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TOL

Toledo 32 at Bowling Green 31

BGSU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2023 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:42 · Emilio Duran punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense+12.0Garbage-time factor+2.5Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:37: Camden Orth run for 5 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:57: Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 22 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +14.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:28: Peny Boone 1 Yd Run (Dequan Finn Pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +25.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 7:30: Alan Anaya 40 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:45: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 59 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +56.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:07TOL 4th & 14 at TOL 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:49TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−1.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:45BGSU 4th & 4 at TOL 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:22BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:36TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:03BGSU 4th & 9 at TOL 32, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:45TOL 4th & 6 at BGSU 48, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:52BGSU 4th & 6 at TOL 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:52BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 37, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:30BGSU 4th & 8 at TOL 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−17.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:42TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:36BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:45TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−7.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:44BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 24, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:06TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:15BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:46BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:37BGSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:57TOL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:28TOL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:45TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4580% → 79%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.3%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
20.5%
Peny Boone run for 14 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
20.6%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+23
20.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 23 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
20.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 5 yds to the BGSU 23Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
20.6%
Dequan Finn run for 23 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2621% → 22%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
20.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 14 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
21.0%
PENALTY Toledo Offside (Alexander,Darius) 5 yards from BGSU39 to BGSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+56
21.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 56 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:5778% → 77%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
21.7%
PENALTY Toledo False Start 5 yards from Toledo22 to Toledo17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+7
21.8%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-5
21.9%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Nwaogwugwu,David) 5 yards from Toledo24 to Toledo19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+4
22.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 4 yds to the TOL 23Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-5
22.5%
Dequan Finn sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 18Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
23.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4923% → 24%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
23.3%
Connor Bazelak run for 2 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
23.6%
Ta'ron Keith run for 3 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
23.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 8 yds to the BGSU 48Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
23.5%
Jackson Kleather punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5776% → 75%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
23.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
23.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 15Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
24.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
24.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 4:0525% → 31%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
24.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 6 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+19
25.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 19 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
26.0%
Connor Bazelak sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 35Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+13
26.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 13 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+2
26.6%
Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the TOL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
27.1%
Ta'ron Keith run for 3 yds to the TOL 8Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
27.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 6 yds to the TOL 2Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
31.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3970% → 71%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
30.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
30.4%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 32Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+39
31.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 39 yds to the BGSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-13
29.4%
Dequan Finn sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the BGSU 42Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 23
OPP 42
+5
31.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the BGSU 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+16
32.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 16 yds to the BGSU 21Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+39
29.1%
Luke Pawlak 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:0430% → 49%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.0%
Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
31.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
30.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 5 yds to the BGSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
31.3%
Ta'ron Keith run for 5 yds to the BGSU 42Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
32.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 9 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
33.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the TOL 48 Jaison Patterson fumbled, recovered by TOL Harold Fannin Jr. (12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Patterson,Jaison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Toledo48 fumbled by Patterson,Jaison at Toledo48 forced by McNeil-Warren,Emmanuel recovered by BGSU Fannin Jr.,Harold at Toledo48, End Of Play.Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+10
34.2%
Toledo Penalty, Defensive holding (Maxen Hook) to the TOL 46Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
34.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 8 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
35.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Jamal JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
35.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 5 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+12
35.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 12 yds to the TOL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
37.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 8 yds to the TOL 13Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
38.5%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 4 yds to the TOL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
39.1%
Camden Orth run for 4 yds to the TOL 5Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.0%
Camden Orth run for 5 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3154% → 51%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
46.0%
Peny Boone run for 23 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
45.4%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BGSU 42Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
45.8%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the BGSU 39Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+1
49.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd to the BGSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 62 yds · 4:1851% → 68%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
51.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 9 yds to the BGSU 47Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+7
50.8%
Camden Orth run for 7 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
53.3%
Camden Orth run for 1 yd to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+10
54.5%
(02:42) No Huddle Orth,Camden pass incomplete deep middle to Hiliare,Odieu QB hurried by Alexander,Darius PENALTY BGSU Holding (Stewart,Kameren) 10 yards from Toledo45 to BGSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+5
53.4%
PENALTY BGSU False Start (Fannin Jr.,Harold) 5 yards from BGSU45 to BGSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 24
OWN 40
+15
53.4%
Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Andre Ragin) to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
