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CMU

Central Michigan 28 at Western Michigan 38

WMU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2023 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:18 · Tristan Mattson 55 yd FG MISSED , Keni-H Lovely return for 47 yds to the WMU 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense+10.2Pregame prior+5.3Garbage-time factor+2.2Score differential+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:53: Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 10 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +13.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:38: Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 3 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +20.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:04: Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 67 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +23.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:53: Jalen Buckley 52 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick) — WMU win probability +29.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:51: Leroy Thomas 41 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Palmer Domschke Kick) — WMU win probability +24.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 6:53CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50CMU 4th & 19 at CMU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:50WMU 4th & 2 at CMU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:53WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:47WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:41CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:54WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18CMU 4th & 10 at WMU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18CMU 4th & 10 at WMU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:14WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:08CMU 4th & 2 at WMU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:39WMU 4th & 2 at CMU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−1.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:13WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:04WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.9%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:49WMU 4th & 20 at WMU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:49WMU 4th & 20 at WMU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:19CMU 4th & 3 at WMU 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.0%−1.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−10.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:37CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:37WMU 4th & 3 at CMU 9, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 12:15WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:08CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:23WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:53CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:38CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:04CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:53WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:51WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2037% → 37%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
62.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 13 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
62.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 7 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
62.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
63.4%
Jake Walrath punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
60.6%
Marion Lukes run for 16 yds to the CMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
60.6%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
60.6%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the CMU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-12
60.6%
Jase Bauer sacked by Isaiah Green for a loss of 12 yards to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 19
OWN 34
+9
61.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 55 yds , Zahir Abdus-Salaam returns for 9 yds to the WMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3761% → 64%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
61.4%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Gideon,Jacob) 5 yards from WMU20 to WMU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
61.4%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 15Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
61.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+35
61.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 35 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
50
+11
61.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 11 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 5 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
61.7%
PENALTY WMU False Start (West,Addison) 5 yards from CMU34 to CMU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
61.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 7 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
61.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the CMU 31Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+8
61.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 8 yds to the CMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
63.5%
Austin Hence 23 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 42 yds · 6:0664% → 65%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
63.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 10Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
63.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 5 yds to the WMU 15Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+8
63.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 8 yds to the WMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
63.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 8 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
63.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 9 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
64.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 5 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
64.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMU 46Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
63.9%
Hayden Wolff run for 3 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
63.6%
CJ Hester run for 2 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.2%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
64.1%
PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from CMU49 to WMU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
63.8%
CJ Hester run for 1 yd to the WMU 45Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+1
63.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 1 yd to the WMU 46Similar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
64.5%
Carson Voss punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:0635% → 34%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+12
65.2%
Marion Lukes run for 12 yds to the CMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
65.1%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
65.4%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
65.9%
Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jesse Prewitt III) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
66.4%
Jake Walrath punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:2667% → 75%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
66.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 21 yds to the CMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
67.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 9 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
67.1%
Hayden Wolff run for 2 yds to the CMU 24Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+12
66.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 12 yds to the CMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
67.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the CMU 6Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
67.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the CMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.8%
Jalen Buckley 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2628% → 26%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
71.9%
Marion Lukes run for 16 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
71.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lukes,Marion rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU35 (Hallock,Tate; Wahlberg,Jacob) PENALTY CMU Holding (Powell-Woods,Deiyantei) 10 yards from CMU33 to CMU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+11
72.0%
Myles Bailey run for 11 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
71.7%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
71.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Kenny Brewer IIISimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
73.7%
Jake Walrath punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5575% → 74%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 9
OWN 11
+4
75.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 7Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 13
OWN 7
0
74.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
74.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Leroy ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 13
OWN 7
+7
74.4%
Carson Voss punt for 50 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:4627% → 34%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
50
+2
73.0%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the WMU 48Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
73.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 7 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
72.6%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
73.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+8
71.9%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the WMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
71.9%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Thomas PannunzioSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
72.3%
Jase Bauer run for 9 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+17
66.2%
Marion Lukes run for 17 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:4570% → 81%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
69.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the WMU 35Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
70.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 2 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+8
70.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 8 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
71.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 9 yds to the CMU 46Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+11
71.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 11 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
71.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 20 yds to the CMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
71.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Abdus-Salaam,Zahir rush middle for 15 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY WMU Holding (West,Addison) 10 yards from CMU15 to CMU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+3
71.6%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+22
80.5%
