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TOL

Toledo 32 at Central Michigan 17

CMU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:56 · Emilio Duran punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior−20.6Home team on offense−0.7Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:22: Jaden Dottin 23 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick) — TOL win probability +9.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:53: Peny Boone 2 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick) — TOL win probability +9.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:44: Jacquez Stuart 11 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick) — TOL win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:18: Jase Bauer 7 Yd Run (Jase Bauer Pass to Decorion Temple for Two-Point Conversion) — CMU win probability +10.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:14: Peny Boone 5 Yd Run (Dequan Finn Pass to Thomas Zsiros for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:28TOL 4th & 4 at CMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51CMU 4th & 7 at TOL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:43TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:56CMU 4th & 5 at TOL 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:53TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:30CMU 4th & 5 at TOL 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:58TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:06CMU 4th & 21 at CMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:56TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:52CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:59CMU 4th & 20 at CMU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−4.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:03TOL 4th & 1 at CMU 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%−1.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:05CMU 4th & 1 at TOL 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−3.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:01CMU 4th & 6 at TOL 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−7.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:01CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 1:22TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:53TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:44TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:18CMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:14TOL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:05CMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3179% → 78%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.7%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
20.8%
Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
21.0%
Peny Boone run for 15 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
21.2%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
21.4%
pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+2
21.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
21.8%
pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:3522% → 24%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
22.1%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 42Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
22.5%
pass incomplete to Javorian WimberlySimilar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+6
22.3%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the CMU 48Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
22.7%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
50
0
23.3%
pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
50
+6
23.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 6 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
23.7%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-5
24.0%
Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Davis Heinzen) to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
23.7%
Jake Walrath punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0276% → 75%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-11
23.7%
Dequan Finn sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the TOL 9 Toledo Penalty, intentional grounding (Dequan Finn) to the TOL 9Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+14
24.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-9
24.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the TOL 28 Toledo Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyler Long) to the TOL 14Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
24.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:4125% → 26%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
24.8%
Myles Bailey run for 15 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
25.3%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+1
25.8%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the TOL 36Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
25.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker Central Michigan Penalty, illegal touching (Chris Parker) to the TOL 36Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+54
26.1%
Tristan Mattson 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0375% → 74%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
25.4%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
25.2%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 42Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
25.5%
pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
26.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:1527% → 28%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
26.5%
pass incomplete to Langston LewisSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+19
26.5%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 34 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, personal foul (Travion Ford) to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
27.6%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
28.2%
pass incomplete to Decorion TempleSimilar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
28.1%
pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
27.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:2473% → 72%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
26.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 21 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
26.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 40Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
26.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+5
27.3%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q2 14:58
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+1
27.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 38 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for 1 yd to the CMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 4:4829% → 30%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
28.8%
Myles Bailey run for 10 yds to the CMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
29.2%
Lukes,Marion rush middle (McNeil-Warren,Emmanuel;Alexander,Darius).Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
29.5%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
29.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 6 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
30.9%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 38Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-10
31.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Dominic Serapiglia III) to the CMU 28Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+7
30.8%
Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-9
30.6%
Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the CMU 26Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 21
OWN 26
0
30.4%
Jake Walrath punt for 44 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the TOL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0170% → 68%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
30.2%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-15
30.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry Stephens Toledo Penalty, personal foul (Vinny Sciury) to the TOL 17Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 23
OWN 17
0
31.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 23
OWN 17
+5
32.2%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
32.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0033% → 34%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
33.3%
Marion Lukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 27Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+3
33.4%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+4
33.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 4 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
33.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:2369% → 79%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
31.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the TOL 35Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
30.9%
pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
32.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
50
-3
30.0%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 47 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by TOL Dequan Finn Finn,Dequan rush middle for loss of 3 yards to the TOL47, fumble by Finn,Dequan recovered by TOL Finn,Dequan, Finn,Dequan rush.Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+3
31.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 10
50
+14
31.8%
Dequan Finn run for 14 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
30.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
29.9%
Boone,Peny rush left (Cochran,Dakota).Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+6
