2023 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2023 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreWMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:00 · Carson Voss punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:16: Antario Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +4.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:03: Antario Brown run for 66 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +6.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:50: Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the WMU 37 — WMU win probability +4.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:23: Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 05:23 — NIU win probability +5.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- PUNT · Q3 2:32: Carson Voss punt for 33 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 55 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 9:04NIU 4th & 6 at WMU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.9%40% to convertField goal61.8%−0.147% to makePunt61.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:37WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snapGo for it38.2%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.7%average punt
- Q2 14:00WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it33.3%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q2 8:58NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snapGo for it67.0%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q2 7:12WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 25, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 5:23WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 37, down 14Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it22.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:23WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 37, down 14Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it22.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:33NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 46, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.6%average punt
- Q2 0:02WMU 4th & 17 at NIU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it17.2%−1.415% to convertField goal17.7%−0.928% to makePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q3 11:24WMU 4th & 10 at NIU 35, down 14Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.0%−0.130% to convertField goal17.1%45% to makePuntTheir call16.4%−0.7average punt
- Q3 3:59NIU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 14Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snapGo for it89.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:32WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.4%−1.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.1%average punt
- Q3 0:08WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q4 11:35NIU 4th & 4 at WMU 8, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%42% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%−0.190% to makePunt97.0%−1.4average punt
- Q4 6:07WMU 4th & 11 at NIU 16, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−0.124% to convertField goal0.8%81% to makePunt0.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:16NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:03NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%97% to makeGo for two76.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNIUDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 49 yds · 5:4562% → 62%
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+5
61.6%
PENALTY WMU Offside (Kneeland,Marshawn) 5 yards from NIU21 to NIU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
62.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 16 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+10
61.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 10 yds to the WMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 1:1939% → 38%
Q1 8:19
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+6
61.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 6 yds to the WMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3TD16 plays · 83 yds · 7:1561% → 69%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
61.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+28
61.5%
Antario Brown run for 13 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Bilhal Kone) to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
62.6%
Trayvon Rudolph pass complete to Billy Dozier for 7 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.0%
(00:16) Seibert,Jake onside kickoff 11 yards to the NIU46 PENALTY NIU Illegal Block in Back (Lafayette,Devin) 5 yards from NIU35 to NIU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0035% → 34%
Q2 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
65.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Austin Hence for 3 yds to the WMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 4:5669% → 70%
WMUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2831% → 30%
NIUDrive 7TD2 plays · 66 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2723% → 22%
NIUDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 3:4283% → 85%
WMUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 41 yds · 1:2317% → 16%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+33
83.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 33 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
81.6%
PENALTY NIU Personal Foul 15 yards from WMU49 to NIU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
80.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 3 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+3
83.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 3 yds to the NIU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2319% → 17%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
81.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn King for 13 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
80.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 3 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+18
80.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 18 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT13 plays · 48 yds · 7:1781% → 87%
WMUDrive 14PUNT RETURN TD8 plays · 13 yds · 1:2113% → 4%
WMUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:083% → 2%
Q3 1:34
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+15
97.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 15 yds to the WMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
97.2%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Muhammed Jammeh for a loss of 5 yards to the WMU 17Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+7
97.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 7 yds to the WMU 24Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
97.8%
Cameron Peasley punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FG8 plays · 47 yds · 3:2599% → 99%
WMUDrive 17DOWNS17 plays · 76 yds · 5:131% → 1%
Q4 10:37
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+12
98.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 12 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
98.6%
(10:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass complete short right to Buckley,Jalen for 9 yards to the WMU28 (Byrd,JaVaughn) PENALTY WMU Holding 9 yards from WMU19 to WMU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+7
98.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 7 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+32
98.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 32 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+7
98.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 7 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+15
98.8%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass incomplete deep left to Bosma,Blake PENALTY NIU Pass Interference 15 yards from NIU49 to NIU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
98.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 4 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+15
98.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 15 yds to the NIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18END OF GAME10 plays · 72 yds · 5:58100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q3 2:32
Carson Voss punt for 33 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 55 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 7:03
Antario Brown run for 66 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
+6.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:23
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 05:23
+5.7