Anthony Sambucci 22 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12MISSED FG
18 plays · 45 yds · 2:0522% → 21%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
78.1%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 21Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
77.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Sam Hicks for 5 yds to the CMU 26Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+6
76.9%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
76.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass complete short middle to Parker,Chris for 18 yards to the CMU50, End Of Play PENALTY CMU Holding (Powell-Woods,Deiyantei) 10 yards from CMU32 to CMU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
77.4%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+11
77.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 11 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+30
78.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 30 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
76.2%
Jase Bauer sacked by Corey Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 44Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+7
79.3%
Jase Bauer run for 7 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
78.8%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the WMU 37Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
79.2%
Tristan Mattson 55 yd FG MISSED , Keni-H Lovely return for no gain to the WMU 47Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+47
79.2%
Tristan Mattson 55 yd FG MISSED , Keni-H Lovely return for 47 yds to the WMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
83.1%
H. Wolff takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4682% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
81.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
81.8%
Hayden Wolff run for 5 yds to the WMU 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
81.1%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q3 14:14
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+7
80.7%
Carson Voss punt for 39 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for 7 yds to the WMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:0621% → 19%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
79.4%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the WMU 37Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+6
79.0%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the WMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-14
78.6%
Central Michigan Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-14 Yards) to the WMU 36Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+7
80.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 7 yds to the WMU 29Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+6
79.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Stephan Bracey Jr. for 6 yds to the WMU 23Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
81.3%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the WMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:2984% → 86%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
84.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+14
84.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 14 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
84.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+25
85.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 25 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
85.0%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
85.0%
CJ Hester run for 5 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
84.6%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
85.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4616% → 33%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete deep left to Parker,Chris PENALTY CMU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Swartout,Brayden) 5 yards from CMU25 to CMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+22
84.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Langston Lewis for 22 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
83.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 10 yds to the WMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.2%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Stephan Bracey Jr.Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
82.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete deep right to Parker,Chris PENALTY WMU Pass Interference declined WMU Personal Foul (Kneeland,Marshawn) 15 yards from WMU48 to WMU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
81.3%
Marion Lukes run for 16 yds to the WMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
80.8%
Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the WMU 10Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
67.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 10 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1677% → 77%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
76.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Kenneth WomackSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
76.8%
Hayden Wolff pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:5933% → 51%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
67.5%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the WMU 17Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+5
68.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Langston Lewis for 5 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+9
69.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 9 yds to the WMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 3 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2559% → 56%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 21Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
58.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 26Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
57.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
55.6%
Carson Voss punt for 41 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for no gain to the CMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
31.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 67 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 2:1537% → 31%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 6 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
39.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
38.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
36.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete to Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
38.6%
Hayden Wolff run for 4 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-6
32.0%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jason Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the WMU 28Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 20
OWN 28
+17
30.8%
Cameron Peasley punt for 52 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for 17 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 20
OWN 28
+17
30.8%
Cameron Peasley punt for 52 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for 17 yds to the CMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 4:3070% → 77%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
30.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
30.2%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
30.1%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
28.7%
Jase Bauer run for 27 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.9%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
26.9%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the WMU 33Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
27.9%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
23.5%
Tristan Mattson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:2629% → 62%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
29.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
29.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 9 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 5 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
32.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 3 yds to the WMU 48Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+52
62.0%
Jalen Buckley 52 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
53.7%
Marion Lukes run for 17 yds to the CMU 41 Marion Lukes fumbled, recovered by WMU Aaron Wofford No Huddle Lukes,Marion rush middle for 17 yards gain to the CMU40 fumbled by Lukes,Marion at CMU40 forced by Lovely,Keni-H recovered by WMU Wofford,Aaron at CMU40 Wofford,Aaron return for loss of 1 yard to the CMU41, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:4764% → 89%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
88.9%
Leroy Thomas 41 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1418% → 13%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.3%
Sam Hicks run for 5 yds to the CMU 20Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
82.8%
Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tristan Mattson) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
84.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
87.1%
Jake Walrath punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 28FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 5:0089% → 97%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 33Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
88.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+24
87.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 24 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
90.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass complete short right to Sambucci,Anthony for 5 yards to the CMU41 (Jones,Trey) PENALTY WMU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Gideon,Jacob) 5 yards from CMU46 to WMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+13
89.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 13 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
90.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the CMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
94.7%
Central Michigan Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Maurice White) to the CMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
95.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the CMU 14Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
95.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the CMU 13Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+4
95.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the CMU 9Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+27
97.1%
Palmer Domschke 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:203% → 3%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
96.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to B.J. HarrisSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Jase Bauer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:1797% → 98%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
97.3%
H. Wolff takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
97.5%
H. Wolff takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:53
Jalen Buckley 52 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)
+29.4
TD · Q4 7:51
Leroy Thomas 41 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Palmer Domschke Kick)
+24.7
TD · Q3 2:04
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 67 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
-23.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com