30.4%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the CMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
20.6%
Jaden Dottin 23 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:1825% → 24%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
24.9%
Bailey,Myles rush left (Delancy III,Ronald;Ragin,D'Andre).Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-12
24.9%
Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the CMU 10Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 22
OWN 10
+2
24.0%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the CMU 12Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 20
OWN 12
0
23.6%
Jake Walrath punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4679% → 79%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
20.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony Torres for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Defensive holding (Justin Whiteside) to the CMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
20.6%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the CMU 20 Toledo Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony Torres) to the CMU 30Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 11
OPP 30
0
20.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry Stephens, broken up by Jarvarius SimsSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+10
20.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the CMU 20Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
20.9%
pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+38
20.8%
Luke Pawlak 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:1621% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
21.2%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the CMU 33 Marion Lukes fumbled, recovered by CMU Marion Lukes Lukes,Marion rush middle for 8 yards to the CMU33, fumble by Lukes,Marion recovered by CMU Lukes,Marion, Lukes,Marion rush (Ragin,D'Andre). Lukes,Marion rush middle for 8 yards to the CMU33, fumble by Lukes,Marion recovered by CMU Lukes,Marion, Lukes,Marion rush (Ragin,D'Andre).Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+44
22.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 44 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
24.0%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
24.1%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+3
22.8%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
24.0%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the TOL 7 Marion Lukes fumbled, recovered by TOL Zachary Ford Lukes,Marion rush right for 6 yards to the TOL07, fumble by Lukes,Marion recovered by TOL Ford,Zachary, Ford,Zachary rush.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 3:4579% → 90%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
21.5%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 13Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+13
21.3%
Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
21.0%
Dequan Finn sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the TOL 20Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+13
21.6%
Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+64
21.1%
Peny Boone run for 64 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
19.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the CMU 2Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
19.4%
pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.2%
Peny Boone 2 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:4412% → 13%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
12.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jacob Kaminski for 16 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
13.2%
Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
13.3%
pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+4
13.2%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
13.1%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
13.0%
Bauer,Jase rush middle (Bolden,Daniel).Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
12.6%
Myles Bailey run for 8 yds to the TOL 35Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+7
13.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 7 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
13.1%
pass incomplete to Thomas PannunzioSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+16
12.8%
Jase Bauer run for 16 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
13.0%
Bauer,Jase rush left (Bolden,Daniel).Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
12.9%
pass incomplete to Thomas PannunzioSimilar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+4
12.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 4 yds to the TOL 8Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
13.4%
Tristan Mattson 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:1090% → 98%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
10.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 6 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
9.6%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
9.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Eric Holley III for 19 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
7.9%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+8
7.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the CMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
7.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the CMU 20Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-3
7.0%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 23Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+12
6.8%
Central Michigan Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Whiteside) to the CMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
1.8%
Jacquez Stuart 11 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:173% → 14%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
2.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Myles Bailey for 7 yds to the CMU 42Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
2.6%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
2.4%
pass incomplete to Langston LewisSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-8
2.3%
Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the CMU 37Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+7
2.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Myles Bailey for 7 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+49
2.1%
Jake Walrath pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 49 yds to the TOL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
3.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Decorion TempleSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
14.4%
Jase Bauer 7 Yd Run (Jase Bauer Pass to Decorion Temple for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:0094% → 99%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
5.8%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
5.8%
pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+14
6.0%
Dequan Finn run for 14 yds to the CMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
5.3%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+2
5.3%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the CMU 21Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+16
5.4%
Peny Boone run for 16 yds to the CMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.1%
Peny Boone 5 Yd Run (Dequan Finn Pass to Thomas Zsiros for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:011% → 5%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
1.3%
Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the CMU 26Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 17
OWN 26
0
1.2%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Langston Lewis, broken up by Daniel BoldenSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 17
OWN 26
+35
1.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 35 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
1.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 5 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
1.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 4 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
1.5%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the TOL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
1.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Myles Bailey Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Deiyantei Powell-Woods) to the TOL 37Similar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+9
1.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 9 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
1.3%
pass incomplete to Langston LewisSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+21
1.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Kenny Brewer III for 21 yds to the TOL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
2.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Mitchel CollierSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.5%
Thomas Pannunzio 7 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21Uncategorized
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2398% → 98%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
2.5%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-3
2.1%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 44Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 16
OPP 44
-2
2.0%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:18
Jase Bauer 7 Yd Run (Jase Bauer Pass to Decorion Temple for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.9
TD · Q2 1:22
Jaden Dottin 23 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Luke Pawlak Kick)
-9.8
TD · Q3 7:53
Peny Boone 2 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com