55.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
54.9%
Ta'ron Keith run for 8 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
55.8%
Camden Orth run for 2 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+13
55.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 13 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
59.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 20 yds to the TOL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
59.6%
Connor Bazelak run for 5 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.7%
Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:1634% → 32%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
66.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 9 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-6
66.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 9 yds to the BGSU 46 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jacquez Stuart) to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
67.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 21 yds to the BGSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2569% → 75%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.5%
Ta'ron Keith run for 4 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
75.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 5 yds to the BGSU 34Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
75.3%
PENALTY BGSU False Start (Pabst,Nate) 5 yards from BGSU34 to BGSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
75.0%
Jackson Kleather punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BGSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:1531% → 45%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
69.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 19 yds to the BGSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
55.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 22 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:2659% → 64%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
59.4%
Ta'ron Keith run for 14 yds to the BGSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
61.7%
Ta'ron Keith run for 2 yds to the BGSU 43Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
62.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+19
61.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 19 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
64.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the TOL 35Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
65.1%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+15
64.3%
Camden Orth run for 15 yds to the TOL 20 Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by TOL Maxen Hook (10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Orth,Camden rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Toledo20 fumbled by Orth,Camden at Toledo31 forced by Taylor,Terrance recovered by Toledo Hook,Maxen at Toledo20, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2137% → 34%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.8%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+7
64.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 7 yds to the TOL 25Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
66.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 69 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:2365% → 75%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
65.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai IbrahimSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+13
65.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 13 yds to the BGSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
67.0%
Ta'ron Keith run for 6 yds to the BGSU 25Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+7
67.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 7 yds to the BGSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
68.4%
Connor Bazelak run for 4 yds to the BGSU 36Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-7
69.8%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Deshawn Holt for a loss of 7 yards to the BGSU 29Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+28
69.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 28 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
73.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 7 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+3
74.4%
Ta'ron Keith run for 3 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Levi GazarekSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
75.0%
Ta'ron Keith run for 4 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-3
75.7%
Connor Bazelak sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 32Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 9
OPP 32
-6
74.5%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Deshawn Holt for a loss of 6 yards to the TOL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0928% → 22%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
72.2%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
71.6%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
72.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 8
50
+2
72.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the BGSU 48Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
72.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
77.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4681% → 81%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
80.9%
PaSean Wimberly run for 4 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
82.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
81.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Harold Fannin Jr.Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
80.8%
Jackson Kleather punt for 37 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the TOL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:1019% → 50%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
80.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+7
81.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
81.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+55
80.1%
Peny Boone run for 55 yds to the BGSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
75.7%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the BGSU 1Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.9%
Peny Boone 1 Yd Run (Dequan Finn Pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2063% → 64%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
63.3%
Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BGSU 36Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
66.1%
Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the BGSU 37Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
65.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai IbrahimSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
64.4%
Jackson Kleather punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3740% → 39%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
60.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 17Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
61.3%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2571% → 83%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
71.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 9 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+6
72.4%
Camden Orth run for 6 yds to the TOL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
72.9%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Orth,Camden rush right for 0 yards to the Toledo24 (Hook,Maxen) PENALTY BGSU Holding 10 yards from Toledo24 to Toledo34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 20
OPP 34
0
72.8%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Harold Fannin Jr.Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+12
71.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 12 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
72.2%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
82.9%
Alan Anaya 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3224% → 18%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
75.8%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
73.9%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-10
77.6%
Dequan Finn sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 10 yards to the TOL 23Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
82.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5786% → 86%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Camden Orth run for no gain to the BGSU 34Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
86.5%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
85.6%
Jackson Kleather punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:4418% → 72%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
81.6%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 24Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
82.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 3 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+6
84.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
81.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
82.5%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 34Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+7
84.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+59
28.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 59 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5345% → 35%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.3%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-7
44.7%
Camden Orth sacked by Judge Culpepper for a loss of 7 yards to the BGSU 24Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 17
OWN 24
0
36.9%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
35.2%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai IbrahimSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
4.9%
D. Finn takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:45
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 59 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-56.3
TD · Q4 12:28
Peny Boone 1 Yd Run (Dequan Finn Pass to Anthony Torres for Two-Point Conversion)
-25.9
TD · Q3 12:57
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 22 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com