTY RMU False Start (Jackson,Chaese) 5 yards from AF 01 to AF 06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+9
99.9%
run for 9 yds to the AFA 15 fumbled, recovered by AFA Trey WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
99.9%
Jensen Jones run for 7 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the RMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 5:08100% → 100%
Q3 3:41
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Jet Harris run for 4 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Jensen Jones run for 12 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
99.9%
Dylan Carson run for 29 yds to the RMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Dylan Carson run for 10 yds to the RMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
99.9%
Jensen Jones run for 8 yds to the RMU 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
99.9%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the RMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+1
99.9%
Jensen Jones run for 1 yd to the RMU 7Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Jensen Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 17DOWNS TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
100.0%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Chaese Jackson for 8 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+10
100.0%
Landen Lucas run for 10 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
100.0%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for 6 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+30
99.9%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Noah Robinson for 30 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Kimon O'Sullivan run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Chaese Jackson for 1 yd for a TD (Jayson Jenkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
15 plays · -3 yds · 8:22100% → 100%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
Kaden Cloud run for 11 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Ben Brittain run for 7 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the RMU 47Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Darius Stone run for 6 yds to the RMU 41Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-5
99.9%
PENALTY AF False Start (Menefee,Parker) 5 yards from RMU41 to RMU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the RMU 43Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+6
99.9%
John Busha run for 6 yds to the RMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
100.0%
Cannon Turner run for 2 yds to the RMU 35Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Kaden Cloud run for no gain to the RMU 35Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
Cannon Turner run for 3 yds to the RMU 32Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
100.0%
Cannon Turner run for no gain to the RMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Anthony Chiccitt pass incomplete to Landen LucasSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Anthony Chiccitt pass incomplete to James WestrySimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Parker Fetterman for 3 yds to the RMU 29Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
100.0%
George Souders III punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
100.0%
C. Turner takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
100.0%
C. Turner takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-2
100.0%
C. Turner takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:31
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 84 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 1:58
Owen Burk run for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 11:22
Cade Harris run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com