2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:52 · Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:27: Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +2.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:38: Jackson Courville 48 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +4.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:42: Andrew Glass 45 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +2.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:56: Kiael Kelly run for 22 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +8.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:44: Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6KENT made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 13:19KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snapGo for it22.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q1 11:52BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it77.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q1 10:01KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 28, tiedClose callPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it22.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:58BALL 4th & 4 at KENT 27, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snapGo for it76.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call76.2%−0.162% to makePunt75.6%−0.8average punt
- Q1 3:07KENT 4th & 2 at BALL 47, down 3Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it24.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:16KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q2 10:38BALL 4th & 10 at KENT 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snapGo for it78.2%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call78.6%54% to makePunt77.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:41KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 34, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q2 7:39BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 33, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it83.8%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.6%average punt
- Q2 5:59KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 16, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it14.4%−1.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q2 5:59KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 16, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it14.4%−1.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q2 3:55BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 22, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it82.6%−2.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%average punt
- Q2 1:58KENT 4th & 3 at BALL 25, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.8%52% to convertField goal15.5%−0.366% to makePunt12.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 0:42KENT 4th & 17 at BALL 27, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snapGo for it13.7%−1.114% to convertField goalTheir call14.8%62% to makePunt12.3%−2.5average punt
- Q3 11:49BALL 4th & 3 at KENT 48, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt82.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:13KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 44, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q4 13:56KENT 4th & 12 at BALL 12, down 24Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−0.219% to convertField goal1.4%86% to makePunt0.5%−0.9average punt
- Q4 13:56KENT 4th & 12 at BALL 12, down 24Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−0.219% to convertField goal1.4%86% to makePunt0.5%−0.9average punt
- Q4 5:32KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 20, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 14:27BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:56BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%97% to makeGo for two89.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:44BALL Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:01BALL Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2320% → 21%
Q1 13:24
4TH & 17
OWN 10
+5
79.4%
(13:32) Smith,Josh punt 45 yards to the BSU45 PENALTY BSU Running Into The Kicker (Evans,Brayden) 5 yards from KSU10 to KSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 12
OWN 15
+40
79.3%
Josh Smith punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 45 Ball State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Beebe) to the BALL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1879% → 79%
Q1 11:52
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
78.8%
Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4421% → 21%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
78.8%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy pass complete deep left to Gardner,Jameel for 29 yards to the KSU41 (Potts,Tyler) PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Gardner,Jameel) 6 yards from KSU12 to KSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+16
78.8%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy rush right for 7 yards gain to the KSU13, End Of Play PENALTY BSU Personal Foul (Pearce,Cole) 16 yards from KSU06 to KSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
78.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 8 yds to the KENT 30Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+2
78.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Trell Harris for 2 yds to the KENT 28Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+3
78.6%
Josh Smith punt for 34 yds , Qian Magwood returns for 3 yds to the BALL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4FG9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5979% → 78%
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
78.5%
(09:57) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass complete short middle to Magwood,Qian for 2 yards loss to the BSU39 (Nicholl,Rocco; Daley,Stephen) PENALTY KSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Blue,Capone) 15 yards from BSU41 to KSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3722% → 23%
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
77.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 10 yds to the KENT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3077% → 81%
Q1 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+46
77.3%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 46 yds to the KENT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5920% → 19%
Q2 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
80.7%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy pass incomplete short right to Harris,Trell QB hurried by Mims,Kyron PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation offsetting BSU Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
81.0%
Josh Smith punt for 36 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the KENT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8FG7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3181% → 85%
Q2 11:59
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+6
80.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Maximus Webster for 6 yds to the KENT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT9 plays · -1 yds · 1:4817% → 16%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
83.2%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy pass complete short left to Floriea,Luke for 3 yards to the KSU38, End Of Play PENALTY KSU Holding (Page,Andrew) 10 yards from KSU35 to KSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-13
83.8%
PENALTY KSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 13 yards from KSU25 to KSU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 27
OWN 18
+15
84.0%
Ball State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Riley) to the KENT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+9
84.3%
Josh Smith punt for 47 yds , Qian Magwood returns for 9 yds to the BALL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5886% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:3416% → 14%
Q2 6:44
3RD & 11
OWN 21
-5
85.6%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Mikhari Sibblis for a loss of 5 yards to the KENT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5787% → 86%
Q2 3:55
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+14
86.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Luke Floriea returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13FG11 plays · 23 yds · 3:0915% → 16%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
50
+15
85.0%
Ball State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Loren Strickland) to the BALL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+7
84.4%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Justin Holmes for 7 yds to the BALL 24Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+5
85.1%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Trell Harris for 5 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
84.1%
Devin Kargman sacked by Sidney Houston Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 21Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-6
84.5%
Devin Kargman sacked by Sidney Houston Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3484% → 83%
BALLDrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0483% → 93%
KENTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:379% → 8%
Q3 9:11
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-5
91.7%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Golden,Cameron) 5 yards from KSU39 to KSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+10
91.8%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Trell Harris for 10 yds to the KENT 44Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+1
91.7%
Josh Smith punt for 46 yds , Qian Magwood returns for 1 yd to the BALL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD8 plays · 89 yds · 4:2294% → 98%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
94.1%
Kiael Kelly run for 12 yds to the KENT 49 for a 1ST down Kent State Penalty, Personal Foul (Sayed Abuhamdeh) to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18DOWNS13 plays · 52 yds · 4:383% → 1%
BALLDrive 19TD11 plays · 88 yds · 6:5599% → 100%
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
99.0%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds to the KENT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:110% → 0%
BALLDrive 21END OF GAME9 plays · 28 yds · 5:23100% → 100%
Q4 3:41
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charlie Spegal for 7 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 4 yds to the KENT 32Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Nick Presley for 6 yds to the KENT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:56
Kiael Kelly run for 22 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)
+8.1
FG · Q2 10:38
Jackson Courville 48 yd FG GOOD
+4.2
TD · Q3 3:44
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)
+3.3