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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:12 · Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:50: Tahj Bullock run for 5 yds for a TD (Owen Wiley KICK) — AKR win probability +14.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:16: Kurtis Rourke 4 Yd Run (Kurtis Rourke Pass to Tyler Walton for Two-Point Conversion) — OHIO win probability +17.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 0:19: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, illegal block (Nate Thompson) to the AKR 44 for a 1ST down — AKR win probability +16.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:16: Alex Kasee kickoff for 47 yds , Blake Hester return for 13 yds to the AKR 31 — OHIO win probability +11.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 2:06: Miles Cross 1 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +19.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:26OHIO 4th & 2 at AKR 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%57% to convertField goal80.6%−0.145% to makePunt80.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 10:50OHIO 4th & 7 at AKR 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call79.9%85% to makePunt79.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:00AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snapGo for it20.4%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%average punt
- Q1 5:49OHIO 4th & 9 at AKR 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.7%average punt
- Q1 1:24AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt24.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:52AKR 4th & 9 at OHIO 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.5%32% to convertField goal24.3%−0.236% to makePunt24.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:23OHIO 4th & 8 at AKR 34, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snapGo for it74.5%34% to convertField goalTheir call74.5%−<0.147% to makePunt74.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:34OHIO 4th & 13 at AKR 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snapGo for it62.0%−0.921% to convertField goalTheir call62.9%54% to makePunt61.8%−1.2average punt
- Q2 2:30AKR 4th & 3 at OHIO 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.4%53% to convertField goal38.4%−0.945% to makePunt37.5%−1.9average punt
- Q2 0:03OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 42, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it39.8%−2.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.7%average punt
- Q3 11:37AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 28, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it57.4%−3.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q3 6:25AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 38, up 3Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it48.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%−0.8average punt
- Q4 14:46OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 42, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt82.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:21OHIO 4th & 2 at AKR 43, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.5%57% to convertField goal78.1%−3.428% to makePunt79.2%−2.3average punt
- Q4 6:42AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q4 3:25OHIO 4th & 4 at AKR 42, up 18Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.5%48% to convertField goal98.2%−0.330% to makePuntTheir call98.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:25AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 33, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%36% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 9:53AKR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.0%97% to makeGo for two31.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:50AKR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.7%97% to makeGo for two51.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:16OHIO Touchdown, down 3 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick54.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call54.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:06OHIO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.8%97% to makeGo for two66.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1FG12 plays · 62 yds · 4:0885% → 83%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
15.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 5 yds to the OHIO 45Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+10
15.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 10 yds to the AKR 35Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
16.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Tyler Walton, broken up by Tyson DurantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 1:4217% → 17%
OHIODrive 3Uncategorized7 plays · -9 yds · 2:1682% → 81%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
18.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 9 yds to the OHIO 19Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
17.8%
O'Shaan Allison run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
18.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 2 yds to the AKR 49Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
18.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sam Wiglusz, broken up by Darrian LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4DOWNS13 plays · 35 yds · 5:4719% → 21%
Q1 4:19
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+13
19.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 13 yds to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
19.7%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Drake Anderson for 13 yds to the AKR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
20.4%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Drake Anderson for 5 yds to the AKR 48Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+12
21.1%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 12 yds to the OHIO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 9
OPP 39
-7
21.4%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the OHIO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5MISSED FG6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2380% → 78%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
20.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 18 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-10
20.5%
Bangura,Sieh rush (Martin,KJ), PENALTY OU holding (Rhodes,Shedrick) 10 yards to the AKR23. Ohio Penalty, Offensive holding (Shedrick Rhodes Jr.) to the AKR 43Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+9
21.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the AKR 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:2723% → 30%
OHIODrive 7MISSED FG11 plays · 38 yds · 5:1172% → 66%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
27.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 5 yds to the OHIO 48Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+9
28.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the AKR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
28.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Sam Wiglusz, broken up by KJ MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8TD10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4034% → 54%
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
34.1%
Tahj Bullock pass incomplete to Jake Newell Ohio Penalty, off-side (Bralen Henderson) to the AKR 36Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+19
35.6%
Tahj Bullock run for 4 yds to the OHIO 43 Ohio Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Torrie Cox Jr.) to the OHIO 42Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
37.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 3 yds to the OHIO 35Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+23
36.4%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 10 yds to the OHIO 25 Ohio Penalty, personal foul (Keye Thompson) to the OHIO 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT11 plays · 17 yds · 1:3250% → 46%
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 12 yds to the OHIO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
50.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 7 yds to the OHIO 44Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+12
50.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the AKR 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 3:1754% → 57%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 4 yds to the AKR 29Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
55.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 7 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
57.2%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the AKR 29Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-1
57.1%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for a loss of 1 yard to the AKR 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD9 plays · 76 yds · 11:1242% → 46%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
57.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 9 yds to the OHIO 33Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+31
58.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 31 yds to the AKR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
56.6%
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the AKR 8 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyson Durant) to the AKR 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.6%
Kurtis Rourke 4 Yd Run (Kurtis Rourke Pass to Tyler Walton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+27
53.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, illegal block (Nate Thompson) to the AKR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4346% → 46%
OHIODrive 13TD7 plays · 74 yds · 4:1255% → 76%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+57
45.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 42 yds to the AKR 32 Akron Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Darrian Lewis) to the AKR 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14INT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5221% → 20%
OHIODrive 15TD15 plays · 64 yds · 8:3883% → 91%
AKRDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:394% → 3%
OHIODrive 17PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 3:1198% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 13 yds · 0:532% → 2%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
2.1%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Bobby Golden for 10 yds to the AKR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
2.0%
Undercuffler,Jeff rush left , out-of-bounds, PENALTY AKR holding (Frank,Ben). Akron Penalty, Defensive holding (Ben Frank) to the AKR 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19Uncategorized5 plays · 28 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Miles Cross 1 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Gianni Spetic Kick)
-19.8
TD · Q3 8:16
Kurtis Rourke 4 Yd Run (Kurtis Rourke Pass to Tyler Walton for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.5
TD · Q3 0:19
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, illegal block (Nate Thompson) to the AKR 44 for a 1ST down
+16